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Orange Blooded [2086]
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So, about the economy during Biden...
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Mar 2, 2024, 10:46 AM
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It's been very good. The macro-numbers across the board are strong. Don't let the Red Hats fool you. This has been a very strong recovery from the pandemic. Biden does not deserve the blame for the inflation we saw earlier in his term (which has greatly dissipated, BTW), and he DOES deserve credit for alot of the good things going on now. If this election were about the economy, he would win in a landslide.
1) Our GDP growth is very strong, and stronger than the rest of the world. This is due to our expansionary stimulus coming out of the pandemic, as well as continued investment in infrastructure and other things. Under Biden, we're leading the world.
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/us-economy-2024-gdp-g7-nations
2) Our job growth has been twice as strong under Biden as under Trump even when just looking at Trump's pre-pandemic jobs. Under Biden, our job growth has been driven by his stimulative policies.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-surges-january-wages-rise-2024-02-02/
3) Wage growth has outpaced inflation, especially for the working class. We're actually seeing wage compression for the first time in decades. And Biden's policies are helping this trend, which helps the working class.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-tight-labor-market-result-of-worker-friendly-policies-by-arindrajit-dube-2024-02?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=organic-social&utm_campaign=page-posts-january24&utm_post-type=link&utm_format=16:9&utm_creative=link-image&utm_post-date=2024-02-08
4) The % of prime-age people employed is the highest it's been in 2 decades. Americans are back at work with a vengeance post-pandemic.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060
5) Our uninsured rate since Biden took over is the lowest it has ever been.
https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/e06a66dfc6f62afc8bb809038dfaebe4/Uninsured-Record-Low-Q12023.pdf
6) We are now energy independent. We're a net exporter of oil & gas. We're producing more gas than any country has ever produced. If Biden has a war on oil, then he's losing it badly. And we all know he doesn't have any such war.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/business/us-production-oil-reserves-crude/index.html
7) We've recently had an explosion in manufacturing investment, as a direct result of the Infrastructure Bill and the IRA Bill.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/C307RX1Q020SBEA
8) Headline unemployment is very low at 3.7%. Also, black unemployment is the lowest it's ever been.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000006
9) Inflation is back down close to the Fed's target.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/business/inflation-federal-reserve-economy.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Z00.kaJ_.TkeWZ1AwvgRH&smid=url-share
10) The inflation that you saw in 2022 and 2023 was mostly due to post-pandemic supply-chain bottlenecks which drove up prices. And we saw inflation all around the world, not just in the US. Furthermore, inflation is now back down near the Fed's target with no recession. The reason this occurred is that the supply-chain bottlenecks cleared up.
https://extension.purdue.edu/news/2023/08/supply-chain-pressure-is-easing-and-so-is-funding.html
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All-In [30874]
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My wallet won't get fatter until we can ship to Russia again
Mar 2, 2024, 8:32 PM
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There's a lot of blame to spread for that, but I have a feeling Trump will get those lanes open within 6 months of taking office.
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Recruit [75]
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Re: My wallet won't get fatter until we can ship to Russia again
Mar 2, 2024, 11:56 PM
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As well as the Asian market for hardwood lumber. Look at the mill closures in the last three years.
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Hall of Famer [24815]
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The "mill closures" were by our Marxist Canadians to the north by oligopoly.***
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Mar 3, 2024, 3:18 PM
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All-TigerNet [13160]
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So, Biden gets credit for everything except the crippling inflation?
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Mar 2, 2024, 8:36 PM
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Lol
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Orange Blooded [4021]
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Re: So, Biden gets credit for everything except the crippling inflation?
Mar 2, 2024, 8:40 PM
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What did Biden do to create the global inflation? You don't know, do you? 😆
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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Right....
Mar 2, 2024, 9:07 PM
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As mighty as the US economy is, we're not big enough to cause worldwide inflation. It obviously happened because of the pandemic, and would have occurred under any president's watch. The fact that inflation came back down without job losses is proof that this was a supply-chain episode of inflation, not a demand-driven episode.
Of course, the Red Hats won't admit it, because of biden being a marxist terrorist with dementia or something.
