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Scout Team [180]
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Leaving early for the NFL; Tee Higgins example...
Jan 3, 2024, 9:47 PM
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In the Will Shipley announcement thread someone made a comment that "Ya'll said T. Higgins wasn't ready and he's completely balling out in the NFL".
I thought that was interesting because it makes you wonder what constitutes success? Is it just playing well on Sundays or does the long-term monetary impact matter? Financially speaking Tee Higgins probably did make a mistake leaving early. There was never any question of whether or not he could play at a NFL level, the question is always about making the most of a career. Tee has the talent to have been a top 10 draft pick but fell to the top of the second round. The rookie wage scale has a big drop off after the top few picks and then the drop to the second round is steep as well.
Tee is still playing out his rookie deal which lists his average salary as $2,171,696 (contract numbers taken from "https://www.spotrac.com/"). In comparison WR Henry Ruggs, the 12th pick of that same 2020 draft who is currently out of football, was set to make an average of $4,167,907 per year over his rookie deal. Tee has spent his entire career thus far being paid about half of what he should've based on his talent. Rookie deals are generally 4 years with an option for a 5th year yet most NFL careers last less than 3 years.
Simply getting drafted isn't nearly as important as where you get drafted. You can out-earn a bad draft position but most don't last long enough to do it. It makes sense to leave early if your stock is high but if your stock isn't high it looks like you need to keep playing to set yourself up best for the draft.
Another example is Isaiah Simmons who also left early in 2020 as a junior after a dominating year and winning the Butkus award. Simmons was the 9th pick of the 2020 draft and, despite having a much less impressive career thus far than Tee, he's still averaging $5,166,014 per year. Simmon's contract was for over $20 million fully guaranteed. Higgins' was for around $8 million without guarantees. In light of those numbers did Tee make a mistake entering the draft early or has his on field success justified the decision?
It's an interesting topic for discussion and since we seem to have a couple of months to kill until the Spring Game I'm going to throw this question out there. Is it better to stay stay to enhance your draft position or is just making it to the NFL as soon as possible the better choice?
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All-Conference [441]
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Re: Leaving early for the NFL; Tee Higgins example...
Jan 3, 2024, 9:55 PM
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Interesting point. I agree with your stance on leaving if your draft position guarantees its monetarily fruitful. However, Shipley will be a 4th year running back if he returns. Thats a lot of tread off the tires for a RB. Additionally, if we're being honest Shipleys stock probably isnt going much higher. Im not Mel Kiper, but Shipley lacks elite speed. That isnt gonna change by staying another year. For him, i think he's probably maxed out his draft stock. The money question is whether he will make more with NIL or the NFL.
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110%er [6692]
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Re: Leaving early for the NFL; Tee Higgins example...
Jan 3, 2024, 10:01 PM
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You make some decent points but really you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Higgins made a good decision for him and he’s made a lot of money. He’s set to sign his second contract which is where the real money is.
You’re also assuming that coming back for another year would 100% mean increased draft positioning.
Also, rookie contracts aren’t generally guaranteed for 4 years, that’s only the first round. Additionally, rookie contracts are for 4 years. Only first rounders gave the fifth year options.
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Walk-On [120]
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Re: Leaving early for the NFL; Tee Higgins example...
Jan 3, 2024, 10:18 PM
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Yeah I’m not buying this example, Tee definitely made the right choice, he was a lock for at least a 2nd round pick..could another year maybe have elevated him to a first? Possibly? But it also presented a huge risk of an injury derailing of those plans.
This is the right decision for Ship, any round that he is picked is a good one for him. If he came back there is a chance he would get dropped on the depth chart and also a definite non-zero chance of another bad injury, like in his freshman year.
If people are expecting him to be the next Mcaffery they are crazy but let’s say he becomes the next Danny Woodhead, which is possible, that would be a great career by NFL RB standards.
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CU Guru [1858]
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Re: Leaving early for the NFL; Tee Higgins example...
Jan 3, 2024, 10:13 PM
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Next season he’ll make $20M+ per season once he inks his new free agent WR1 contract. All rookie contracts are depressed in value compared to vets under the 2011 collective bargaining agreement. The real payday for every rookie is after yr 3 or 4 IF you’ve proven it on the field. He has and will get paid. As for Ruggs, he is not collecting a paycheck currently as a member of the Nevada Department of Corrections.
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Orange Blooded [2448]
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Re: Leaving early for the NFL; Tee Higgins example...
Jan 3, 2024, 10:24 PM
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Another consideration that must be taken is how high is the guy within his position? Tee was the 7th receiver drafted with some really good ones in front of him (Jefferson, Aiyuk, Lamb, and Jeudy looked like a sure thing but hasn't had a great NFL career). Simmons was the first LB taken.
I don't mean that to sound like Shipley will go first round if not many RBs declare...he will probably be the tenth back taken.
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Orange Blooded [4790]
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Re: Leaving early for the NFL; Tee Higgins example...
Jan 3, 2024, 10:29 PM
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There's an idiot in every village but I seem to remember most understanding Higgins going pro. I mean he had a first round projection and just barely slid into the second. Hard to say a guy getting drafted that high shouldn't have left and he's had a very good career thus far which would indicate he was actually underdrafted. Shipleys situation isn't really analogous to Higgins although I do agree that he probably can't improve his draft stock by staying and should have his decision to move on respected by the fans.
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