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Hall of Famer [20550]
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Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 6:48 PM
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Amazing how simple the playoff picture looks after only five weeks. There's really less than a dozen teams legit still in it.
The SEC has a lot up for grabs. Alabama leads the polls at #1 but if you pay attention to Bama, they tend to look great early and late in seasons...and look distinctly mediocre in the middle, and they're about to hit the middle - and very challenging - part of their schedule. Texas A&M is unbeaten and could challenge them in the West and Tennessee remains somehow unbeaten in the East. In related news, it's now official: the Lucky Golden Horseshoe that used to reside up Les Miles' butt is now being firmly clutched in Butch Jones' sweaty little hands. How he acquired that horseshoe is probably a subject best avoided, but he looks a bit like Gollum with his Precious holding it. Disturbing. But it's still fascinating to see a complete scumbag like Jones get outcoached, out game-planned, and outplayed each and every week...and still win games when he waves that freakin' horseshoe around like Lord Sauron brandishing the One Ring, and watching footballs do just insane stuff all over the park before astonished Tennessee players hold them up in the end zone as the clock runs out. Somebody really needs to take that thing from him before he hurts somebody, though. Les Miles was at least a nice guy; Butch Jones is waving that Golden Horseshoe around like a three-year-old with his daddy's gun.
It's Ohio State and Michigan for the Big 10's berth. Smart money says OSU, since they actually have talent. Michigan has Sleepover Jim and some tight end called Butt. And their brand of football is dangerous to narcoleptics and those operating heavy machinery.
Clemson stands alone in the ACC Atlantic...yesterday's match against Louisville really did become winner-take-all since UNC did us the solid of knocking off FSU in Tally, meaning the 'Noles are now two games down and therefore almost certainly out of the conference and playoff picture. UNC, Miami, and maybe - maybe! - a Virginia Tech squad that has been much re-invigorated under Justin Fuente are the three teams that could possibly await us in the ACC title game. Pitt's an extreme dark horse but they're already two games down in the Coastal.
The last spot almost certainly currently belongs to Washington, the Pac-12's lone remaining unbeaten. They really are starting to resemble Chris Peterson's old Boise State teams in terms of effectiveness and incisiveness...no, they do not have a world of talent, they just execute astoundingly well and resemble a well-oiled machine. If Washington stumbles, though, Houston and Louisville will likely vie for that last remaining playoff spot, with their November 17th matchup against the Cardinals becoming an effective play-in game.
Oh, and yeah. The Baylor Bears are still unbeaten at 5-0 and are technically alive in the Big 12, though anybody who's been forced to endure any Big 12 football this year - or actually watched the Bears play, will not be convinced. Despite their Board of Regents' best attempts to rehabilitate their culture - they've already fired their President, Chancellor, athletic director, and head football coach - Baylor still seems much about beating down those too weak to defend themselves, as their Pepper Hamilton reports and astoundingly weak early-season schedule would show you. They almost slipped up yesterday against Iowa State and needed a last-second field goal to secure a 45-42 victory over the mighty Cyclones to remain undefeated. On the bright side, a Bears' staffer did drag national activist Brenda Tracy into their office and apparently demanded to know what the heck she was doing there at Baylor - while also loudly insisting that Art Briles did nothing wrong, so you can tell that despite all those firings, the Please Stop Dragging The Womenz Into The Bushes message is really taking there in Waco. Rock on. #astoundinghardheadedness
Anybody see any other possibilities I'm missing?
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110%er [5287]
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Re: Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 7:00 PM
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Louisville, if they beat Houston, could possibly go ahead of a 1 or 2 loss conference champ of the Big 10 or Big 12
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All-TigerNet [10402]
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Re: Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 7:08 PM
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The winner of the Louisville or Houston game will only get in if the PAC does not have an undefeated
Team.
So they better hope Washington loses, even if Houston wins them all.
A undefeated Washington team would go over them.
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All-TigerNet [10909]
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Depends on whether Houston or Louisville wins their game
Oct 2, 2016, 7:31 PM
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If Houston wina and finishes undefeated, they could get in over a one loss Pac 12 champ. But if Louisville wins, they would still have the one loss to us and not be the ACC champ, so a one loss PAC 12 champ would probably get in ahead of Louisville.
