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Replies: 11
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CU Guru [1723]
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Rational analysis vs emotional ranting
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Oct 10, 2023, 8:19 AM
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Culturally as a society and a fan base we’ve become over reactive to small periods of time vs having perspective. Cable sports and news started the fire and social media poured gasoline on it. With that in mind, instead of “fire everyone” emotional ranting with my frustration from Saturday, I thought I’d gain some perspective.
This team reminds me most of 2017 with Kelly Bryant except I think we’re slightly more talented on offense, so I did some research. Remember, that team lost to Syracuse (beat auburn 14-6) and ended the season #1 before losing to bama in Nola.
2017 per game:
Total offense: 430.5
Passing: 235.5
Rushing: 195.0
Turnovers: 1.1
Fg%: 63%
2023 per game:
Total offense: 437.3
Passing: 249.2
Rushing: 188.2
Turnovers: 1.7
Fg %: 40%
Turnovers and fgs are the difference in our results. We are actually producing more yards (and we played citadel on Nov for the FAU/Chas knee jerks) even with the turnovers.
Now, of note, we’ve turned it over consistently worse since 2020 so there is a growing problem.
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Legend [19436]
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Re: Rational analysis vs emotional ranting
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Oct 10, 2023, 8:24 AM
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All the stats show us having a decent year, but the W-L record bites us hard. Thanks for your post and agree with what you said, but we cannot be Analysis National Champions or even Analysis Atlantic Coast Champions now.
Turnovers and execution in red zone has killed us. Getting turnovers on defense? Is that down as well?
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110%er [6127]
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3 plays away, as Dabo says
Oct 10, 2023, 12:18 PM
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which is a bit of a fabrication but still plausible.
Stats/metrics really only tell a story if you like shiny things.
Lots of big yardage and filling stat sheets, but a single turnover makes it meaningless.
Metrics are necessary and putting up big yardage can look real nice on paper. But the stat that can turn all that around, is the dreaded turnover. 2023 is that stat, and the Tigers 2 losses are directly correlated to that stat.
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CU Guru [1723]
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Standout [340]
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Funny. 2021 was when the QB/WR status changed
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Oct 10, 2023, 8:28 AM
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correlation? causation? coincidence? conspiracy?
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All-TigerNet [13057]
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We aren't more talented
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Oct 10, 2023, 8:32 AM
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WR: RRM (Jr), Cain (Jr), Renfrow (Jr), Higgins (Fr)
RB: Feaster (So), Etienne (Fr), Choice (RS Jr)
I'd trade our skills guys for that group any day. I'd take that OL too. Feaster averaged 6.3 YPC and Etienne 7.2 that year. Bryant was fine. Maybe it was because of the superior skill talent he had around him, but he put up better numbers than DJ or Cade (so far). We thought that offense was bad at the time, but I think we have a better perspective on that now after the past 3 years.
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CU Guru [1723]
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Re: We aren't more talented
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Oct 10, 2023, 2:13 PM
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I recall multiple drops by RR and Deon and neither lived up to the hype while here (sound familiar). Renfrow for sure and Deon did at least give you a vertical threat. Higgins came on late. Brown and Beaux are tracking toward similar yardage to Renfrow and Cain. Williams probably matches RR or outperforms.
Mafah 6.6 and Ship 4.9 this year, so yes no Etienne level but I think both better than Feaster. Cade better than Bryant too.
Not sure I agree on Oline and haven’t looked up the stats.
Season is half over so let’s see where we land and I’m EXPECTING improvement. If not, I’ll grab my pitchfork too.
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110%er [8623]
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Re: Rational analysis vs emotional ranting
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Oct 10, 2023, 8:32 AM
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Wise post Wisen. Fans who compare current players to long ago players, our current team to teams from the past and assume we play teams we are "supposed" to beat are doomed to be unhappy. We will get better and have a chance to go 10-2 and go to a good bowl.
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Athletic Dir [896]
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Re: Rational analysis vs emotional ranting
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Oct 10, 2023, 10:08 AM
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This to me is the glaring stat difference between the two teams. Redzone scoring percentage. The 2017 team scored 90.2% of the time when it got into the red zone. The 2023 team is at 69.7% so far.
Comparing apples to apples, the 2017 team by the end of September had a 82.35% scoring percentage in the red zone while the 2023 team is at 58.62%.
Thanks for the stats discussion. I thought the biggest problem was really the turnovers, but our # of turnovers is not much different than other years to this point. Sure turnovers resulting in points is about the worst we have seen, but the real difference in this team and the teams from 2017 to 2022 is red zone scoring percentage. Even in the last couple of years where we were obviously falling off in total performance if the team got into the red zone it scored 75% of the time.
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Legend [19654]
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I thought we were comparing this team to 2016 not 2017?
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Oct 10, 2023, 11:19 AM
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When did those goal posts move?
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Legend [19654]
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Also one thing you're not accounting for is that 2017
Oct 10, 2023, 11:23 AM
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year had quite a few games that included mopup duty by backups. We've only had 2 such games through half a season. Cooper and Johnson played in 7 games that year. Helms and Tyson have only played in 2 thus far.
If you're going to compare apples to apples you'd need to compare the stats of the actual starters. That Kell Bryant lead team ended up on the bench in a lot of games because they blew out their opponent early.
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110%er [6518]
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Re: Rational analysis vs emotional ranting
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Oct 10, 2023, 11:20 AM
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Stats do not matter when you cannot play a complete game of 4 quarters and finish, finding a way to win.
A team will not get ranked, or go to a good bowl, or win over recruits, just because your passing and rushing yards are equivalent to the 2017, or any other previous team. The only “stats” that matter are the final score and the W-L record the end of the season. There’s no emotion in that. It’s reality.
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