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All-TigerNet [13160]
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Head Coach [788]
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Re: Expand you mind and drop your DNC newsletter
Mar 5, 2024, 10:06 PM
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JT Young illustrates a fundamental misunderstanding of economics in this article.
He’s a GOP hack the usually writers for the Federalist.
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110%er [7159]
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Re: So, Biden gets credit for everything except the crippling inflation?
Mar 4, 2024, 7:38 PM
[ in reply to Re: So, Biden gets credit for everything except the crippling inflation? ] |
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Simple.
Our GDP growth rate was noticeably lower than the Treasury’s increase in money supply during Biden’s first 3 years in office.
There is no other possible outcome from this than inflation.
Hard stop.
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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The rest of the world had inflation....
Mar 5, 2024, 8:38 PM
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and we came out of the inflation without job losses. That only happens due to a supply-shock episode, which makes sense, when you factor what occurred with shipping & supply chains during the pandemic.
The narrative that this was Biden-driven is nonsense.
Hard stop.
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Head Coach [788]
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Re: The rest of the world had inflation....
Mar 5, 2024, 10:08 PM
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More than two variables whirling through an economy ……… non stop.
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CU Guru [1580]
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Commissioner [981]
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All-In [26515]
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He doesn't know what day it is .***
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Mar 2, 2024, 8:38 PM
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Commissioner [981]
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but he simultaneously has a diabolical plan to ruin the country
Mar 5, 2024, 8:53 PM
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amirite?
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All-TigerNet [11004]
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Re: So, about the economy during Biden...
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Mar 2, 2024, 8:55 PM
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Thats not what my spreadsheets tracking all my expenses says. I am spending more this year than last year for the same purchases. Let's look at a couple of your points.
3) increased wages - true but by increasing wages the manufacturer or business has to pass on the charge of their widget or service to the consumer. The secondary impact is increased taxes paid by the employee which in turn takes away a considerable percentage of their increase. If they're lucky enough to have insurance (your # 5), those rates have gone up because of the increase in wages at the insurance companies and more lawsuits taking away most of the rest of their pay increase. So what did they gain, nothing. The big winner is the Government from the increased taxes.
7) as you stated the explosion in manufacturing was from the infrastructure bill. That is from government spending not the manufactures investing revenue. Why wouldn't they take the money if it's being thrown at them. Just like the banks, the government is propping up manufactures. You better save every penny you can because once all the funding for these programs end, the inflation will go through the roof. Then the tax rates will go up and you'll lose even more money.
Yep, everything is good. No problems that I can see.
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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Two things...
Mar 3, 2024, 10:08 AM
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Nice try, but swing and a miss on both points:
3) The real wage gains we're seeing in the middle & working class is something that Trump fans would've touted back in 2018 and 2019. The majority of Americans are seeing gains, and inflation is actually subsiding. So, your explanation doesn't hold water.
7) I mentioned infrastructure and the IRA bill, which had billions in tax credits for renewable energy investment. Trump's tax cut bill and trade policies were supposed to create the same explosion of manufacturing investment, but did not. Biden's policies in this arena are much more effective. He's targeting the Chip industry and renewable energy as well.
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CU Guru [1377]
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Re: Two things...
Mar 5, 2024, 1:46 PM
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Dude interest rates have tripled since Trump left office and home prices have doubled. Just stop. If Trump was in office right now you would be crucifying him for the economy. Not to mention gas and groceries.
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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No I wouldn't....
Mar 5, 2024, 8:51 PM
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I admitted that the economy was good back in 2019. But it wasn't because of Trump's policies. He inherited good trends from Obama, and those trends largely continued.
Biden did not inherit good trends. He inherited a country that had fallen apart during 2020, from the pandemic and from some of Trump's actions, too. And now, Biden is presiding over a jobs boom, and all the major drivers are looking good. His policies have made a big difference.
I know it's hard for you to admit it. We can't have this happening under a Bolshevik with Dementia. But it's true. The data shows that the economy is strong. And the reasons for it are largely from Biden policies - not entirely from Biden, but a big boost from Biden.
