Re: Well, it looks like War is now inevitable.

I agree. On the matter of Ukraine, Biden's done well. Strange as it may seem, Biden's got more than a little Reagan in him...at least in the fact that he's an old-school scrapper and will never, ever back down from a fight, and is deft enough with his international diplomacy he's prodded that milling herd of cats that is NATO into (mostly) swinging behind him against Russia. I'll give him an "A" for that, gold star. That was Reagan all the way, who really got up in the Soviet Union's face after a decade of ineffectual "detente" and convinced NATO to back him.

At home and with Joe's domestic messaging...well, won't go there. Not good and there's a reason he's carrying a 42.9% approval rating and it ain't just inflation, and here Joe's '80's instincts seem to have left him hopelessly behind in terms of messaging and outlook.

But Ukraine? Biden's done really well and Putin has run into an absolute crowdfunded meatgrinder there in Ukraine, and Biden's pretty much owned him across the board since this whole conflict began...actually, it started with the US warning a dubious world Putin was about to invade, and when, and even what Putin was going to say when he justified it.

As far as proxy wars go, this was one of the most successful I've ever seen. Joe's literally erased half Putin's army (at least), caused them to blow off something like two-thirds of their smart munitions (which they cannot replace now that they're under sanctions and cannot import the tech they need to build more missiles and smart bombs), and gutted their inventories of tanks, armored vehicles, and aircraft. And more to the point, he's crushed their brand. Their military looks like an inept clown show, their equipment has been revealed to be pure crap, and Putin has been revealed as just another strongman thug, not the smug, scheming master-manipulator puppetmaster he's always sold himself as.

It could end Putin's reign. It's certainly going to kneecap it. The days of Russia being any kind of superpower are over. It's a profound shift in the global stage.

quozzel

Hall of Famer [20542]

TigerPulse: 100%

Posts: 11687

Joined: 10/15/02

Re: I see it going the opposite for China.

Oct 12, 2022, 1:14 PM

There are apparently strong suggestions both the PLA and Taiwanese military are paying extreme attention to what's going on in Ukraine, and it probably is both giving the Taiwanese ideas as well as infusing the Chinese with more than a few doubts how successful they would be invading. In particular the Chinese cannot be happy how effective Western weapons have been shown to be against Russian-made ones.

China's undoubtedly better than Russia - they actually have a professional NCO corps, unlike Russia, and the bulk of their troops are professional soldiers and not conscripts. Their training is better, their technology is better.

There's a lot of intense scrutiny, though, on how entrenched various silos within the Chinese military are - Xi has hand-selected a lot of his officers, focusing on perceived loyalty and political orthodoxy over ability - and they tend to be much older; the younger generation that's familiar with modern tactics and modern weapons and modern military theory is still well in the wings and has had to wait their turn. Military leaders are also highly compartmentalized...seamen only train with seamen, infantry with infantry, air force only with air force, etc...which means that there's more than a few questions about how integrated the various branches are in terms of combined-arms attacks. Can they talk, coordinate, and support one another? The Russians certainly couldn't. And will they have the same logistics issues that have so plagued the Russians?

Also, for good or for ill, the US military fights a lot, all over the globe. The Chinese haven't fought a war since 1979. They have absolutely no one with actual combat experience - and very few of their combat systems or weapons have any real-world combat experience either. Our military is replete with guys who have a half-dozen tours under their belts. That could be enormous.

Also, authoritarian regimes are always really, really good at projecting strength, certainty, glowering macho aggression. The reality is they're often hidebound, bent, and rotted out from within by corruption that seldom shows until the rubber actually hits the road.

flag link

military_tech

thumb_down

thumb_up

Well, it looks like War is now inevitable.