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Replies: 36
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Recruit [99]
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Can someone explain how or why an
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:06 PM
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11 seed team is favored over a 6 seed team? I just saw that we're a 1.5 pt underdog. That's ridiculous. Common opponent was Boise St in which they split, winning by 10 and losing by 8. Clemson on the other hand beat Boise by 17.
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CU Medallion [61846]
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Probably takes into consideration previous post-season play as a #1 seed
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:08 PM
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at home playing as a favorite over a #8 seed in an insignificant tournament. And, recent performance in a conference tournament.
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110%er [6940]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
5
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:10 PM
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Have you seen us play lately?
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Editor [∞]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 18, 2024, 3:14 PM
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I'm sure there's a metrics element to it. NM is 11 spots higher on KenPom and 13 with the NET. Doesn't appear that the NCAA selection committee bought into some of the Mountain West metrics though, with all of the Lobos' big wins coming just in conference play.
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Legend [15749]
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That seems like over-thinking. I'm no gambler, but as I understand it, betting
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:23 PM
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lines are all about evening out the money. So I'm not sure they care that much about KenPom. I feel like it's as some have already said...betters have seen us play poorly in the tournaments (ACC, NCAA, NIT) and aren't putting a lot of money on us. The last couple games we haven't looked so hot.
But again, I just go by what I've read (and what makes sense to me as the motivation for setting a betting line). I could certainly be wrong.
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110%er [5512]
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Re: That seems like over-thinking. I'm no gambler, but as I understand it, betting
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:32 PM
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Vegas absolutely uses advanced metrics in coming up with betting lines. The initial line is based on math. The adjustments afterward are based on actual bets (and any significant changes, like an injury to a key player).
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Editor [∞]
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Re: That seems like over-thinking. I'm no gambler, but as I understand it, betting
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:38 PM
[ in reply to That seems like over-thinking. I'm no gambler, but as I understand it, betting ] |
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I wouldn't be shocked if some historical element plays into some game lines, but I think there is a certain power rating tied to metrics such as KenPom that determines a good number of them. I don't think it's a coincidence that the higher-rated KenPom team is favored in all but one game this week (Nevada -1, No. 36; Dayton No. 32) and they go in a certain proportion it seems to the disparity.
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Legend [16920]
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Re: That seems like over-thinking. I'm no gambler, but as I understand it, betting
Mar 18, 2024, 5:09 PM
[ in reply to That seems like over-thinking. I'm no gambler, but as I understand it, betting ] |
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Vegas is attempting to pick the line correctly and adjusts when the public disagrees significantly. And gamblers heavily use metrics like KenPom which means Vegas is acutely aware of those metrics.
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Legend [16920]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
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Mar 18, 2024, 5:08 PM
[ in reply to Re: Can someone explain how or why an ] |
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They’re NET 22 to our NET 35. They’re one of the most under seeded teams and we’re one of the most. The 5,6,7 collectively win about 62% of the time and it’s in large part because the NCAA overseeds major conference teams in this range and places under seeded mid-majors in the 10,11,12 slots. It doesn’t really matter because it’s pretty much the right teams playing but on the wrong side of the bracket. And it makes the common upsets in the brackets more exciting when it’s the big school going down to the little one. If the mid major was the higher seed people would just shrug their shoulders. But Vegas and gamblers don’t care about NCAA seeding manipulation.
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110%er [6170]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 18, 2024, 7:06 PM
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Excellent analysis
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Oculus Spirit [80415]
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They've seen brownlee for the past 14 yrs at Clemson-enough said.***
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:15 PM
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All-In [31315]
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Re: They've seen brownlee for the past 14 yrs at Clemson-enough said.***
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Mar 18, 2024, 8:13 PM
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Yep, if you were betting man would you bet on a Brownell coached team? Does not look like the majority of those placing bets are.
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All-In [32656]
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Easy. They know who our head coach is.***
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:16 PM
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110%er [5972]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:17 PM
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Orange Blooded [3223]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:26 PM
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Well, Clemson has been on a skid of late and New Mexico hasn’t. New Mexico also has a higher NET and KenPom rating than Clemson. Also not Brownell is 3-6 in NCAAT history. One and done all but twice. He won one game once and two once to advance to sweet 16. Clemson is historically terrible in post season play under Brownell.
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CU Medallion [64593]
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Well...if I were to wager a guess...
