Thursday's Game: NC State vs. Clemson

Mar 9, 2010, 10:29 AM

Bump with the official line

I have no idea what this is...but I found it looking for pictures of Horner.
Who: NC State (17-14, 5-11 ACC, 11th seed) vs. Clemson (21-9, 9-7 ACC 6th seed)
Where: Greensboro Coliseum
When: Thursday, 9 p.m. or so
Is it on TV? Yep, if you get Raycom. We should be on TV from here on out.
The Line: Tigers by 7

Get back out there and play, Demontez!

When Last We Met: A few notable things occurred in Clemson's 73-70 win in Raleigh. It was the first time in 14 tries the Tigers beat an ACC foe after topping a ranked opponent. The game marked the coming-out party of Julius Mays, who had 17 points against us. It also was the game Demontez Stitt messed up his foot and was effectively lost for three weeks.

Oh yeah! That was the game we had a 20-point lead and nearly blew it! That's one way to look at it. Another is that Clemson dug down deep and stopped State in the last 2 minutes to get the win....something Duke couldn't do in Raleigh.
So, how have the Wuffies done since then? Actually, State hasn't looked all that bad in the past couple of weeks. They beat Wake Forest, got a road win at Miami, and gave Maryland and GTech a good game. On the other hand, they did lose to UNC by double digits in Raleigh, and aside from the Miami game, they haven't won on the road since early January.

But the Wuffies haven't given up on coach Sidney Lowe and anyone expecting a walkover to the next round of the tourney needs to rethink.

You think it's easy to dribble with hands like these?
Javier Gonzales (10 ppg, 4 ast, 3.5 TO) remains the point guard for State. And he still has trouble with pressure defense. FSU got 6 TOs off him, Gtech got 7. We only got 5, but that's because Stitt was out most of the second half...and because Lowe switched to Julius Mays (5 ppg, 2 ast, 2 TO). Gonzales looked more comfortable as the season moved along, and Mays sorft of disappeared. His game gainst Clemson as his last in double figures.

The same is true for one-time sharpshooter Scott Wood (8 ppg, 35 pct from the arc). Remember how skert folks were after he lit up FSU for 31? He got 11 against Clemson and has hit double figures only 1 time since then, vs. GTech. He's still got the range, but folks are smart enough not to leave him alone now.

Inside, the Wuffies are led by 6-8 junior Tracy Smith (17 ppg, 7 reb) who's put up consistent numbers all year. He does a lot of the inside work while senior forward Dennis Horner (12 ppg, 5 reb, 2 points vs. Clemson last game) sort of wanders around the baseline looking for mismatches. Still he's only fouled out once in his last 4 gaqmes, so he's getting better.
Freshman swing man Scott Wood had 11 points in the last game against Clemson. It was also the last time he saw double figures, and his minutes have been dwindling. The same is true of Farnold Degan (11 vs. Clemson last time). The Wuffies have been keeping the same guys on the floor more, which has given them more consistency. Also CJ Williams (8 ppg the last 5 games) has been getting a lot more play, stealing time from his teammates.

NC State's offense isn't hard to figure out

As a team, the Wuffies continue their methodical attack on offense. They have a very good halfcourt offense and prefer to keep things in the 60s if possible. Pressuring Gonzales, especially when there's only one other ball handler on the floor, has been effective, and I'd expect the Tigers to go with what got us a 20-point lead in Raleigh.

On defense, the Wuffies come with a variety of sets, from a lukewarm press to a fairly effective 1-2-2 zone. They aren't especially tall inside, but can pose problems ... especially if our long-range shots aren't falling. When an opponent is able to work the ball sindie and back out for successful jumpers, games get ugly quick. Virginia and Virginia Tech both did this with solid results in the past few weeks. I imagine Clemson will try the same.

How will the Tigers respond? On paper, NC State doesn't match up well with Clemson at all. Our guards are quicker and/or taller, we press against a team that hates pressure, and we're as tall and faster inside.

At least Trevor won't be playing Chas McFarland again...

All-ACC forward Trevor Booker (15 ppg, 8 reb, one pi$$ed-off performance against Wake) won't have to worry about being hacked up by Jason Voorhees like he was last Sunday, and I expect he'll be eager to atone for his 6-point showing. Knowing he'll be smothered inside, I anticipate Jerai Grant (11 ppg the last 10 games) to get several opportunities to shine. The Wuffies tendency to pack in will also give David Potter, Tanner Smith and Milt Jennings good looks from mid-range. Hopefully, Smith will continue his resurgence from the Wake game.

On the outside, Demontez Stitt (14 ppg the last 6 games, 4 ast) must have a better shooting night than against Wake. He and Andre Young were a combined 1-12 from the arc, and that's just not going to cut it against State.

On defense, we'll press ... full court, the extended 1-3-1 press trying to force the ball to the sidelines. Look for the Wuffies to eschew the fast break, just to make sure they get the ball across halfcourt. And look for Mays to get more playing time, since he seems better suited to handle the pressure.

The Tigers will take transition baskets any time we can get them, but it's likely we'll need to work the high-low between Booker and the guards. As an aside, Potter Young and Jennings hit 66 percent of their 3-point attempts in this coliseum earlier this season, so the rims are to our liking.

Not this time, Wuffies!

So, what's going to happen? Assuming the Wuffies don't mess up Stitt's foot again, We should wear down an improved, but outmatched, Woofie team. Count on Op to substitute early liberally, hoping to keep legs fresh. If we can jump on them like we did in Raleigh, a lot of folks will get minutes.

If State comes out inspired and our long shots aren't falling, this will be a dogfight inside. In the end, I believe our pressure will rattle Gonzales and Mays enough to give us some easy points and CLemson lives to fight another day.

Message was edited by: RevDodd®