Updated ACC Game 1: Clemson at Miami

Dec 21, 2008, 9:10 AM

Pretty much the same, if you saw it last time. Just updated RPI numbers and quashing rumors of McClinton's suspension:

Who: No. 25 Clemson (11-0, No. 7 RPI, No. 54 SoS) at Miami (6-2, No. 21 RPI, No. 8 SoS)
When: Sunday, 7:45 p.m.
Where: Coral Gables, Fla.
Is it on TV? Yes, nationally on FS Network, FS South or Sunshine Network

OK, folks ... this is where it gets serious. And God's honest truth, I really don't like playing Miami to open the ACC season.

Why's that? Because Miami is a house of horrors when it comes to Clemson basketball. Remember last year? A 75-72 loss. How about 2006 ... remember the 62-38 blowout? The year before that, a 69-65 loss. We've only won once in Miami, back in 1995.

Yuck! What's the deal? Miami has a tradition of cranking out top-quality guards. We have a tradition of making top-quality guards look even better. The combination is almost always lethal for Clemson.

Hi, Tigers! Remember me?

Do they have decent guards this year? Does Steve Spurrier need to get new tires for the team bus after throwing folks under it? Miami has a living terror in the minds of Clemson fans, senior guard Jack McClinton (17 ppg, 2 reb, 3 ast). I can still see him sinking us in Miami without breaking a sweat. This year, he's been launching about 8 three's per game, and he had 27 points against UConn. McClinton's fast, a solid shooter, but he can be hounded into turnovers ... or as Ohio State learned, into smacking an opponent. We can only thank the Almighty this is the last year we see him. BTW, there's no truth to the rumor that he might serve a one-game suspension tonight. He'll be there.

McClinton has capable inside help from Dwayne Collins (11 ppg, 8 reb, 2 ast). Collins is Miami's version of Trevor Booker, though his rebounding had tailed off in the past 4 games.

Believe it or not, those are the only Canes scoring in double figures. Guard Lance Hurdle (9 ppg, 1 reb, 3 ast) is close, and guard James Dews (8 ppg, 3 reb) has actually been the team's top scorer the past three games as people try to seal off McClinton. Dew blows hot and cold from 3-point land, going 5-6 in one game and 0-5 in the next. If he's hitting early, Clemson will need to get on him.

Freshman forward Cyrus McGowan (7 ppg, 6 reb) is a possible threat. He's hit double figures in some games, then disappeared in others. But when he's playing, he's a beast on the offensive boards.

Which will it be?

Overall, the Canes are scoring 75 points per game and snagging 42 rebounds. They average as many assists as turnovers. They play 7 deep generally, and once you get past McClinton, shooting becomes streaky. Their free throw shooting is no better than our's. If they're having a cold night from the outside, we've got a good chance. Miami doesn't outrun anyone. They just make it difficult to shoot, then count on their guards to get open on the other end.

So how do we stop McClinton? Actually, we don't have to. UConn let him score 27 points and still won by double digits. Or we could do like Ohio State did. Put Andre Young on him and hound him mercilessly until he takes a swing at our defender. He sits the rest of the game, and Miami is left with no go-to guy at the end. Essentially, Miami is willing to hang around until the last 5 minutes, but needs McClinton to lead the offense at that point. If we stuff him then, we can take the Canes.

Big impression

What are our chances? It's an interesting matchup. Clemson is led by Trevor Booker (15 ppg, 9 reb, 2 ast, 3 blk, 0 foul-outs) on the inside. He'll have his hands full with Collins, though. If Miami spends its time worrying about him, though, it may create opportunities for Ray Sykes (9 ppg, 6 reb).

KC Rivers (14 ppg, 7 reb, 2 ast, 2 st) is finding his range after a slow start, and had 10 boards in his last game. If Terrence Oglesby (12 ppg, 45 pct from 3-point land) can find the range early, it will force Miami to play its guards further out. This creats opportunities for Demontez Stitt (9 ppg, 3 reb, 4 ast, one amazing dunk this week) to have the kind of game he had against Illinois, shredding the Miami interior.

Miami reminds me a lot of Illinois, in fact. Solid guards, capable inside players and a lot of ball movement to find the open shot. We'll need to stay close early and hope they wear down toward the end. And we'll need to hit our free throws, something we've NEVER done at Miami.

Who said I can't dunk?

So, what's the verdict? Clemson has trouble with multiple guard offenses. Miami has trouble when defenses play off McClinton and shut down everyone else, like UConn did.

Clemson's press won't stop Miami, though it might force some errors. However, it will tire out the Canes, meaning we can limit everyone else in the second half.

Ken Pomeroy has it as a 2-point loss for Clemson, owing to a slower game tempo. Look for this one to be the Illinois game all over, without the 15,000 screaming fans. Hey, it's Christmas in Miami...go check Santa on the beach!

A decent-shooting Clemson will win this game. A cold Clemson will lose. It's really that simple. But after it's over, we'll know just how well the pre-season prepared us.

Message was edited by: RevDodd®

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Barometer wise, I think 10 or more points out of Sykes along with an even rebounding effort as a team and we win. It's not as random as it appears. If he scores they will have a heckuva time doubling in the post. I would even run a couple of plays early for him, particullarly if we like matchup against Asbury or McGowan, and see if that opens things up for Booker and the perimeter.

Per usual, its the first game all year where we are an underdog, getting +3 1/2. This a game that an 11-0 top 25 team should be expected to win. Of course, because of our early season schedule, we aren't and don't really know how we match up against ACC caliber talent in league play. Which of the ACC teams (on the road) wouldn't trouble be brewing against? Thus yur scairt and say yur scairt. This is the point I have been making since we started this conversation. After 11 games, we should know and we don't.

Updated ACC Game 1: Clemson at Miami

Good analysis and solid reasons. Let's hope Miami decides

make that maybe 12-0******

Fantastic breakdown Rev...

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