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CU Guru [1237]
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Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Jan 31, 2021, 3:42 PM
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We currently stand at 10-5, and this basketball season has provided us with lots of data; let us assess:
1. We can beat most middling non-ACC Power Five teams (Purdue, Maryland, MS) on neutral courts 2. We can even beat some pretty good non-ACC Power Five teams on a neutral court (Alabama) 3. We can beat some pretty decent ACC teams on our home court (FSU, Louisville, NCS) 4. We are likely to lose to ACC teams with roughly similar talent in away games (VT) 5. We can even beat some lower ranking teams (Miami) in away games 6. We are likely to be blown out by ACC teams who have superior athletes in away games (Virginia, GT, FSU, Duke)
Given this data, what is a realistic expectation for the rest of the season? Our remaining schedule and my predictions follow:
1. UNC at home: not sure; a win would be great 2. Syracuse at home: win 3. GT at home: not sure; a win would be great 4. ND away: win a close one 5. Pitt away: lose 6. WF away: close win 7. Miami at home: win 8. Pitt at home: not sure, a win would be great
If my predictions are correct and we lose all three of the “not sure” games, we will finish with a 14-9 record, which will be good enough for an NIT bid, but will keep us out of the NCAA. If we can win two of the three “not sure” games, we finish with a 16-7 record, with some very good wins, and an NCAA invite is likely (right?). Finishing 16-7 with the talent we have will be a good reasonable performance from this team/coach. I don’t think too many expected us to finish 16-7 at the beginning of the season.
So I humbly recommend that we don’t start thinking that we are a top 10, top five, “best ever” team when we get some fair/good wins; and also not start trashing Coach BB, every time we are blown out. Let’s look at the data, keep reasonable expectations, and back the team and the coach until the end of the season. We still have a lot to play for in my opinion. What are your “reasonable” expectations for the remainder of the season?
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CU Guru [1939]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Jan 31, 2021, 5:20 PM
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I say we close out the regular season 3-5
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CU Medallion [55695]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Jan 31, 2021, 5:26 PM
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The biggest problem with our BB team is that, we do for a change have a lot of talent, with that comes to many players wanting to be the star player on the team, and we get the very same results as with to many Chiefs, and not enough Indians syndrome. There is no set leader on the team calling, directing what we're trying to do on the court. To much ball hogging going on without setting the shots up for who ever has the hottest hand in the games!!! Fix that, and we have a good team bc, the talent, and depth is there!!!!
Message was edited by: allinallorangeallthetime52®
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Hall of Famer [21853]
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Can’t judge this team on overall data. Have to judge it post COVID break.
Jan 31, 2021, 5:51 PM
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And that team struggles to shoot AND defend.
Expect 2 to 3 more wins in the remaining regular season.
And don’t expect much in the NIT.
THE END.
(Please just move on to baseball. This basketball team will make you want to pull your hair out.)
~JKB
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Walk-On [116]
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So in other words....
Feb 1, 2021, 12:52 PM
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The coaching gets a covid pass?
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All-In [44121]
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110%er [5521]
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Re: So basically, you want to throw out the data that
Feb 1, 2021, 2:59 PM
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How about you combine it all and come up with the conclusion that we stink...
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110%er [9015]
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So...the data tells us “not sure, a win would be great” ...
1
Feb 1, 2021, 7:27 AM
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Got it.
Sounds a bit like democrats “following the science.”
Good idea on the write up, though. Appreciate your time and effort.
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: So...the data tells us “not sure, a win would be great” ...
Feb 1, 2021, 11:02 AM
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I like to hedge my bets.
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CU Medallion [51579]
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110%er [5521]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 11:20 AM
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That 35 point Virginia loss was at home. We haven't beat a decent team since December.
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Orange Blooded [2922]
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Louisville is a decent team...
Feb 1, 2021, 12:02 PM
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Now it certainly was ugly and didn’t produce any momentum...but they are a decent squad. The schedule is about to get friendlier...whether or not we can take advantage of that is a big question
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CU Guru [1237]
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Orange Blooded [2922]
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Aside from the UVA debacle...we have won at home...
Feb 1, 2021, 12:11 PM
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And aside from the very close win at Miami, we have lost true road games. The schedule is about to get friendlier. I don’t know if we can take advantage...that remains to be seen. I think 4-4 the rest of the way is the floor. 5-3 could happen. 6-2 would mean that we started hitting shots and regained the December swagger.
After looking at the schedule....don’t be surprised if we get tagged with a trip to Syracuse on March 3. They have a home game on March 1 and nothing after that. We have a week between home games on Feb. 27 and March 6.
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: Aside from the UVA debacle...we have won at home...
Feb 1, 2021, 12:17 PM
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I think how we do in games usually also depends on how well Simms matches up with the other team's center. If Simms is having issues (usually against taller centers), we have to rely completely on the 3-point game and that usually does not work. If Simms has a good game we usually do well. I have not paid too much attention to some of the other ACC teams. Can anyone educate me on how the match up at center looks like in the forthcoming games?
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Orange Blooded [2922]
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I haven't seen enough of the other teams to know.....
Feb 1, 2021, 12:57 PM
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However, my guess is that the worst is behind us as far as the opposition goes (FSU and UVA in particular are very difficult for us.). I think we actually had an advantage with Simms down low against Louisville....but instead kept launching 3s and won that game solely on defense and Simms and Dawes putting the team on their shoulders. I assume UNC has some size that will be tough to deal with. I think the size of the other team's guards affects us as well....and that will be a factor.
But the main thing is this team will have to find a way to play better overall and not shoot 20% from 3 point land. And find our defense again like we did against Louisville.
There are some other trends that we need to figure out. GT beat us twice last season and then again this season there, for instance.
