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110%er [7153]
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Here is why attentive Americans throw the B.S. flag on Bidenomics
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Mar 12, 2024, 9:00 PM
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Mark Twain’s old axiom keeps on being worth repeating.
It is easier to fool someone than to convince someone that he is a fool.
The Biden Economic Miracle gets laid to rest, thanks to data from labor statistics and other organizations that report economic data, the manipulations from our federal government to deceive Americans should make everyone skeptical (at the least) and outright distrustful (more appropriate).
Especially for gullible lefties, read and learn.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inside-most-ridiculous-jobs-report-recent-history-12-million-immigrant-jobs-added-one
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Legend [19933]
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Re: Here is why attentive Americans throw the B.S. flag on Bidenomics
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Mar 12, 2024, 9:18 PM
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Slight of hand statistical politics.
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All-TigerNet [13153]
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Tiggity will be here soon to refute all of these facts.***
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Mar 12, 2024, 9:52 PM
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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Has anyone ever considered the BLS is corrupt(ed)?
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Mar 13, 2024, 4:48 AM
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A branch or division of the Federal government is tasked with being the sole source for economic data that impacts not only elections on who leads the federal government, but more importantly collects and distributes the inflation data used by the Federal Reserve to decide how much interest the federal government has to pay?
With $34T in debt, there are hundreds of billions of dollars at stake for the federal government and they collect the data that determines what interest they will pay?
Honestly I think rates are going nowhere fast because Powell doesn't trust the data. I wouldn't. There are hundreds of billions of reasons not to trust BLS data.
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All-In [31907]
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PRELIMINARY...
Mar 13, 2024, 8:15 AM
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look it up in the dictionary
Come on man...you've posted this crap numerous times and I've explained to you how it works and I don't think you ever reply...just post about it again the next month.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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And yet, it is historically almost always revised lower. That's a fact.***
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Mar 13, 2024, 10:41 AM
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All-In [31907]
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No, it most certainly is not a fact...
Mar 13, 2024, 11:45 AM
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in fact it's an incorrect statement, historically. Assuming by the term "historically" we mean past many years and not the last 1.5 yrs.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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Concede that. Perhaps I should have stated "during the current administration".***
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Mar 13, 2024, 11:49 AM
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All-In [31907]
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When the numbers were revised up in earlier Biden years...
Mar 13, 2024, 11:53 AM
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what was the conspiracy then?'
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110%er [7153]
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Re: When the numbers were revised up in earlier Biden years...
Mar 13, 2024, 10:01 PM
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U B grasping, dude.
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All-In [31907]
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Right...when preliminary numbers revise downwards it's...
Mar 13, 2024, 10:28 PM
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clearly for political reasons and when they revise up, well...
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110%er [7153]
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Re: Has anyone ever considered the BLS is corrupt(ed)?
Mar 14, 2024, 10:34 AM
[ in reply to Has anyone ever considered the BLS is corrupt(ed)? ] |
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Dear Tiggity®,
Indeed, hundreds of billions of reasons to not trust the BLS.
Yet, many tens of millions of Americans drink up the BLS statistics like sheep drink dirty water.
Oh well …
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Oculus Spirit [97738]
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The older I get the more and more I see conflicts of interest that
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Mar 14, 2024, 11:35 AM
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others just seem to ignore. Heck, even in my own job I see massive conflicts of interest.
Whether it's in my job, or elsewhere, the problems are not fixed because of one thing, money. If it's cheaper and/or more convenient to ignore the problem, it's ignored.
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110%er [7153]
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Re: The older I get the more and more I see conflicts of interest that
Mar 16, 2024, 8:59 PM
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When you are so obviously correct, I get depressed.
One extra cocktail is needed.
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Orange Blooded [2482]
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Re: Here is why attentive Americans throw the B.S. flag on Bidenomics
Mar 13, 2024, 6:12 AM
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It's this simple. Things are too expensive and people feel it. End of that story. On to another fact, it would have been similar had Trump been the president. He won't be a miracle worker when he wins.
