Re: On the drive in to work, the guys on the radio assured me

Expect next month (February numbers) to be even higher than .4%. Might even reach a full percentage point. My guess would be .8%ish, but could be higher. And it will be mysterious. Roughly 8 weeks out from maybe 2 weeks ago will see the highest inflation period. February and March numbers will both be MUCH higher than expected. Then it will level out and taper down through May and June's numbers.

I'm telling you they know. Those at the very top, they know. And they're not saying a word. Not a peep. The "experts" that pontificate about those at the very top, they're clueless. BlackRock, Jerome Powell, even Biden knows. This is why Powell is NOT GOING TO LOWER RATES.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.html

Tiggity®

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We have a labor shortage issue that's ongoing. Well, the US and dozens

Feb 13, 2024, 2:27 PM [ in reply to Re: Y'all know my theory on this. We will see. I will say I'm not surprised. ]

of other countries. We have 9 million jobs open and a 3.5% unemployment rate. My theory is it is the actual illnesses from the virus that impacts inflation. When you're sick you're out of work 5 days (per the CDC). Then, about 8 weeks later, the long covid sets in and that impacts productivity as well. When the omicron variant hit worldwide in a 2 month period in early 2022, most people don't know but around 70% of people got infected (mostly mild). BUT, never in history have so many humans gotten sick (5 days off work?), PLUS several weeks later long covid symptoms impacted a percentage of them even more, in a 2 month timeframe. This was an unheard of round of illness for the entire planet. Transmission was on par with (or higher) than measles. Off the scale. A first for scientists who have spent their lives studying respiratory viruses.

Inflation hit (worldwide) in April of 2022. It came seemingly out of nowhere. Sri Lanka had 33% inflation. Most places saw unprecedented rises in inflation. Every country blamed their leaders. Russia blamed Putin. Ukraine was blamed by Biden. Money printing was blamed as well. Some countries (Sri Lanka) had revolutions over the spike in inflation. Very few were immune from the impact.

Again, no one knows or cares (until markets drop anyway), but in the US, per wastewater monitoring, we reached levels of virus similar to (or greater than) the original omicron outbreak in 1/2022. Again mostly mild, only killing a maximum of 2,500 Americans a week. This is why I predicted inflation will spike once again this spring. The January numbers reflect the virus of early December and represents just the start of the increase. Expect February and March numbers to go way higher than .4%. There is also an 8 week gap between "recovering" and long covid symptoms setting in (for those who get it), and that also lowers productivity.

So today the CPI unexpectedly shot up .4%, way higher than any expectations. Stocks are down -560 points now on the DJIA. Everyone was expecting Powell to lower rates, and I said NO WAY. Why? Because he knows what is behind the inflation. Furthermore, right on queue, we get this seemingly totally unrelated news article today, coming from multiple sources. Make no mistake, this WaPo article is a direct response to the CPI report and the market rout that's happening. Sad thing is no one follows the 5 day guidelines anyway, so don't expect much impact.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/02/13/covid-isolation-guidelines-cdc-change/

Jerome Powell knows everything I mentioned above. The federal reserve has actually studied covid and long covid's impact on the economy and labor force. I would not be shocked to see CPI numbers go to 1% or higher next month, and go up several percentage points by summer, again. It won't be as bad as early 2022, but it could easily be half that bad. The Fed simply can't lower rates in an environment with periodic shortages of labor. And yes, the money printing has kept demand elevated, but most pandemic savings have already been eaten by inflation already. Furthermore, wages are rising, which is a sign Powell and central banks HATE to see. This will perpetuate inflationary pressure well into the future. Savings offsetting inflation is one thing, but when that runs out, wages rise next. Nothing will stop inflation until demand falls sharply (or by some miracle we get more labor from the labor fairy).

DJIA dropped another 100 points since I typed this post. -700 now. The money supply issue is now off the table as causing inflation going forward from today. Must be Israel or the Palestinians I guess, or Biden, or Haley, or something else. Always an excuse to avoid the 800lb elephant in the corner, staring us in the face.

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Y'all know my theory on this. We will see. I will say I'm not surprised.

"Roughly 8 weeks out from maybe 2 weeks ago"

That's 6 weeks. Sorry for the math.

No, no, no!

On the drive in to work, the guys on the radio assured me

Re: On the drive in to work, the guys on the radio assured me

Prices are only up 19% since Biden took office...

Did they also tell you that the "economy" IS "booming"...

you have a JOB in THIS ECONOMY?***

The average inflation rate of the dollar between 2020 and 2024 was

Re: Y'all know my theory on this. We will see. I will say I'm not surprised.

Re: Y'all know my theory on this. We will see. I will say I'm not surprised.

No one is predicting that??

Re: No one is predicting that??

We have a labor shortage issue that's ongoing. Well, the US and dozens

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