I think it will be very hard for a one loss team, that did not win their division, to ever get in the playoff, unless a couple of the conference champs have two losses.
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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one loss PAC 12 champ gets in over
Oct 2, 2016, 8:05 PM
[ in reply to Re: Playoff picture is now very simple ] |
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A one loss UL team. Committee has proven to put a high priority for conference champion.
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All-In [25037]
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you think it would matter what type of loss it is though?
Oct 2, 2016, 8:38 PM
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Like say Washington loses to a bad Oregon state team by 2 scores but wins the pac 12
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All-TigerNet [14233]
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Re: you think it would matter what type of loss it is though?
Oct 2, 2016, 9:57 PM
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Have no idea and would be the greatest challenge ever offered to the committee but I think they would go with Washington after they won their championship. Winning your conference seems to be the #1 priority.
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All-TigerNet [10150]
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nope think you covered it all... : )***
Oct 2, 2016, 7:18 PM
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Orange Blooded [3710]
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Nice write-up!
Oct 2, 2016, 7:24 PM
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nm
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Legend [17341]
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A one loss PAC champion gets in over Louisville ...
Oct 2, 2016, 7:24 PM
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#conferencechampionshipsmatter
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CU Medallion [64621]
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Not if Louisville goes undefeated the rest of the way...
Oct 2, 2016, 10:24 PM
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Sometimes it's not if you lose but when (a/k/a Bama last year). They lost early enough in the season and then played their way back into the discussion.
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Orange Blooded [2455]
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Depends on how the Pac 12 champ plays
Oct 2, 2016, 11:28 PM
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It's awful hard to keep a 1-less conference champ out, period. They've played one extra game, plus a full regular season's worth of wins.
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All-In [25037]
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making a lot of assumptions
Oct 2, 2016, 7:39 PM
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West Virginia is also unbeaten as is Nebraska.
1 loss Wisconsin far from out of it. 1 loss Utah could have a shot as could Colorado crazily enough
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Hall of Famer [20550]
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Re: making a lot of assumptions
Oct 2, 2016, 7:58 PM
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> West Virginia is also unbeaten as is Nebraska.
>
> 1 loss Wisconsin far from out of it. 1 loss Utah
> could have a shot as could Colorado crazily enough
Do you really feel any of those teams are legit, though?
Colorado, maybe. They were taking it to Sleepover Jim and the Gang a couple weeks ago before their #1 QB went down...their backup went 0-7 and the Sleepover Boyz rolled thereafter but Michigan could have easily lost that game.
The rest of 'em, though...most of 'em haven't played anybody and they still don't look wonderful. Wisconsin did beat an LSU team that was seemingly unaware a football can be thrown, and Wisconsin themselves seem barely aware of that development...I tried to watch some of that Michigan/Wisconsin game yesterday and just couldn't, it was making my eyes glaze. Sorry, Da Badgers are not a contender. Utah's well-coached and salty in the trenches with all those Samoan guys they have, but they get very much third-tier leftover California skill talent. West Virginia's schedule is so backloaded they could drop 4-5 games the back half of the season and probably will.
I had forgotten all about Nebraska. They did beat Illinois 31-16 yesterday, and they did (barely, and at home) beat a now-unranked Oregon team wearing their Puddles The Duck Tribute Uniforms a few weeks back, so that's something.
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Legend [17341]
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With FSU stumbling & Cards winning out, could easily argue
Oct 2, 2016, 8:16 PM
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Houston as only high quality win for Louisville.
UVA , Duke, UK will not impress B1G and PAC - Big 12 folks on the playoff committee.
ESPN likes eye candy but a conference champion always ends up with a season ending quality win.
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All-In [25037]
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No not necessarily
Oct 3, 2016, 12:33 PM
[ in reply to Re: making a lot of assumptions ] |
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but crazy things happen in college football every year.
and I actually do think Colorado is for real but I can;t see them winning out. They will drop 1 or 2 more
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Walk-On [140]
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Re: Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 7:41 PM
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Great write up. I could see a situation where Michigan and OSU play a game similar to our game against Louisville. Given that their game is at the end of the year, it would be fresher in the minds of the voters. And with some help from a 2 loss Power 5 Champion, then a 1 loss Michigan or OSU team could get in as well. Although it will be hard to leave out an undefeated Houston team or a 1 loss Louisville team at that point.