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Orange Blooded [4976]
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Re: Here is why attentive Americans throw the B.S. flag on Bidenomics
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Mar 13, 2024, 6:37 AM
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So just bend over and take it?
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Orange Blooded [2482]
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Re: Here is why attentive Americans throw the B.S. flag on Bidenomics
Mar 13, 2024, 6:42 AM
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It's called reality. It's always a work in progress.
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110%er [7153]
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Re: Here is why attentive Americans throw the B.S. flag on Bidenomics
Mar 14, 2024, 10:43 AM
[ in reply to Re: Here is why attentive Americans throw the B.S. flag on Bidenomics ] |
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So, has the standard for TDS’er politics become ‘OBiden Handlers Administration’s bureaucracy isn’t much worse than that same bureaucracy under the Trump administration, so we are good’?
Why hasn’t the OBiden Handlers Administration risen to the need, fired the bums at BLS and the crooked / incompetent high level managers at the other bureaucracies, and started reporting the truth?
I suppose none of this matters as long as Orange Man Bad does not make it back into the WH.
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All-In [31907]
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Your ability to illustrate yourself what you accuse others of...
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Mar 13, 2024, 8:13 AM
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is impressive.
If you read that piece and were convinced of anything, then it only serves to illustrate your ignorance on the subject matter. I've posted on this topic a number of times, but folks that make these kind of comments are commenting on the PRELIMINARY data that gets FINALIZED over the following 2 months. The jobs data is based on 2 different kind of survey models and all of the model data isn't in yet when the PRELIMINARY figures are released.
I know the data from my company almost never is submitted prior to the close of the PRELIMINARY data release.
Look in the BLS tables and note the (P) beside the Feb jobs numbers...just like just about every other Consumer Price and Producer Price table.
bls.gov
Perhaps spend some time educating yourself by reading more and challenging different opinions before coming to your own opinion. Or at least find some better sources of information.
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Heisman Winner [137978]
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What's wrong with zerohedge and Tyler Durden?
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Mar 13, 2024, 8:21 AM
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Lulz.
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110%er [7153]
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Re: Your ability to illustrate yourself what you accuse others of...
Mar 13, 2024, 10:06 PM
[ in reply to Your ability to illustrate yourself what you accuse others of... ] |
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I’ve already proved that, with respect to a working knowledge about the simplest basics of the CPI, you and 19b are Charlatans.
Remember the beef vs chicken price / consumption exercise? You guys flunked spectacularly. Worse still, you tried to B.S. your way past your obvious lack of understanding how the index works. Reciting the ‘basket of commodities’ etc line didn’t disguise anything.
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All-In [31907]
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You really bring up the CPI discussion again...
Mar 13, 2024, 10:35 PM
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LOL...ok man...I give. You understand all of this stuff and I clearly don't. I only analyze this kind of stuff for a living, but you go girl.
(Hint folks that understand this kind of stuff laugh at your posts)
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110%er [7153]
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Re: You really bring up the CPI discussion again...
Mar 14, 2024, 10:46 AM
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Good heavens, if you analyze hints like the CPI for a living, but yet don’t understand how the basics of how CPI actually works, then I’d recommend changing jobs before your boss finds out.
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All-In [31907]
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Well...
Mar 14, 2024, 12:02 PM
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I'm the CEO, so my boss is the Board of Directors in Germany. Safe to say they're pretty happy with me at the moment, so I feel ok about my job security 
Trust me when I say this to you...you are the worst kind of clueless...clueless and you don't know it.
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110%er [7153]
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Re: Well...
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Mar 16, 2024, 9:16 PM
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It doesn’t matter if you’re King Tut.
