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All-American [580]
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Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 10:27 AM
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1. Bama 2. Ohio State 3. Clemson 4.Louisville
The reason for this is there has to be some penalty for losing. Therefore Clemson drops a spot Washington and michigan are on the outside looking in. Now I could see a possibility where they keep us at 2 and move Louisville to three and Ohio State for, but these are the four teams that will definitely be in tomorrow night
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Orange Blooded [3981]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 10:32 AM
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My exact one
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Team Captain [481]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 10:39 AM
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I dont care as long as we are in. I have no preference in what number is in front of our name, aside from the fact that it would impact proximity of the first game. We almost lost to Syracuse this time last year, and had a slightly underwhelming showing vs Wake, SC, and UNC, and you see how the team responded once they got into the playoff. They were on a completely different level. This season is still about this team, and if they make the playoff they'll win it.
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All-In [28641]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 10:37 AM
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michigan will be in spot 4. on the road, last second fg. cards game was 23-12 with hardly any time left against wake. blocked kick and int led to points. they all think big 10 is best conference so i see no reason to put in cards. if they're in that spot, they last for 2 days. thu they lose
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110%er [7657]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 10:37 AM
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UL's one loss was to a higher ranked team. It wouldn't surprise me to see that go differently. Not saying it will, just saying it wouldn't surprise me.
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110%er [5287]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 11:25 AM
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Question becomes...which is more important, who you lost to or who you've beaten?
Does a team that lost by 1 to unranked Iowa while having wins against Colorado (currently #12), Wisconsin (currently #7), and Penn State (currently #10) necessarily lose out to a team with a loss to a ranked Clemson, but only a win vs #18 FSU? I'm not sure they do.
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All-American [580]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 11:36 AM
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Very good point. I completely dismissed Michigan schedule without really looking at it. I think clearly the top four teams will be Alabama Michigan Ohio State and Clemson
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Hall of Famer [20588]
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I think Ohio St will be 2
Nov 14, 2016, 10:37 AM
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They have been impressive the past 2 weeks... plus, I just get the impression the committee wants Bama-OSU or Bama-Louisville in the finals.
I will be pissed if they have Louisville ranked above Clemson though.
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All-American [580]
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Re: I think Ohio St will be 2
Nov 14, 2016, 10:40 AM
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They wont
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All-American [580]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 10:41 AM
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I think if Troy is in the playoff committee's top 25, then we will be number 2 because we will have four wins against top 25 teams
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Starter [376]
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Good point - Troy is kicking butttttttt right now!
Nov 14, 2016, 10:44 AM
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Better for our resume.
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Starter [376]
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I'm fine with this***
Nov 14, 2016, 10:42 AM
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Legend [17407]
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If OSU beats Michigan, then B1G champion
Nov 14, 2016, 10:44 AM
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Could be a two loss Penn State or Wiscomsin.
That would be interesting !
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Team Captain [481]
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Weather needs to be reaallllyy bad
Nov 14, 2016, 11:31 AM
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One of those winter storms you cant see across the field. Thats the only way OSU loses to MSU in East Lansing.
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Orange Blooded [3009]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 11:13 AM
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1. Bama 2. OSU 3. Clemson 4. Michigan 5. Louisville 6. Wisconsin 7. Washington 8. Penn St 9. Oklahoma 10. West Virginia
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Legend [19640]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 11:13 AM
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Can you imagine the utter hell that will be spewed by Louisville fans if they remain 5th after 3 of 4 lose in front of them?
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110%er [5287]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 11:36 AM
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Makes sense though....
Committee does not give incentive for Margin of Victory.
So...technically. Clemson: 1) 3 top 25 wins (potentially 4 if Troy sneaks into the playoff committee top 25 like they didin the AP) 2) Won the head-to head vs Louisville 3) Has a stronger strength of schedule than Louisville AND Michigan in both versions (ESPN and teamrankings.com). 5) Lost to a team that Louisville doesn't play, so no way to compare outcome...just becomes a matching 1 loss in the records.
Michigan: 1) SOS is comparable to Louisville (they sit directly under Louisville on teamrankings.com, but above Louisville on ESPN's) 2) A worse loss than Louisville's and no head-to head. BUT 3) 3 top 15 wins (Colorado, Wisconsin, and Penn State)
vs
Louisville: 1) A worse SOS than Clemson...SOS compared to Michigan depends which version is being used by the committee. 2) Only loss is to a top ranked team, only hurts them in the head-to head vs Clemson. 3) Only quality win though is vs #18 FSU.
SOS: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other http://www.espn.com/college-football/playoffPicture
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110%er [5287]
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Re: Guaranteed CFP rankings tomorrow...
Nov 14, 2016, 11:50 AM
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I'd possibly swap #4 and #5...#4 Michigan...#5 Louisville.
Let's look at the protocol in detail:
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
- Championships won - Strength of schedule - Head-to-head competition (if it occurred) - Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
Some of the guidelines and protocols expected to be established to guide the committee would include, but not be limited to, the following: - While it is understood that committee members will take into consideration all kinds of data including polls, committee members will be required to discredit polls wherein initial rankings are established before competition has occurred; - Any polls that are taken into consideration by the selection committee must be completely open and transparent to the public; - Strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and championships won must be specifically applied as tie-breakers between teams that look similar; - Committee members associated with any team under consideration during the selection process will be required to recuse themselves from any deliberations associated with that team;
So from that, we can conclude the following when comparing 7-1 Clemson, 7-1 Louisville, and 7-1 Michigan.
1) Clemson's head to head win vs Louisville as well as their higher SOS should put Clemson above Louisville automatically. There is no comparative outcome vs Pitt with Louisville, so that loss should just equally be applied as only a loss on the record, regardless the opponent. If it isn't, then again, the head-to head gets applied and still places Clemson ahead.
2) So now we are looking at Louisville and Michigan. Louisville's SOS varies which you look at (teamrankings.com has Louisville one spot above Michigan, the one on ESPN has Michigan's SOS better than Louisville's)...so depends which they use, if not both. Michigan has 3 top 15 wins, where Louisville only has 1 top 20 win. Louisville's loss is better when comparing losses, but Michigan's wins are better by 2 teams worth when comparing wins. So depends which they view as more important. I bank on the wins being more important than the 1 point loss. Apply ESPN's version of the SOS and Michigan should go above Louisville....thus:
1) Alabama 2) OH State 3) Clemson 4) Michigan 5) Louisville
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