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Recruit [80]
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Re: Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 8:04 PM
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Yes I agree about Michigan/OSU game should chaos happen in other conferences. Most assumed that there will be a multiple loss champion from the PAC-12 before the season. Not so sure now with the way Washington has looked. They could run the table. It looks like there is a good chance of a multiple loss champion from the Big-12. If Washington stumbles and we have a 2 loss PAC-12 champion some interesting decisions shape up.
Think of a 1 loss Louisville, 1 loss team from the SEC (Bama, Tenn, A&M), and 1 loss Michigan/OSU from the BIG. Who gets the nod there? In that case could a 2 loss PAC-12 champ - Washington/Stanford jump back in the picture. That would make for some interesting discussion.
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Orange Blooded [2253]
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Re: Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 7:52 PM
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One thing to add is WVU is still unbeaten in the big 12 now and ranked #23, while also getting Baylor, Oklahoma, and TCU at home.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 8:27 PM
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FWIW: I watched Washington dismantle a very talented Stanford team. They looked extremely solid in all phases of the game. I would go so far as to say they are the best looking team I have watched this year. I don't see anyone beating them, and they will be in the final 4 if that happens.
The other 3 will be:
CLEMSON
Winner of OSU/Michigan
Alabama
JMO 
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Hall of Famer [20550]
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Re: Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 8:35 PM
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> FWIW: I watched Washington dismantle a very talented
> Stanford team. They looked extremely solid in all
> phases of the game. I would go so far as to say they
> are the best looking team I have watched this year.
> I don't see anyone beating them, and they will be in
> n the final 4 if that happens.
>
> The other 3 will be:
> CLEMSON
> Winner of OSU/Michigan
> Alabama
>
> JMO
They did look exceptional - the other night - and I agree they could but the Pac-12 is a funky league. They play nine league games, everybody has explosive offenses so everybody you play has a puncher's chance, and their travel schedule is insane...it's like, the entire West Coast, plus Utah, Colorado, and Arizona - and a lot of times they play on weird off nights plus they play a ton of night games and often start games WAY late, and aren't getting back until 4 or 5 in the morning the next day, which wears the kids and staffs out. All that produces some highly volatile, and usually highly random, results, and in turn means you almost always have some teams looking like world-beaters one week and then getting beat by 30 the next week to some mid-tier team.
So Washington could run the table, but smarter money says they won't.
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Orange Blooded [4789]
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Orange Blooded [4789]
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Orange Blooded [3575]
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I'll go out on a limb and say the CFP Committee
Oct 2, 2016, 8:35 PM
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is praying for Baylor to not win Big 12.
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CU Guru [1999]
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Re: Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 9:16 PM
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I don't see how Louisville could get in at this point. It is similar to notre dame last year where they could have ended up at #4 and played us in the playoff although we had already beaten them, which wouldn't be right in my eyes.
What happens if we win out, Louisville wins out, but we lose a close acc championship game? That would almost certainly drop us out if they were ranked right behind us, but they didn't even get to the championship to begin with because we beat them. Too many variables there I think last night was an elimination game.
That being said, I will route for Houston so we don't have to worry about all of that.
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110%er [6500]
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Re: Playoff picture is now very simple
Oct 2, 2016, 11:17 PM
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I am guessing they seeds will be
1. Bama
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. Houston
That would be awesome for us to beet OSU and BAMA both. It would definitely be a national title well earned.
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Orange Blooded [3820]
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Butch Jones fits in with the SEC mold; they plan to keep him
Oct 3, 2016, 12:36 AM
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there was never really any room in the Inn
for a guy like Les
who was never linked to another woman,
wasn't related to his wife before he married her, and
never did a game or post-game coaching show while drunk....
all of these especially hold true in LA.
they have standards there...
I expect LSU to hire the 2nd coming of Mike Leach (aka Art Briles)
to try to make up for lost time...
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