You flunked the CPI test; your inability to recognize how to calculate the CPI given a set of just two different food types, with two different price points (a pre-inflation price -&- a post inflation price), and a fixed amount of overall food consumption from the pre-inflation year to the post-inflation year, reveals that you are a phony with respect to your self-proclaimed ‘knowledgeable’ status as far as the derivation of government indices are concerned. My scenario for inflation was the simplest such scenario from which a CPI calculation could be done in a scenario when prices actually changed -&- in which the ratio of consumption for each food group had also changed.
The scenario which I had provided was analogous to a first grade kid who was asked to spell cat. The first grader had learned the alphabet (yay!), could make the sounds associated with each letter (yay again!), knew what a cat is (yay yay!), but yet couldn’t figure how to spell cat.
Very glad, however, that, despite a lack of foundational understanding, you can still make a good living while talking about the CPI. I bear no ill will towards you.
Clearly, though, you are no where near an expert on CPI. If your Bosrd of Directors in Germany ever seeks your expertise on how the CPI actually works, deploy deflect and B.S. tactics.
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Standout [312]
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You are a great example of the impact Trump had on the country.
Mar 16, 2024, 9:27 PM
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He made stupid people feel empowered.
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Orange Blooded [4790]
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Re: Here is why attentive Americans throw the B.S. flag on Bidenomics
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Mar 13, 2024, 8:31 AM
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I'm sure it's just a coincidence that the numbers get revised down every money and never up. Kinda like how every blue state got overcounted for the census and every red one undercounted. Just a coincidence. So get out of here with your fancy stats and independent thought and start believing everything you're told like the other mouth breathers on this thread.
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All-In [31907]
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Hasn't been revised up recently, but historically it gets revised up a lot...
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Mar 13, 2024, 8:39 AM
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from what I've read, more of the survey data comes in later than it used to.
Everyone wants to talk about the PRELIMINARY data getting revised and no one seems to want to talk about the need to stop treating preliminary data releases as the final figure.
But yeah....most be some grand conspiracy to help the White House politically when the numbers get revised down 1 month later. I guess when the numbers get revised up, it was a conspiracy to hurt the WH politically?
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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When was the last time they got revised 'up'...?***
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Mar 13, 2024, 10:44 AM
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Heisman Winner [137978]
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As has been stated multiple times...why does it matter, if the actual numbers
Mar 13, 2024, 10:53 AM
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come out a month later? It's not like the actual numbers are being held until after an election, or after some other defining political moment. There's preliminary numbers, and there's actual numbers that follow roughly a month later. Month after month after month. Explain where the conspiracy is.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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It's a false and failing attempt to reign in inflation that directly affects any
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Mar 13, 2024, 10:58 AM
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currently proposed fiscal policy. The 'dollar' keeps shrinking.
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Heisman Winner [137978]
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Provide any semblance of proof of this statement.***
Mar 13, 2024, 11:05 AM
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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FED decisions on rate changes... It's a frickin' daily topic.***
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Mar 13, 2024, 11:20 AM
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Heisman Winner [137978]
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Show any sort of proof that Fed decisions are made on preliminary numbers
Mar 13, 2024, 11:29 AM
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and not the previous month's actual numbers. You're making this up. It's time to tap out, amigo. You have no idea what numbers Powell and the Board base their decisions on, and to even get to that made up assumption, you also have to make up an assumption that preliminary numbers are politicized and favor one party over another. You have no evidence of either.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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I watched a hour+ CSpan coverage of Powell a few weeks ago. These numbers
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Mar 13, 2024, 11:43 AM
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were MOST DEFINITELY discussed. I haven't researched the politics of the BLS head. However, they can't ever seem to get it right.
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All-In [31907]
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That's just simply wrong...
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Mar 13, 2024, 12:07 PM
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the do not base decisions based on one's month's preliminary data. They look for trends and analyze movement over longer-terms.
You most certainly did not hear Powell say that's rates are going to stay high because Jan seasonally-adjusted preliminary jobs numbers were +323k and then him change message when they were revised to +229k.
Here's the statement from the BLS at the bottom of every jobs report. Do you really think the Fed Chair doesn't understand this?