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:29 PM
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I'd say it's because New Mexico is 4-0 in its last four games including winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament Championship while Clemson is 1-3 in its last four games including a loss to a 12-17 Notre Dame team and a humiliating blowout loss to Boston College in the ACCT. Of course, that's just a guess.
Interestingly, Clemson will be the first team New Mexico has played all season that is from a Power 5 conference.
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CU Medallion [51550]
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But NOW Clemson is motivated to play!
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:47 PM
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/s
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Team Captain [488]
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Re: Well...if I were to wager a guess...
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Mar 18, 2024, 3:51 PM
[ in reply to Well...if I were to wager a guess... ] |
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I don't think that matters as much as it does in football. Group of 5 schools can be very good in basketball - look at Gonzaga, Florida A&M and Georgetown as examples.
I think we're +1.5 dogs because of our history, both this season and CBB's career. It's one of those things - until you prove me wrong I'm going to bet against you.
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CU Medallion [64593]
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In other words...
Mar 18, 2024, 4:52 PM
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they know Brownell is not a good coach, particularly come tournament time. I wouldn't disagree with that assessment.
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All-In [31315]
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110%er [6099]
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How much are you willing to wager on Clemson basketball?
Mar 18, 2024, 3:45 PM
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I hope we win and all, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
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Orange Blooded [2483]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 18, 2024, 3:49 PM
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1.5 favorite or underdog?
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110%er [7114]
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We are a dog to the Lobos...
Mar 18, 2024, 3:58 PM
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How's that for some tragic irony?
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All-In [32656]
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110%er [5512]
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All-In [31315]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 18, 2024, 5:07 PM
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Vegas seems to know things we do not. I know nothing about N Mexico, but it seems they believe we are pretty even and will depend on which team shows up.
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CU Medallion [65528]
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I really, really would like to see Judge talk Vegas into changing their line.
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Mar 18, 2024, 5:26 PM
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I am sure he would make a compelling argument, and we would suddenly be favored by a dozen. It would only cost them a few millions, a mere bagatelle.
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All-In [44054]
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They know we a football skewl that doesnt care as much about basketball.***
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Mar 18, 2024, 5:48 PM
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110%er [8538]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
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Mar 18, 2024, 6:49 PM
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Easy. Seeds mean nothing to Vegas and only really dumb people bet on NCAA Tournament games anyway.
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All-In [31315]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 18, 2024, 8:15 PM
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Small bets make it interesting. Won’t bet the house on any team in this format.
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Hall of Famer [22365]
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That spread makes the bets 50/50.
Mar 18, 2024, 6:50 PM
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Seems like a lot of bettors agree with the majority of posts on T-net and think Clemson is overrated.
Point spreads have nothing to do with who the experts setting them think will win. It has everything with who the experts setting the spread think the bettors will think who will win.
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Orange Blooded [2533]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 18, 2024, 7:37 PM
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Um, we're not that good. WE should be the 11 seed. Or maybe not got in.
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Commissioner [947]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 18, 2024, 7:49 PM
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ACC ACC ACC
Our league is tough as if not tougher than the sec. Without nc state we get 4 teams in to their 8.
Maybe we should start chanting like zombies.
ACC ACC…
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Walk-On [128]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 18, 2024, 7:51 PM
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Simple….they are better. Watch the games. Vegas knows better than selection committee.
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Recruit [99]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 19, 2024, 8:57 AM
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That makes NO SENSE! How are they better when they've not played a Power 5 Team all season, and the only Common opponent we destroyed and they split with a 10 pt win and 8 pt loss? This is just puzzling to me. We should be about a 6 pt favorite.
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110%er [5512]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 19, 2024, 9:00 AM
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That's like saying "How is Clemson football better, they haven't played the SEC all season". Just because the schedule didn't provide them opportunities to play Power 5 doesn't mean that they aren't a good team.
The metrics are posted all over this thread showing why NM is favored.
I expect us to win, but am not surprised at the line nor will I be surprised if we lose.
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CU Guru [1087]
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Re: Can someone explain how or why an
Mar 19, 2024, 11:28 AM
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Dare I say it ? " Clemsoning " . While we have redefined the meaning of that term on the gridiron , that is not the case with our men's basketball team. We are who they think we are until out performance proves otherwise.
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Replies: 36
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50