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CU Medallion [66101]
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I hate to sound like Negative Nancy, but making the
Feb 1, 2021, 1:25 PM
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NCAA Tourney only matters if you think there is some infinitesimal chance at least that you could win it. With the current bricklayer status of our team, that is ludicrous. We would be one and done, or at most two and done when the bricklayers show up in force. The team just does not shoot well enough to string Tourney wins together. It gives me the sads to say that, but hope has been stomped into the mud too many times to think anything else.
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110%er [5521]
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Re: I hate to sound like Negative Nancy, but making the
Feb 1, 2021, 1:38 PM
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Making the tourney shows progress and success in the program. It's a recruiting tool due to the added exposure and the perceived opportunity it highlights.
But yes, we would lose. Quickly.
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: I hate to sound like Negative Nancy, but making the
Feb 1, 2021, 3:42 PM
[ in reply to I hate to sound like Negative Nancy, but making the ] |
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One never knows; Honor or Dawes can get hot from the three-point range - hope for the best, (mentally) prepare for the worst.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 1:46 PM
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What data?
Lets get to it. IN our 1-4 slide, we have struggled to shoot above 50% from 3. The GT game, we shot 50% but they shot something close to 60%. On the other had, with the exception of duke ONLY shooting 34% or about there, everyone else was shooting 40%+ from the arc, if not 50%+
W have won (rarely) when a team was shooting well (30%+) from the ARC. See Purdue/Miss State (but a lot of tunovers). So we made more 3s than they did but took 10+ more shots. Meanwhile, we have won bad shooting nights like Alabama and Cuse.
We currently average about 30% from the Arc, but vary widely. GT, Maryland, and Miami were above 40% but we were bad against Bama, Cuse and FSU. Our ability to force errors/turnovers seem to vary greatly too. So it kinda goes in swings with little middle for the 3pt% either 40%+ or 20%
We have a lot mid-tier competition left so, things should look good (ie we dont have to play VT, UVA, Duke, UofL) thus if we are an upper 1/3 team, we will go 6-2 or better (16-7). If wer are a mid-table team 4-4 or 14-9. If we are a Shyatt level team 10-13).
The bigger issue is that on away games, we are giving up 37% from the arc. That is not a win. Home, we are only 32%. It seems that in the last few games, our D has been off and of course out shots aren't falling. We get a hto game, and GT is playing with cheat codes.
If we can keep out 3pt % difference to above 0-5%, we win 7 or more of our last 8. If we are 0 to below 5%, we win 5-6. If we are below minus 5-10% its a crapshoot, and 10 points below our opponents we are toast.
Right now, we are 13 of 15 in % from the arc. Miami and UNC are below us. % shooting is dead last. So ti comes back to see if our funk is a bigger issue or if our D will turn around.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 1:47 PM
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* in our 1-4 slide we have struggled to shoot 20% from the arc
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110%er [5521]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 1:54 PM
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Thanks...didn't see your edit before I posted.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 1:59 PM
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No worries, my brain/fingers were already thinking about that GT game...
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110%er [5521]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 1:53 PM
[ in reply to Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data ] |
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"We have struggled to shoot above 50% from 3"?? Nobody shoots 50% from 3 on a regular basis. Nobody.
We are giving up tons of 3s. That's because our defense is terrible, not because we are unlucky.
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110%er [5521]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 2:09 PM
[ in reply to Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data ] |
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Win/Loss - Our 3pt % - Opponent 3pt % - Made 3s +/-
W : 20% : 31% : +1 : Outplayed from the arc W : 36% : 43% : +1 : Outplayed from the arc W : 35% : 7% : +7 : Won the arc W : 45% : 33% : +3 : Won the arc W : 26% : 14% : +2 : Won the arc L : 40% : 31% : +5 : Won the arc W : 37% : 32% : +3 : Won the arc W : 29% : 28% : -2 : Even W : 43% : 41% : +2 : Even W : 30% : 37% : +2 : Outplayed from the arc L : 22% : 56% : -10 : Outplayed from the arc L : 50% : 62% : -7 : Outplayed from the arc L : 17% : 43% : -7 : Outplayed from the arc W : 20% : 21% : +2 : Even L : 24% : 32% : -5 : Outplayed from the arc
When we win the arc: 4-1 When we lose the arc: 3-4 When even: 3-0
We are living and dying by the 3 on both sides of the ball, and since we don't have anyone that can shoot, it's been a lot of dying lately. The massive disparity between us and Virginia, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Duke over the past few weeks is staggering.
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110%er [6825]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 2:35 PM
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Yup, that is modern basketball in a nutshell
and we are not just inconsistent from 3, we are dead last in shooting percentage in the ACC... granted, that is because we hoist up the 3 every chance.
Yeah, if we compare ourselves to UVA/Duke - national title contenders, we will see the gap. I am more interested in that we are beating the GT/Wake/Miami/NC States. I want to make sure we can get to above mid-table in the acc before we get to elite status.
Normally there is 2-3 team that are .800 in conference and then a cluster mash of 9-9 or 10-8 teams. Beat the cluster mashup first.
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CU Guru [1237]
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 10:03 PM
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I have 3 toss up victories. Hope I’m wrong!
1. UNC at home: as always a unc reserve wing player with career performance and matchup problems inside 2. Syracuse at home: shooting is terrible right now and their zone d is a problem 3. GT at home: hot team with great player ? 4. ND away: away game 5. Pitt away: another away game 6. WF away: toss up away game 7. Miami at home: toss up 8. Pitt at home: toss up
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CU Guru [1237]
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Re: Let's discuss the remaining basketball season based on data
Feb 1, 2021, 10:17 PM
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I hope you are wrong too.
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