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All-TigerNet [12943]
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Here's where we stand the morning of Selection Sunday
Mar 17, 2019, 11:08 AM
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So, here's where we stand on Selection Sunday. This is extremely interesting, and it's hard for me to figure out why we are so low on so many "experts" lists. I don't think we are as low as they make it out to be, but a strong argument can be made either way.
The one thing you have to keep in mind is that not all QUAD 1 games are the same. 7 of our 10 Q1 losses came against #'s 1-21. The other three were against #33 and 44. It's still hard for me to get past the numbers. Clemson has the 2nd highest NET of all "bubble teams", and the highest KenPom rating. It's really not even close on those metrics. Below I have listed Clemson, then other "bubble teams" as of this morning. The first number is NET, the second is KenPom.
I know it's not a committee metric, but keep this in mind. Only a handful of teams have ever received an at-large with a KenPom above 60. No team has EVER received an at-large with a KenPom above 70. EVER. (see Temple and St. Johns)
Two helpful links below the teams that explain NET and what teams Quad wins are.
Clemson: NET- 35, KenPom- 29
NCST (33, 32)
Ohio St.(55, 44)
AZST (63, 61)
Temple (56, 76)
St. Johns (73, 79)
TCU (52, 48)
Belmont (47, 54)
Texas (38, 30)
Alabama (59, 60)
https://herosports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament-rpi-net-ahah
https://herosports.com/ncaa-tournament/college-basketball-net-rankings-ahah
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All-TigerNet [11604]
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Re: Here's where we stand the morning of Selection Sunday
Mar 17, 2019, 11:11 AM
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Hey, Snowtown:
Check out this Twitter handle. Evidentially they are tweeting stastical reasons to NCAAT committee members why Clemson belongs in the field. What do you think of this and their arguments??
https://mobile.twitter.com/clemsontigersk1
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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don't know who that is... but their stats and numbers are
Mar 17, 2019, 11:14 AM
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correct...
hard to argue
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All-TigerNet [11604]
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Re: don't know who that is... but their stats and numbers are
Mar 17, 2019, 11:22 AM
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I just hope we have a voice as far as the AD and the ACC.
DRad I’m sure knows the politics to getting reasons voiced with his experience especially on the football playoff committee...
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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this is a great point that came up yesterday... I think
Mar 17, 2019, 11:24 AM
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there has to be a process for teams to lobby the committee on their behalf... or at least for the conference to argue their teams...
If so, we have a very strong argument when you look at the numbers
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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Orange Blooded [4423]
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snow...
Mar 17, 2019, 11:17 AM
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Do we know exactly how many spots are "up for grabs"?
I don't think there are any bids to be stolen today
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All-In [44144]
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The point is that we aren’t “stealing” a bid.
Mar 17, 2019, 11:21 AM
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We deserve one on our own merit based on the measurements that matter (NET, KenPom, etc.).
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Orange Blooded [4423]
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I agree... I was referring to games being played today
Mar 17, 2019, 11:23 AM
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Nm
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All-In [44144]
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Ahh, sorry, I misread your post.***
Mar 17, 2019, 11:24 AM
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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I don't know how people define that... I could look at the
Mar 17, 2019, 11:22 AM
[ in reply to snow... ] |
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last 5 teams Lunardi has in, and argue why none of them should be in. Does that mean there are 5 spots? I don't know how "available spots" is determined.
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Heisman Winner [112288]
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Re: Here's where we stand the morning of Selection Sunday
Mar 17, 2019, 11:24 AM
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please let me know how this plays out.
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All-In [44144]
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Stay by your computers!***
Mar 17, 2019, 11:38 AM
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Rock Defender [50]
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Re: Here's where we stand the morning of Selection Sunday
Mar 17, 2019, 11:40 AM
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Appreciate all your work keeping an eye in this. Curious: what’s the highest (best) KenPom that ever got left out?
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All-TigerNet [11604]
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Re: Here's where we stand the morning of Selection Sunday
Mar 17, 2019, 11:48 AM
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Appreciate all your work keeping an eye in this. Curious: what’s the highest (best) KenPom that ever got left out?
