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Replies: 21
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Orange Blooded [4596]
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NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 4:27 AM
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After 2/12, Clemson dropped from 29 to 30 without playing, since Texas Tech jumped from 38 to 26, pushing 26->27, 27->28, 28->29, and Clemson from 29->30.
But that was before the upsets last night (2/13). Will need to wait to see how those affect everything.
And obviously, each game going forward, like tonight's contest in Littlejohn against Miami are essentially "must-win" games.
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Orange Blooded [3561]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 5:01 AM
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I really don’t see many awful opponents left.
The only teams remaining for Clemson that are actually below Clemson in the ACC standings are Notre Dame and GT.
Notre Dame would obviously not be a good loss, but it wouldn’t be a loss to a 4-win Louisville team like last year.
This is likely why most experts have said we’re a lock for the tournament. We have one of the best resumes for sure, but if we had some 3 win teams left and lost to one, they’d be quick to pull us out I promise you.
That being said, Brad knows how to scheme a disaster. But I have faith in our veteran players.
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110%er [5513]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 7:00 AM
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I really don’t see many awful opponents left.
Half of our remaining games are Quad 3.
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110%er [5513]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 7:18 AM
[ in reply to Re: NET movement ] |
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The only teams remaining for Clemson that are actually below Clemson in the ACC standings are Notre Dame and GT.
And Miami
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Legend [16921]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 7:24 AM
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Side note, we are the only ACC team remaining to have only played 12 conference games (Miami trails by a half game due to losing 1 game more than us). When we opened the conference slate poorly several posters complained about how unfair our conference schedule was - which was obviously demonstrably false.
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Orange Blooded [2669]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 7:39 AM
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Our schedule is front loaded as i proved in the thread and excerpt below. You ran away from the conversation like you normally do when proved wrong.
"What are your power rankings then, since mine are so bad? Let's hear it.
Also, you are a huge proponent of the net ranking system, but also dont believe in home court advantage. Why do you think QUAD 1 away games are against teams with a NET rating if 1-75, while a quad 1 home game is against teams 1-30?
Lastly, our first 12 ACC games featured 6 quad 1 games, 3 quad 2 games, 2 quad 3 games, and 1 quad 4 game. Our last 8 games feature 1 quad 1 game, 2 quad 2 games, and 5 quad 3 games
It seems that you might be hung up on the word "frontloaded" meaning only the first ten games. This is flawed because having a front loaded schedule could still include games 11 and 12. Even so your argument still holds no water, troll.
First 10 games: 5 Q1, 2 Q2, 2 Q3, and 1 Q4
Last 10 games: 2 Q1, 3 Q2, 5 Q3
Hilarious that you constantly bash others basketball knowledge, yet you constantly get proved wrong.
I bet you are enjoying me ignoring you. You get to troll and make up bs to refute my comments, but i dont respond back proving you wrong. Your next comment should show your power rankings if you feel differently. If you dont want to have a serious conversation, then you will go back to being ignored."
https://www.tigernet.com/clemson-forum/thread/very-favorable-remaining-schedule-2331769
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Legend [16921]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 8:25 AM
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You’re such a disingenuous troll. I’m not an advocate - your complaints are just unfounded. There is a difference. We’re 30th in the NET. It’s a perfectly fair ranking and has us included in every bracket on bracket matrix. But we’ve been left out at 35. What you’re doing is deliberately sowing discontent so if things fall apart it’s the systems fault. You’re “proof” is your own completely subjective list - how do you argue with that? It’s idiotic. You’re quad argument is at least data driven but it’s incomplete and will, in all likelihood, come down to a mix of who we played away versus home in which half of the schedule. Which you also complained about despite us being the ONLY team in the entire ACC to have only played 12 games as of today. Even when we play our 13th tonight we’ll lag more than half the league. You’re making crap up.