3. Why does the establishment survey have revisions? The establishment survey revises published estimates to improve its data series by incorporating additional information that was not available at the time of the initial publication of the estimates. The establishment survey revises its initial monthly estimates twice, in the immediately succeeding 2 months, to incorporate additional sample receipts from respondents in the survey and recalculated seasonal adjustment factors. For more information on the monthly revisions, please visit www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section7. On an annual basis, the establishment survey incorporates a benchmark revision that re-anchors estimates to nearly complete employment counts available from unemployment insurance tax records. The benchmark helps to control for sampling and modeling errors in the estimates. For more information on the annual benchmark revision, please visit www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart.htm.
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Scout Team [152]
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Re: That's just simply wrong...
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Mar 13, 2024, 12:18 PM
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IDK - What does the FED think? Do they use the data????? Let's ask CNN
New York CNN
The Fed is fed up with data revisions
Federal Reserve officials have said countless times they take a “data-dependent approach” to their policy decisions, including their current conundrum of when to slash interest rates. But what if the data isn’t as dependable as it once was?
That’s what appears to be happening — and it’s making central bankers’ jobs a lot harder.
“We have to make decisions in real time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late last year. “Whatever data is released, that’s the data I have to use. The problem with data is it gets revised.”
Published 10:00 AM EST, Wed January 31, 2024
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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Shhhhh... They're on a roll.***
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Mar 13, 2024, 12:36 PM
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All-In [31907]
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Wish you had linked the article....
Mar 13, 2024, 3:02 PM
[ in reply to Re: That's just simply wrong... ] |
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That was a good find as it talks to a lot of what's in this thread....
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/31/economy/data-revisions-fed-rate-changes/index.html
It's a fair point that Waller is saying they use the preliminary data...I find that surprising/hard to believe, but he clearly said it.
To the point I was making above...SOLOS...you asked about is it ever revised up...
As is the case with any month’s jobs report, the change in employment is subject to three revisions. The first two come in the next two month’s reports. For August 2021’s headline employment number those first two revisions meant the number of jobs added was closer to 483,000, more than double what the BLS first estimated.The third and final revision comes in the next calendar year from when the initial estimate was released as the BLS reconciles the survey data it collected to arrive at the initial estimates with the actual data it subsequently receives from state labor departments. For August 2021, that final revision brought the monthly change in employment up to 663,000, a 428,000 increase from the very first estimate.
Also the end of the piece speaks to what leads to revisions.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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How's inflation fared since August 2021? How many of those jobs were government?
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Mar 13, 2024, 3:29 PM
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I think we're talking about two different methods of looking at the situation. 'Statistics' or 'reality'.
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All-In [31907]
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We've been discussing why revised figures aren't a conspiracy....
Mar 13, 2024, 3:39 PM
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I guess you're ready to admit you were wrong and move on to a different topic now?
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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See my link below... Not a "conspiracy", just business as usual.***
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Mar 13, 2024, 4:22 PM
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110%er [7153]
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Govt data coincidentally gets consistently bad as Biden re-election looms
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Mar 13, 2024, 10:13 PM
[ in reply to Wish you had linked the article.... ] |
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Do you really believe that the recent year+ plus of initially overstated jobs numbers and understated inflation is just random coincidence?
No coincidence that the federal bureaucracy is doing backflips to get Biden re-elected?
That’s the point of the initial misleading numbers.
As per that tried and true old axiom:
A lie has run halfway around the world before the truth gets its shoes on.
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All-In [31907]
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Ryes, I really believe there is no effort to mislead with the....
Mar 13, 2024, 10:27 PM
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Preliminary figures
You either didn't read the posts in this thread or just like to believe things that fit a narrative and. It based on any understanding or, God forbid, proof.
You embody what is wrong with folks so easy duped.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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Like the FED...? Just like a plethora of current stats... they're false.***
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Mar 14, 2024, 2:21 AM
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All-In [31907]
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You can search Tnet if you want, but...