I’d like to know that as well?
I’m going out on a limb and say my darkhorse First Four are NC State vs Belmont and Clemson vs St Johns. I say TCU and Arizona St. get left out...
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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In my opinion, if St. Johns get an at-large...
Mar 17, 2019, 11:50 AM
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the committee needs to seriously re-evaluate how they look at things
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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good question..
Mar 17, 2019, 11:49 AM
[ in reply to Re: Here's where we stand the morning of Selection Sunday ] |
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2018- Penn St. @ 19 and St. Mary @ 32
2017- TCU @ 29 and Texas Tech @ 41
2016- SMU @ 16 and Florida @ 35
2015- Florida @ 34 and Vanderbilt @ 37
What is interesting about this year is... if you look at teams above us, they are all in without question (only iffy would be Florida, one spot above us)
If we don't make it, we would definitely be the highest KenPom left out this year.
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Rock Defender [50]
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Re: good question..
Mar 17, 2019, 12:00 PM
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Thanks! Seems like we have more of a shot than I thought. Fingers crossed.
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All-TigerNet [11604]
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Re: good question..
Mar 17, 2019, 12:03 PM
[ in reply to good question.. ] |
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2018- Penn St. @ 19 and St. Mary @ 32
2017- TCU @ 29 and Texas Tech @ 41
2016- SMU @ 16 and Florida @ 35
2015- Florida @ 34 and Vanderbilt @ 37
What is interesting about this year is... if you look at teams above us, they are all in without question (only iffy would be Florida, one spot above us)
If we don't make it, we would definitely be the highest KenPom left out this year.
Ok. I’ll change it to TCU vs Clemson. Lol
I’d also like to know what those teams who got snubbed records were overall andin their conference?
A lot of people are arguing that Clemson has a similar profile to Syracuse last year in their 9-9 ACC record and overall 19 wins who got in.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Here's where we stand the morning of Selection Sunday
Mar 17, 2019, 12:38 PM
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The metrics found on the team sheet are NET, KPI, SOR, BPI, POM, and SAG. I've listed 7 bubble teams which the analysts seem to think are more likely to be selected than Clemson.
Clemson: Net - 35, KPI - 53, SOR - 42, BPI - 29, POM - 29, and SAG - 29.
Baylor: Net - 39, KPI - 35, SOR - 50, BPI - 41, POM - 41, and SAG - 44.
Belmont: Net - 47, KPI - 62, SOR - 39, BPI - 46, POM - 54, and SAG - 60.
TCU: Net - 52, KPI - 39, SOR - 44, BPI - 50, POM - 48, and SAG - 39.
Ohio State: Net - 55, KPI - 50, SOR - 37, BPI - 40, POM - 44, and SAG - 41.
Temple: Net - 56, KPI - 43, SOR - 45, BPI - 72, POM - 76, and SAG - 68.
Arizona State: Net - 63, KPI - 34, SOR - 55, BPI - 60, POM - 61, and SAG - 52.
St. John's: Net - 73, KPI - 41, SOR - 53, BPI - 69, POM - 79, and SAG - 65.
KPI is the only metric that doesn't look good for us. Outside of KPI, Belmont and Ohio State have better SOR than us, but Belmont has a worse KPI. I could see taking Ohio State or Belmont over Clemson, but the rest of these teams have no business being included in the field over us, unless the committee weighs KPI heavily or just ignores 5/6 metrics.
Also, this whole emphasis on Q1 wins seems weird to me given that the NET should take such wins into account, along with all other quads. Focusing solely on "quality" wins and then ignoring the one metric that specifically takes these into account just seems...off.
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All-TigerNet [12943]
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Good post... great info!
Mar 17, 2019, 12:49 PM
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I agree on the Q1 emphasis. I would think NET takes all that into account. Also, the Q1 games are not equal. Far from it.
Temple, St. John’s, and AZST have no business in the field.
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All-TigerNet [11604]
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Re: Good post... great info!
Mar 17, 2019, 1:04 PM
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Also, lot of media are now saying Washington might not get in over
Az State if the PAC 12 only gets two teams. The Huskies have beaten nobody.
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50
