Re: Good job...it's obvious that you've done your research...

Who would have seen this past week turning out with so many crazy outcomes? I definitely did not. With so much of a mess it was much more difficult to set my rankings this week, at least all but #1.

Again, I first took a look at the top teams in the country and crunched some numbers, first taking a look at each team's performance against teams with a winning record, with emphasis on wins against Power 5 conference teams. Obviously a team's record was taken into consideration at this time, as I compared a given team's win/loss record against its strength of schedule. I then generated my first set rankings. This first set was fundamentally flawed, though, since it did not take into account a team's wins against ranked opponents, so I took a look at each team and adjusted the rankings accordingly.

Here's what I came up with:

Week 11 FBS Rankings (Per Me)

Rank Team (Prev)
1. Clemson (2)
2. Alabama (7)
3. Iowa (4)
4. LSU (1)
5. Stanford (6)
6. Notre Dame (8)
7. Oklahoma State (13)
8. Florida(5)
9. Utah(10)
10. Michigan State (3)
11. Michigan (16)
12. Ohio State (11)
13. Baylor (12)
14. Northwestern (17)
15. TCU (14)
16. North Carolina (25)
17. Oklahoma (21)
18. Houston (24)
19. Wisconsin (NR)
20. Florida State (20)
21. UCLA (22)
22. Navy (NR)
23. Memphis (9)
24. Mississippi State (19)
25. Temple (23)

Once again, please feel free to pick these rankings apart. I enjoy hearing everyone's take on what I've put together, and I'm looking forward to some really good discussions. Until next week...

JLyday

Scout Team [196]

TigerPulse: 90%

Posts: 265

Joined: 12/26/12

Re: A few thoughts/questions...

Nov 10, 2015, 12:04 PM [ in reply to A few thoughts/questions... ]

I'll start with the easiest of all... Baylor. Baylor hasn't played anybody, and I mean that in the most literal sense of the word. They are the only team in the Top 25 that has not played even one game against an opponent with a winning record. Their undefeated record, at this point, doesn't tell us anything about the team. They have a few good games left to play, and if they win out they will almost certainly earn a spot in the playoffs.

Next is Ohio State. Much like Baylor, OSU hasn't played the caliber of opponent that the other teams have. Ohio State may be undefeated, but the Buckeyes have no games against current Top 25 teams. Again, like with Baylor, that will change in the coming weeks, and because Iowa will most likely win out, Ohio State should have a signature win by the end of the year, should they finish undefeated, and they will most likely earn a trip to playoff land as well.

If you take an objective look at the Florida/MSU/Michigan teams what you will find is that they stack up very well in SOS so far. Now, that being said, even if they continue to win each week they will fall in the rankings if teams like Ohio State and Baylor continue to win. If OSU and Baylor lose, then these teams, especially MSU and Florida, begin to look like black horse teams that could steal a spot on New Year's Day, or even in the CFP. Just depends on how the cards fall.

LSU ahead of Notre Dame? Interesting, I know. Doesn't seem right. Until you dig a bit deeper that is. LSU has played one of the best schedules to date, with a 4-1 record against teams with a winning record, and three of those four wins coming against Power 5 conference teams, and two of those wins coming against teams ranked in the Top 25, a feat only a handful of teams in the nation can claim. Notre Dame, despite only having a single loss to the #1 team, Clemson, has an overall weaker schedule, so far, especially when compared against the likes of LSU. Notre Dame has a 4-1 record against teams with a winning record, with only two of those wins coming against Power 5 teams. Notre Dame does have two wins against teams currently ranked in the Top 25, but they come against Navy and Temple, neither of which are Power 5 teams. When the quality of Notre Dame's wins are compared against the quality of LSU's wins you will find that LSU has the upper hand. Notre Dame does claim the best loss in the country, but if we look at it in terms of who wins which metric you will see that LSU wins easily. They tie in record versus winning teams but LSU wins because of the quality of the wins, LSU wins in wins versus winning Power 5 teams, LSU wins in wins versus Top 25 teams, and Notre Dame wins with the best loss. That's a 3-1 LSU win, as much as I would personally prefer it to be the other way around.

Oh, I almost forgot about Iowa. The Hawkeyes easily have on of the strongest records at this point, being undefeated with two wins against Top 25 teams, and a 4-0 record against teams with a winning record, all of which are Power 5 teams. Iowa could fall in the last few weeks because of a lack of SOS, and because we should get a better picture on Ohio State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Michigan State, as they all boast a better SOS down the stretch. It will be interesting to watch.

Great thoughts/questions. I hope that I've done a good enough job here shedding some light on my thought process with each team. Let me know what you think!

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Week 11 Rankings - Ahead of CFP This Time!

Im old and don't fall for the eye tests

Re: Im old and don't fall for the eye tests

You use the eye test.

Re: Week 11 Rankings - Ahead of CFP This Time!

A few thoughts/questions...

ESPiN has disallowed the use of 'Good loss,' as a metric...

Lol...the CFP has so many tools at their disposal....

Re: A few thoughts/questions...

Good job...it's obvious that you've done your research...

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