And no, you do not get to indulge your want to redefine words with me. “Front-loaded: to assign costs or benefits to the early stages of (such as a contract, project, or time period)“. You specifically referenced our ACC schedule. You do not get to bleed into the back half of that schedule and claim it could still be “front loaded”. Evenly dividing the schedule in half was giving you a generous benefit of the doubt.
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Orange Blooded [2669]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 9:24 AM
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1. I provided my power eankings, as well as quad data. You are the one not listening, and not looking at with an open mind. If you disagree with my power rankings, then provide your list. You wont do that, because it will prove you wrong.
2. Our schedule was absolutely front loaded no matter which way you look at it. Our first 4 games of the acc schedule were all quad 1 (more than the entire last 10 games). 5 of our first 10 games were quad 1 games. We only have 2 in the back half of our schedule. We played 1 quad 3 and 1 quad 4 in the front half of our schedule. We play 5 quad 3's in the back half of our schedule.
3. It's weird that you call yourself a basketball fan, yet cant seem to grasp home court advantage.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: NET movement
Feb 14, 2024, 10:53 AM
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Statistically home court advantage is less than 4 points (this has been extensively studied and 90% of HCA resides between 2.5-4.5. points. That’s meaningful but nearly as punitive as you’ve pretended. And you’re completely talking outside both sides of your mouth focusing on quads to make your argument. You bash it over and over then rely on it to make your point? If you wanted to make a tangible complaint about NET it would be counting net rankings as low as 75 as Quad 1 when they’re on the road. If quad 1 is attempting to adjust for HCA it’s off by about 25 places. This is quantifiable not just “my power rankings bro”. FYI - Based on today’s betting line and KenPom numbers Clemson is getting no home field advantage in the spread and it is actually losing 2.5 points in one book. Btw - Clemson at -3 on FanDuel is a strong buy - you should put your money where your mouth is. You can thank me later.
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Orange Blooded [2669]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 11:41 AM
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Lol. I used my power rankings. You didnt like that (while also not providing your own) , so i put in terms of NET, which you seem to be a large proponent of. You seem to be the one talking out of both sides of your mouth. You are a huge proponent of NET, yet you also dont factor in home court advantage and you are also disregarding that per net rankings, our schedule is front loaded. ARE YOU LITERALLY ARGUING WITH MATH???
Let's see your power rankings!!
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Legend [16921]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 7:20 AM
[ in reply to Re: NET movement ] |
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The idea that we are “a lock” is that we aren’t going to lose enough of the remaining games to matter. But they’re also predicting we go 7-1 from here on most sites. The projection is that we will finish well above .500 and in 4th place in conference standings. But those same projections would have been 2-2 yesterday. And that’s straight up - not against the spread. That’s not great. We’re at a point where most conference games have potential ramification for us. We have to get out of the bottom half of the conference. Despite what you hear, we aren’t going to the tourney as a .500 conference record 7 seed from the ACC.
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Team Captain [460]
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Re: NET movement
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Feb 14, 2024, 7:52 AM
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Dude. Yes we are
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Legend [16921]
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Re: NET movement
Feb 14, 2024, 8:12 AM
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Dude! You have no idea what you’re talking about.
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All-TigerNet [14478]
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Re: NET movement
1
Feb 14, 2024, 7:57 AM
[ in reply to Re: NET movement ] |
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User Logo
viztiz®
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Re: NET movement 1
Feb 14, 2024, 7:20 AM [ in reply to Re: NET movement ]
Reply
The idea that we are “a lock” is that we aren’t going to lose enough of the remaining games to matter. But they’re also predicting we go 7-1 from here on most sites. The projection is that we will finish well above .500 and in 4th place in conference standings. But those same projections would have been 2-2 yesterday. And that’s straight up - not against the spread. That’s not great. We’re at a point where most conference games have potential ramification for us. We have to get out of the bottom half of the conference. Despite what you hear, we aren’t going to the tourney as a .500 conference record 7 seed from the ACC.