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Mar 13, 2024, 11:48 AM
[ in reply to When was the last time they got revised 'up'...?*** ] |
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because I did the digging some months back and posted a long period of data.
A lot has been made about the revisions over this last year because I believe the PRELIMINARY data was higher than the FINAL data for every month in 2023. I think the last time the PRELIMINARY data was lower than the FINAL data (revised up) was about 15 months ago.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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...and the last time before that?***
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Mar 13, 2024, 11:51 AM
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All-In [31907]
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You're going to have to go find that for yourself...
Mar 13, 2024, 11:55 AM
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but historically, the revisions go up about the same as they go down...over a long period.
It's a fixed seasonally-adjusted model and the numbers come from surveys. There is 0 proof that the economist nerds at the BLS are purposefully releasing false information. Come on...
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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All-In [42196]
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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I guess all those dramatically increased prices are just false "conspiracies".***
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Mar 13, 2024, 11:01 AM
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All-In [42196]
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Ya know...
Mar 13, 2024, 10:45 AM
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I'm not really down with Biden's economy either, even though I'm doing just fine.
But let's get to this:
"It is easier to fool someone than to convince someone that he is a fool."
You've stated before that you don't think Trump ever lies nor will you believe anything anyone says about his wrongdoing. You've stated that. You also said he's not a phony.
For you to believe that about any person on this earth, let alone a man like Donald Trump, proves exactly what Mark Twain was talking about. Twain was superb at calling out BS and applying skepticism to politicians.
You are EXACTLY who he is talking about. If you can't look at a man, particularly Trump, and see anything to criticize or approach with skepticism, you are the gullible fool.
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Hall of Famer [24809]
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Yea, sure... It's all T-Rump's fault. I think you've said it enough. FOOL!***
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Mar 13, 2024, 11:06 AM
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110%er [7153]
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Hyperbole doesnt help to make your case
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Mar 14, 2024, 11:15 AM
[ in reply to Ya know... ] |
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Hyperbole continues to diminish whatever value you had hoped to achieve from your posts.
So you assert that I’ve stated that Trump never lies? That I don’t believe that anything that anyone says about one of his wrongdoings is not believable?
This belief of yours is a reflection of a triggered person whose emotions have overwhelmed his cognitive abilities.
I’ve stated numerous times that I didn’t like Trump when he was a private citizen. Although I saw nothing wrong with his real estate ventures and self-branding endeavors, his extramarital behavior was disgraceful and Trump University was his ego totally out of control. I don’t believe that Trump University was a purposeful scam to defraud students, however, just as I don’t believe that Trump Airlines, or whatever he called it, was a purposeful scam to defraud investors.
Trump the political leader, has been outstanding.
As for the financial well being of people who are employed in the university system, federal bureaucracy, public school system, or NGO’s that make their money by servicing governmental agencies / bureaucrats and political parties, of course they are doing well under the OBiden Handlers Administration. The high rate of inflation under the current WH administration works to transfer wealth from private citizens (especially retirees whose living is significantly based upon their savings) to the aforementioned groups. Not surprisingly, the people in those aforementioned groups are happy with the IBiden Handlers Administration.
At the same time, Trump-the-Political-Leader’s oft-stated intent to reduce the size of the federal bureaucracy, eliminate at least one bureaucracy (the Dept of Education immediately comes to mind), and to reform many of the bureaucracies has created abject hatred from many employees whose very comfortable livings are threatened if Trump returns to the WH.
Public school employees and those retirees from the public school system who have friends still employed in the system hate that Trump strongly encourages the growth of private schools as competition to (corrupt, out-of-balance priorities) public schools. Trump’s return to the WH makes the work life less comfortable for public school employees. It is no surprise that these people hate Trump.
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All-In [42196]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 38274
Joined: 11/30/98
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Standout [312]
TigerPulse: 89%
Posts: 671
Joined: 8/3/23
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Yep, youre evidence of that.***
Mar 8, 2016, 12:51 PM
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