If Trump were presiding over this current economy, you would be touting how good things are, and you'd be right. Of course, I know you won't at this point, because you hate Biden.
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110%er [7159]
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Re: Two things... fascinating
Mar 5, 2024, 1:46 PM
[ in reply to Two things... ] |
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Just think, the majority of Americans who have witnessed the decline in their own standard of living (with inflation being a huge component) are too dumb to realize that their quality of life has actually improved.
Yeah boy, as Rachel and Joe & Mika and the Daily Kos report, the OBiden Handlers Admin has done great work on the economy, but the messaging with regard to the economy isn’t good enough.
That’s it, that’s the ticket.
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Commissioner [981]
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Re: Two things... fascinating
Mar 5, 2024, 7:25 PM
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Tug those bootstraps, the government can’t help you
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Orange Blooded [4793]
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Re: So, about the economy during Biden...
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Mar 2, 2024, 9:36 PM
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It's funny watching all the leftist kooks, who swore that the either the economy sucked for Trumps presidency or that it didn't suck but that Obama should get credit for it all now try to gaslight us into believing Bidens economy is somehow thriving. Propagandists gonna propaganda. Would expect no less from the men can have kids crowd.
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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Great response....
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Mar 3, 2024, 8:52 AM
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Typical Red-Hatter. Doesn't respond to the substance of anything posted, just insults people that don't agree with him.
Trump inherited an economy that had already grown its way out of the 2007-2009 recession, and the fundamentals were good, even if not great.
Biden inherited a pandemic.
I don't expect you to even try to understand the difference.
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All-TigerNet [11004]
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Doing Well
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Mar 4, 2024, 4:58 PM
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Key Indicator Signals ‘Recession Ahead’ – Fed Faces Pressure to Cut Rates
The mainstream financial media is reporting that inflation is coming down.
It’s not coming down to the Federal Reserve’s supposed 2% target – let alone low enough to cease being a persistent problem for millions of families. Nor is it even clear that the rate of price level increases is on a path lower in 2024.
According to William J. Luther of the American Institute for Economic Research:
Inflation picked up in January, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, grew at a continuously compounding annual rate of 4.1 percent in the first month of the year.
The PCEPI has grown at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent over the last three months and 2.5 percent over the last six months. Prices today are 8.4 percentage points higher than they would have been had they grown at an annualized rate of 2.0 percent since January 2020.
Some categories of consumer prices are up much more than the overall official reading (which has been engineered by federal bureaucrats to understate food, shelter, healthcare and other expenses).
For example, food stamp costs for family meals have jumped more than 30% over the past three years. Automobile insurance rates are up 26%. And rising housing costs continue to outpace income growth.
To the extent that consumer price increases do ease at all this year, it will be because the economy is slowing.
The latest manufacturing data releases suggest the industrial sector is seeing softening demand. States are starting to report rising levels of job losses. And consumers are growing more negative toward the economy.
The Conference Board reported last week that consumer confidence fell in February for the first time in three months. Americans’ expectations for income and business conditions saw a significant decline, falling below a threshold that “often signals recession ahead,” according to the Conference Board.
Contrary to how ordinary Americans are feeling about the economy, the Biden administration is trying to sell them the narrative that it’s gotten far better since he assumed office.
But judging by Joe Biden’s historically low approval rating, that narrative isn’t resonating with many voters.
The upshot is that pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates will likely grow between now and November.
When central bankers finally do relent and begin easing, the U.S. dollar can be expected to weaken in the currency market.
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110%er [7159]
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Unfortunately, this is founded in a balloon of T-bill & T-bond IOUs
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Mar 4, 2024, 8:19 PM
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The central bank (Federal Reserve) has, since the start of the Biden administration, sent money to the US Treasury (with money from the Treasury then going into the economy) that the Federal Reserve doesn’t even have. The Federal Reserve has, in effect, issued ‘IOU’s’ to the Treasury.