WHAT IS REALLY HILARIOUS IS YOU SAY "WE" WHEN TALKING ABOUT CLEMSON. A KNEESLAPPER INDEED. STILL WAITING ON REPORT OF THE LAST TIME YOU GRACED THE DOORS OF LITTLEJOHN.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: NET movement
2
Feb 14, 2024, 8:13 AM
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Has it ever occurred to you NOT to be the dumbest guy in the room? Endor was trying to help you out.
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Team Captain [460]
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Re: NET movement
1
Feb 14, 2024, 7:51 AM
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These aren't must win games. We are in the tournament if we split games here on out
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Legend [16921]
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Re: NET movement
Feb 14, 2024, 8:11 AM
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I hope you’re enjoying your first season watching college basketball
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Recruit [82]
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Re: NET movement
Feb 14, 2024, 9:51 AM
[ in reply to Re: NET movement ] |
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While projections suggest that going 4-4 in the last 8 games has us at a 98% chance of making the tournament, they also assume that Clemson is favored to win in 7 of the 8 remaining games with win probabilities greater than 70% in 7 of 8 games (and greater than 80% in 5 games). Based on the eye test, losing 4 games during that stretch to at least 3 teams with less than a 30% of winning does not look great on any resume, let alone Clemson's. Furthermore, if teams below us currently in the tournament projections perform well, then that 98% chance will diminish to a degree.
While I agree that 98% indicates that we are fairly locked into the tournament, I would personally like to see us go no worse than 6-2 to cement locking in our tournament selection at 100%. Plus, a 6-2 record would give us greater confidence going into the ACC and NCAA tournaments.
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Legend [16921]
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Re: NET movement
1
Feb 14, 2024, 11:03 AM
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Where do you see that kind of specific split (4-4 98%). I know Team Rankings and Warren Nolan does projections but I haven’t seen anything that specific. The problem I see, going by Team Rankings, is that that 98% makes no sense if you play it out. They have us finishing 5th. If you flip the games with Syracuse, Florida State, and Pitt and leave everything else alone across the league we end up in a tie for 8th. I’ve got a bridge to sell to anyone that thinks we get in the tourney in 8th place.
Message was edited by: viztiz®
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Recruit [82]
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Re: NET movement
Feb 14, 2024, 11:55 AM
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Oh I’m not disagreeing with you. I would also find it difficult to see a team finish 8th in the conference and get into the NCAA tourney if multiple teams ahead of them in their conference also did not get in.
The 98% comes from TeamRankings Bracketology section for Clemson. There’s too many variables for this to remain at 98% if we go 4-4, as this is like trying to predict the weather four weeks ahead. We predict it’ll be warm but a lot could change.
Right now we look good, but there’s still work to be done. That’s why I’d love at least a 6-2 record. Let’s show we belong.
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CU Guru [1893]
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Re: NET movement
Feb 14, 2024, 10:00 AM
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The only games left that are close to sure wins are at ND and Syracuse at home, and neither are locks, especially after the Orange's win over UNC last night. Pitt is on fire. FSU and NC St. will be looking for revenge. At Wake is probably a Loss. Clemson had better win tonight if the Tigers want to finish 5-3 with a winning ACC record.
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Orange Blooded [3406]
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Ultimately, in the immortal words of Al Davis, "just win baby"
Feb 14, 2024, 11:50 AM
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Going 10-1 against a solid non-conference slate has helped, along w/ avoiding truly ugly losses in terms of opponent quality.
That said, despite statements to contrary about deemphasis on conference records by the committee, we'd all feel alot better if we'd get as close to winning out & finishing in the Top 4-6 of ACC standings. Best place for this team to going into the ACC tournament is to be squarely in w/ solid metrics & 20+ wins & nowhere near the borders of the bubble. Hopefully our coaches & players can take advantage of what should be a favorable closing stretch, take it 1 game @ a time, & not leave any doubt.
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