Re: YAY! Measles are back

Oculus Spirit [97751]

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Polio is interesting. It is making a comeback, mainly in Africa and 3rd

Feb 28, 2024, 9:31 AM [ in reply to Re: YAY! Measles are back ]

world countries. Most polio-cases worldwide are now "vaccine-derived" polio cases. Back in the day when they made polio vaccines, most people in the US had the more expensive vaccine. They came up with a cheaper, oral vaccine that was used heavily in Africa and 3rd world countries. It worked BUT....the virus escaped humans, mutated in a host, and has returned to infect those who had the oral vaccine (mostly), and it's just as severe as the original strain.

I don't see this being an issue in the US.

So many people are clueless as to why people live longer today. They think it's because of medical advances that keep people alive longer, and that's NOT THE REASON. 400 years ago people lived on average 29 years, roughly. Today average life expectancy is in the 70's. Few people know that if you lived to see your 20th birthday party 400 years ago, your odds of living to 65yo is roughly THE SAME as today. Life expectancy was so low because HALF OF CHILDREN died before reaching 20yo. We have this idea today that children are healthy, have strong immune systems, and as such they rarely die. THAT IS DUE TO VACCINES. Without vaccines, kids have weaker immune systems, and die far more than any other age group until you get into the 70's. This is why children are targeted to take vaccines as a child as taking vaccines provides better life expectancy. People don't need to have 6, 8, 10+ kids anymore. They did hundreds of years ago though because people knew HALF OF KIDS never make adulthood. Statistically speaking, the death of a child (today) has a greater impact on life expectancy than any other age group. It's all weighted (statistics). In the US, life expectancy has dropped 2 full years since the pandemic. People think that's from all the old people who have died. It's not. Averages are weighted. In the US, the covid drop in life expectancy didn't come from the old people dying more. It came from those in the 30-50yo age range (mostly) dying at rates 25% or more than average. AND children dying at rates almost as high ABOVE AVERAGE.

If 100,000 people age 75-85yo normally die in a year, and covid comes and it kills 20,000 additional old people, that's a 20% excess death count. 20% more than normal died that year in that age group. Fine. Now if 10,000 people between 30-40yo normally die, and only 2,000 people die from covid in that age group, that's only 2,000 deaths, versus 20,000 deaths. So some would say covid is 10 times more deadly for old people. BUT, those 2,000 deaths in the 30-40yo age group ALSO REPRESENTS THE SAME EXCESS DEATH RATE/BURDEN of 20%. Now say only 1,000 kids die from 0-10yo in a normal year and after covid 200 children extra die from covid, covid is 100 times more deadly for old people than children. Again, fine. But then say only 200 children die from covid in the 0-10 age group for a total increase from 1,000 to 1,200 deaths. That's AGAIN 20% excess deaths IN THAT AGE GROUP. The ONLY age group NOT to see 20% excess deaths during covid so far has been teenagers. The percentage of excess deaths of children under 10yo, and all age groups other than the 10-20yo group, have ALL SEEN SIMILAR excess death burdens, RELATIVE to their age group. And THIS is why you NEVER see excess deaths broken down by age, at least in any data from the CDC. You have to manually access the data and make your own charts. CDC isn't providing it broken down by age. But when you break down the numbers, the 2 year drop in life expectancy becomes clear. The 30-50yo adult age group(s) have seen the highest excess deaths, followed by older people, followed by children and there's not much difference in the excess numbers as percentages in these age groups. We're talking a range from 15-20%, all fairly close. Teenagers are the safest from dying from covid, as an age group.

When you look only at absolute numbers, and toss out relativity, it makes things difficult to understand. But if you pay attention to relativity in the numbers, things make much more sense. Most people don't appreciate how often old people die, and how infrequently younger people die, today. Likewise, few people appreciate how often children died and how infrequently middle-aged people died 400 years ago. If you look solely at total numbers, you end up being misinformed of the impact. And even a 5% increase in children not getting vaccines, can have an overall impact on life expectancy greater than covid, albeit with less deaths. And this may be the public health legacy covid leaves in its wake. And that's sad.