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Replies: 37
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Legend [16921]
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Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 1:18 PM
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likelihood of FSU winning that game, even with their “comeback”. The odds of winning were essentially unchanged after our last touchdown. Even when they cut the lead to 6 they had a 1% chance of winning.
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All-In [40936]
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So we only have 1% chance of losing the game?***
Oct 16, 2022, 1:41 PM
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Legend [16921]
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Re: So we only have 1% chance of losing the game?***
Oct 16, 2022, 3:14 PM
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Pretty much. It would have been a bigger all time meltdown than the Falcons / Patriots Super Bowl from
a probabilities standpoint.
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Orange Blooded [2987]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 1:42 PM
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And about the intent. The objective is to win the game. It really is that simple. Last night - mission accomplished.
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 1:44 PM
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Yeah, ESPN's probability indicator is a made up statistic.
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Freshman [0]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 1:56 PM
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Don't get me wrong, I think statistics have their place in cfb but I wonder what the odds of Clemson winning the 2017 national championship was with less than a minute left in the game
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 2:52 PM
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Much better than you probably thought.
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Legend [15749]
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That graph and $3 will get you a cup of coffee.
Oct 16, 2022, 2:00 PM
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That statistic means nothing. If they get that insides kick and March down the field it goes from 99% Clemson to 99% FSU immediately.
I’m not complaining about the game but that win probability chart is purely for fun.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: That graph and $3 will get you a cup of coffee.
Oct 16, 2022, 2:53 PM
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Someone doesn’t understand statistics but that’s okay.
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Orange Blooded [4365]
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Re: That graph and $3 will get you a cup of coffee.
Oct 16, 2022, 7:30 PM
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The percentage of people in America (and on Tigernet) who do not understand statistics is, well. . .
You do the math
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Orange Blooded [4820]
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I’ve been a falcons fans for 25 years, statistics don’t mean
Oct 16, 2022, 10:22 PM
[ in reply to Re: That graph and $3 will get you a cup of coffee. ] |
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A #### thing when it comes to a football game. It’s cute to look at what “typically happens”, but all too often the ball bounces a different way. It’s what makes football the best game of them all, it’s NEVER over until the clock is all zeroes.
Clemson went to clock management too early last night and it almost bit em. Fortunately it didn’t. Now u can say the statistics told you that in the 3rd quarter, but if that onside kick bounces in FSUs favor, all that mathematical speculation goes in the trash can.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: I’ve been a falcons fans for 25 years, statistics don’t mean
Oct 16, 2022, 10:28 PM
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Yes. It would have raised their odds of winning to about 20%. I love watching people argue with math.
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Orange Blooded [4036]
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Re: I’ve been a falcons fans for 25 years, statistics don’t mean
Oct 17, 2022, 1:33 PM
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This is why economists tend to suck at stock trading. Post hoc statistics don’t means squat until the modeled behavior is actualized. If they did, you would be a billionaire. Past results are not indicative of future performance.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: I’ve been a falcons fans for 25 years, statistics don’t mean
Oct 17, 2022, 2:25 PM
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A good economist will tell you that virtually all stock traders get below market returns (roughly 98% of active traders do not beat the S&P 500) and you should just get an index fund. They would also tell you that the likelihood of scoring a touchdown without timeouts in under two minutes is far easier to model than the stock market. Not sure why this OP triggered so many of you. My apologies.
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Oculus Spirit [77013]
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Legend [15749]
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Yes, I'm serious. Put it this way...
Oct 16, 2022, 11:30 PM
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When you go into the 4th with a 20 point lead, and the home team brings it down to six points with a 2:23, 60 yard drive and a 1:35 94 yard drive...and they are about to onside kick with over 2 minutes left, to take comfort in some computer model that says "Hey, don't worry, they have only a 1 percent chance of winning this game" is...to me...stupid. Honestly, who would watch sports like that? What does it even mean? IF they get the onside kick (which of course happens way more than 1% of the time), it would be unreasonable to NOT be worried that they'll be able to advance the ball. All indications were that they could based on the last two drives. Some statistician that takes into account spreads, down and distance and time of the game is hardly providing a complete picture. Viztiz wants to paint worried Clemson fans as idiots in that scenario but I would argue that a fan who is watching his D Line get gashed and his secondary look lost is more informed than a statistical model with only a few variable inputs.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Yes, I'm serious. Put it this way...
Oct 16, 2022, 11:46 PM
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I wasn’t watching the app in real time. I was watching the game. And I was not particularly worried. The point was that many (and you continue to) overestimated the odds of them pulling off the win. Those odds were easy to find. They’re right in the ESPN app. The odds of converting the kick was not the only variable remaining. I didn’t say they were idiots. Re read my op. I said they were “confused as to the likelihood”. There are more than “a few” variables in that modeling. Sports offer some of the most robust data for analytics.
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Legend [15749]
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You took solace in an obviously oversimplified
Oct 17, 2022, 12:23 AM
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probability model. And good for you. Even the article you posted in support of that thing listed just a few parameters (Vegas odds, down and distance, time in game). And that’s fine…it’ll give you a nice general idea of how things are going. But Clemson fans were watching a football game, where a home team had just gashed our defense on consecutive drives. Does ESPN model for that? Anyone who isn’t anxious during that onside kick attempt because of an ESPN statistical model doesn’t appreciate the nuance and humanity of sport, or is too invested in the accuracy of a limited mathematical model.