(*). Note that not all of the Federal Reserve money gets sent to the Treasury. The Federal Reserve must have funds (not IOU’s, but actual money) to pay out when T-bills and T-bonds reach maturity; at that time those T-bills and T-bonds are redeemed for ‘real money’ (again, not some IOU) to those who had purchased those T-bonds and T-bills in the first place.
Investors in federal securities will always get first shot at the real money. Domestic ‘retail’ businesses and consumers of their own money, on the other hand, occasionally get to see the ‘balloon,’ but they seldom recognize what they see. Here is how to identify the ‘balloon’ when it makes its appearance: Go to your bank, and request an immediate cash withdrawl of $10,000 from an account in which you’d stashed ~ $30,000. The bank will most likely inform you that the full cash amount of $10,000 cannot be withdrawn; some far smaller amount will be made available to you. Your bank is buying time to get the ‘real cash’ to satisfy your withdrawl request. Your bank has the actual cash on hand, but they need to juggle their expected cash needs from their other customers. After enough juggling has been done, either the bank will provide you with the remainder of your original $10k request at one time, or maybe it will be in two or three additional increments.
As for the Federal Reserve predicting that interest rates will fall (via several incremental rate declines throughout the year), the only way that the Fed can accommodate the rate cut is if the ‘balloon of IOU’s’ gets inflated further. This is very dangerous; international investors recognize that T-bills and T-bonds are not firmly founded on real money, but rather partially founded on air.
Why does this matter? Because the interest rates at which the Federal Reserve must use to successfully sell new T-bills and T-bonds will be higher than expected because of an increased risk component associated with these federal securities. Higher risk = higher interest rates in order to attract the bond market to decide to purchase our new issues of federal securities.
(*). Already, we have seen that the Federal Reserve has postponed their previous indications of a rate cut in Q1-2024. To keep the US economy from becoming skeptical, the Federal Reserve has chosen the ‘let the borrowers of money down easily’ tact of indicating that the previously predicted interest rates will still (likely) take place, but at a later date. Did you notice how the stock and bond markets sank on the day that J.Powell made that announcement?
(*). The Federal Reserve cannot sustainably decrease domestic interest rates while simultaneously needing to pay higher interest rates to purchasers of federal securities. A perpetual increase in the size of the ‘IOU balloon’ is simply unsustainable. When the IOU balloon can no longer be inflated … or worse, must start to be deflated … there will follow a massive recession (or maybe a true depression).
(*). The Biden Administration, with as much cooperation from the Federal Reserve that it can provide without falling off the high wire, hopes to get through the 2024 election before the deep recession / true depression starts. After the election, the Biden Admin (more likely, the Michelle Obama administration) can do what it needs to do to grind through the recession / depression.
(*). This fate will come regardless of whether or not Trump is allowed to win. Whoever gets into the WH starting Jan. 2025 will have one heck of a mess on his / her hands.
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Orange Blooded [4021]
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Re: Unfortunately, this is founded in a balloon of T-bill & T-bond IOUs
Mar 4, 2024, 8:34 PM
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Just post the link next time. No one is going to read this. I don't think you read it either. 😆
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110%er [7159]
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Re: Unfortunately, this is founded in a balloon of T-bill & T-bond IOUs
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Mar 4, 2024, 8:56 PM
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I didn’t link it. I didn’t (just now) read it, either.
If you’ve got any money in investments other than T-notes, T-bills, or CD’s of less than $250K, then you ought to read it.
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CU Guru [1073]
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Re: Unfortunately, this is founded in a balloon of T-bill & T-bond IOUs
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Mar 4, 2024, 10:28 PM
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I didn’t link it. I didn’t (just now) read it, either.
If you’ve got any money in investments other than T-notes, T-bills, or CD’s of less than $250K, then you ought to read it.
Ignore him, he is always rude
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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All-TigerNet [11004]
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Re: Unfortunately, this is founded in a balloon of T-bill & T-bond IOUs
Mar 5, 2024, 1:27 PM
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I think the link says the same thing. You know you can find a link to say anything you want. Just like the internet is 100% true. 🫏
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110%er [7159]
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Re: Unfortunately, this is founded in a balloon of T-bill & T-bond IOUs
Mar 5, 2024, 1:52 PM
[ in reply to Re: Unfortunately, this is founded in a balloon of T-bill & T-bond IOUs ] |
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I don’t have a link. I just happen to know this stuff from reading about and thinking about over within the past few months.
