With time to kill: A look ahead...

May 7, 2013, 2:01 PM

We're coming up on a bate of games that the Tigers should win ... and if we wish to host a regional, we'd BETTER win. But will they be enough?

As usual, the answer lies elsewhere. A handful of teams are positioned nicely to host regions, and alas, many are also in the South.

Here, in a nutshell, is how things could work out ... assuming Clemson wins the games it should and goes into Tally at 38-15:

Our competition: Figure that eight of these teams will host supers, so they really aren't competition at all:

Likely Supers

UNC, Vanderbilt, Virginia, LSU, Oregon/Ore. State, Fullerton, FSU/NC State, Louisville/UCLA

Note: FSU and NC State could easily fall to region hosts, allowing both UCLA and Louisville to super. That would make the region-centric folks very happy ... and avoid the 2 supers within 30 miles of each other that UNC and the Wuffies would bring.

Assuming all those would at least host regions, that leaves 5 more spots. The major competition for those: Clemson, UCS, Miss State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Arizona State, Indiana, Rice and Pitt.

20 hopefuls for 16 spots looks pretty good. Miami and GTech seem to have played themselves out for now, and only a strong ACC showing (like reaching the finals) could bail them out. Ditto Florida in the SEC.

The large question is, will the ACC be given 5 of the 16 regions? UNC, UVa and FSU look pretty solid, and the Wuffies are a mortal lock for at least a region. That leaves Clemson as the best remaining ACC bet.

Would the SEC get 5 bids? If so Vandy and LSU are mortal locks for the Supers, leaving Miss State, UCS and Arkansas.

Alas, that leaves 6 spots for the rest of the country, and the NCAA isn't likely to go there. So .... I'm betting either the ACC or SEC gets dumped on. If Clemson wishes to remove any worry of being the dumpee, we must take the series in Tally. this would work especially well if the Noles can take the series this weekend at the Wuffies.

Assume the Noles take 2-3 in Raleigh this weekend the Atlantic Division would stand FSU 18-9, Clemson 17-10 and NC State 16-10. With series loses to both FSU and Clemson, the Wuffies would be a non-factor, and if Clemson took 2-3, we'd hold the tiebreaker on both Atlantic foes.

A 40-win, Atlantic division, Top 12 RPI, Top 6 SOS Clemson could not be ignored.