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CU Guru [1746]
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I wonder if the formula used takes into account
Oct 16, 2022, 4:54 PM
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The onside kick or only bases the number on the fact that we get the ball back in that scenario and not enough timeouts for them?
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Legend [16921]
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110%er [9656]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 6:49 PM
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So we don’t understand statistics and we’re seriously confused? Why play the game oh great foozeball professor? Why not just declare a winner based on your app and drink beer and chase the cheerleaders around? Seems pointless to allow players to get injured when the app can tell you the game in advance.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 7:39 PM
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Welp, I’m gonna lean to just being stupid not disingenuous if math scares you this bad.
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110%er [9656]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 7:45 PM
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So now I’m stupid? You’ve called me a dullard, stupid and many other demeaning things today. I don’t know you and I never want to. You’re a dooosh! You act like you have some superior intellect and what guys like you don’t understand about football, especially that played at the college level is that will and determination can flip your statistics on any given Saturday. That’s why we play the game
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 7:52 PM
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I can guarantee that Dabo was no way, shape, or form ok with Florida St. having the opportunity to gain possession of the ball with 2 minutes to go and a 6 point lead. I'm willing to bet every paycheck I make for the rest of my life on that one.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 9:32 PM
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Point to where I, or anyone, asserted that or what that has to do with my post. Your response is irrelevant to my post.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 9:29 PM
[ in reply to Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the ] |
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Will and determination is why the 1% still exists. I’m sorry you don’t understand statistics or probability. You’ve been attacking me so I’ve responded. You claim others were making things up and when I defended their assertions you went after me. I provided proof and you changed your parameters. You were wrong and you have continued to attack and be insulting so I’ve responded in kind. Own your mistake or deal with it.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 9:47 PM
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Man. I bet you're a HIT at parties.
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110%er [9656]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 10:10 PM
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They’ve long since quit inviting him
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110%er [9656]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 10:08 PM
[ in reply to Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the ] |
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You’re a statistics guy so I’ve got one for you. You’ve been on this board a full 8 years longer than me and you are 1300 pts behind me. You’ve gone around TD’ing my post and I know it’s you because I get along with people on here.
I don’t call people stupid, think I’m smarter than everyone nor an overall condescending ###! I’m not attacking you, or I wasn’t. You’re the first person I genuinely don’t like on here and that’s saying a lot. And I really don’t think you’re that smart either because if you were smart you would have sense enough to know when you stopped looking smart and began looking like a doooosh! Have a good life Viz Not
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 10:21 PM
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Dont sweat the tryhards.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 10:33 PM
[ in reply to Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the ] |
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Lol - you really are bad at math. I have less points than you because I’ve posted less than you. And since I’ve been here 8 years longer than you I’d suggest that means I have a much less inflated sense of my importance here. You picked a fight. You were wrong. You won’t concede and I won’t back down so now you’re uncomfortable. Since you seems to care about points, I have a higher points to posts ratio to you. Since you made it an issue I guess that means I’m the better TNet poster. That must really sting.
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CU Guru [1045]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 7:49 PM
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Maybe Wes should show this graph to Dabo during the staff meetings this week.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 10:38 PM
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Oh let's not. If whatever's afflicting viztiz spreads, our chances of a keeping a good, clean mathlete-free football program goes to what was it? 1%?
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Legend [16921]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 16, 2022, 10:50 PM
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Do you have any ideal the amount of analytics in sports these days. You would be so disappointed.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 17, 2022, 1:25 PM
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Thanks for pointing out the sun.
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110%er [7114]
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FSU onside-kicked to us…
Oct 16, 2022, 10:39 PM
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down by six with PLENTY of time to score with a short field. Onside kicks are a long shot, but if the ball takes a crazy bounce or if the receiving team bobbles it, anything can happen.
Saying FSU had no chance to win is incorrect. Our defense slacked off and Dabo as much as admitted it. He needs to fry Goodwin’s #### for that this week in practice to make danm sure those guys play all the way to the end. And we could’ve been more… well…. courageous, shall we say, with the play-calling when it was clear that our defense had checked out. If we hadn’t taken our foot off the gas we could have probably scored two more touchdowns on that gassed FSU defense.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: FSU onside-kicked to us…
Oct 16, 2022, 10:49 PM
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I said people were confused as to the likelihood, not that they had no chance. I also didn’t suggest Dabo should print that graph and give everyone the week off.
On another note, throwing out of our own end zone late in the game was pretty aggressive. On defense no one would be complaining if it weren’t for the face mask call. I guess you could criticize the coaches for not having players with more discipline in that situation - maybe? But it wasn’t a bad play call.
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CU Guru [1701]
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Re: Some of you seem seriously confused as to the
Oct 17, 2022, 12:27 AM
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I get what you are saying but still don’t wanna take the risk of FSU recovering an onside kick. Onside kicks are basically random, and you never know what could happen with one. Personally, I never felt like FSU was a threat, even when the lead was cut to 6. Still, I don’t like the idea of giving up two touchdowns like that towards the later part of the game.
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