You can probably get a primer on the relationship about how the Federal Reserve interacts with the Treasury by hitting up your favorite internet search engine. That’ll get you started.
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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I very seriously doubt we're going to have a run-on-the-bank...
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Mar 5, 2024, 7:21 PM
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or Wile E Coyota moment with these T-Bills. I think if there were some horrible day of reckoning looming, markets would be flipped out.
I could be wrong. THere's always a chance at a recession. But right now, the fundamentals of the economy look very good in all aspects, far as I can tell.
And the Fed is going to lower rates this year, which makes sense, as inflation is already at or near their target.
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Lot o points [155983]
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This is getting weird man.
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Mar 4, 2024, 5:08 PM
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I know I’ve seen you around the main board over the years, usually around GT games, but not even 1500 posts in 24 years and suddenly you’re posting pro-Biden stuff non-stop on P&R like it’s your job. I’m starting to suspect it might be your job.
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Hall of Famer [24815]
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He's not alone... Some are just less seasoned and more obvious. ;~)***
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Mar 4, 2024, 5:55 PM
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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Lot o points [155983]
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please don't take it as me trying to tell you what to do.
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Mar 4, 2024, 6:49 PM
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you wanna be the Biden version of Miura, go for it. I was just questioning the purity of motivation. You say you just happened upon here, I believe you.
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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I'm just posting my views....
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Mar 4, 2024, 7:22 PM
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Nothing more than that.
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Orange Blooded [4021]
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Re: I'm just posting my views....
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Mar 4, 2024, 8:04 PM
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They get triggered AF when you do that. Keep posting.
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Hall of Famer [24815]
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Wait to you find out what "triggered" really means...***
Mar 4, 2024, 9:55 PM
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Orange Blooded [4021]
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Re: Wait to you find out what "triggered" really means...***
Mar 4, 2024, 10:26 PM
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Hall of Famer [24815]
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Good selfie. I hope THEY were gentle... or not.***
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Mar 4, 2024, 10:57 PM
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110%er [7159]
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Re: I'm just posting my views.... this is a good thing
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Mar 5, 2024, 2:13 PM
[ in reply to I'm just posting my views.... ] |
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Also, IMO you are good for participating / sharing your perspectives on the political board.
The true purpose is to put forth and receive perspectives about matters of relevance in the political realm, and then see how the arguments vs counter-arguments stack up.
After all, no one should simply accept a point of view simply to be popular, or to be reflexively obstinate. The arguments bear the burden of convincing the listener / reader.
Of course, this only works if the arguments are sincere, as opposed to being a diversionary exercise in which the hidden agenda is to deflect attention away from the faults of a person’s preferred politician.
You are endeavoring to provide legitimate content as a contribution to the TNet political board. Please consider sticking around.
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Orange Blooded [2086]
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OK, I appreciate your comments.****
Mar 5, 2024, 7:04 PM
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All-TigerNet [10901]
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LOL!***
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Mar 4, 2024, 10:01 PM
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All-In [47768]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 30419
Joined: 11/15/99
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Head Coach [788]
TigerPulse: 88%
Posts: 973
Joined: 7/9/21
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Re: So, about the economy during Biden...
Mar 5, 2024, 2:23 PM
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MAGAts aren’t aware of this cuz they’re watching Fox and Newsmax and Q anon Facebook, but the economy is cooking. Not too hot not too cold.
Prices have not come down, and they’re not going to, they never do when inflation comes down. And inflation HAS come down.
Unemployment all time lows.
Biden is crushing it with announced manufacturing jobs. These are real jobs, high paying long-term jobs.
Note these manufacturers are building the facilities all over the southeast, except for Florida. With Ron DeSantis’ punitive actions against business, economic development folks are avoiding Florida.
As of now, whoever wins in November will inherit a strong economy with a solid foundation for growth.
You will not hear any of this from Fox News.
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