My take on the Heisman (very long)

Dec 13, 2015, 2:53 PM

I'll apologize in advance for the excessive length of this post to those of you who do not like to read anything longer than a couple of sentences on these boards. If you don't like reading long posts, then simply skip over it and move on to the next.

I think David Hood said it best in his front page article stating that it wasn't so much that the Heiman voters got it wrong as it was that the voters were influenced quite significantly by the inundating ESPN coverage of Derrick Henry as the overwhelming favorite. As much as we would all like the voters to take the same approach as David and take the time to research the field of great players in order to make an informed decision, the fact will always be that many of them either don't have the time available or will never put in the time to take this approach (I won't go into why the Heisman voting needs to be reformed in this post).

Clemson in the National Media

If there was every any doubt to the amount of power and influence that the media conglomerate ESPN has gained over the course of the past generation and more specifically the past 10-15 years, it can be easily seen by the fact that Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports both had Deshaun Watson listed as the frontrunner for the Heisman. Even if the vast majority of media outlets (Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, The Sporting News, USA Today, SB Nation, NBC Sports, Grantland, Bleacher Report, etc.) had picked Watson and ESPN picked Henry, I don't think ESPN's influence could have been surmounted. When it comes to the way that sports are digested in terms of television, ESPN nearly has a monopoly when it comes to college football.

I don't want to come off as though I'm bashing Derrick Henry. He's certainly isnt' the worst choice that has ever been made or could have been made, and he seems like a good kid with an extremely dedicated work ethic. We don't have to bash Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey for that matter in order to promote Deshaun Watson.

As much as we all love Clemson and as great as Deshaun Watson has been both this season and in limited action last season, we still haven't reached the status of the blueblood programs like Alabama, Ohio State, USC (the real one), LSU, or Florida State when it comes to the national media.

However, we have made tremendous strides this year in the amount of coverage we have received with our (so far) undefeated season and Dabo's exceptional job of promoting Clemson at every turn. In fact, we have been on the climb nationally since the 2011 national signing day with a tremendous class capped off with the last minute commitments of 5 star talent like Stephone Anthony and Tony Steward during their ESPN commitment ceremonies. That class coupled with the arrival of Chad Morris and his new offense provided the momentum necessary to win our three game gauntlet against Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech and eventually our first ACC Championship in 20 years. The blowout loss to West Virginia in the Orange Bowl set us back quite a bit, but with the arrival of Brent Venables in 2012, our program has been on a steady climb.

As great as the last five years have been, though, the only way to reach the top level of the college football world will be to continue this run for the remainder of the decade and on into the future. Only when we are able to become one of the premier national program in the national media's eyes will we be on equal footing as the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the world in terms of media coverage.

If you want proof that a team can make the ascension from being a fringe top 25 program to being considered one of the elite programs in the country, look no further than LSU. Some of you will argue that their membership in the SEC is as muc h a factor as anything else in their rise to prominence with ESPN and the media, but I would argue that it was Nick Saban's tenure and national title in 2003 followed by Les Miles 2007 championship that gave them the national respect of one of the nation's top programs.

Comparing the 2009 and 2015 Heisman

I would say that it's a testament to how far Clemson football has come since 2009 in that Deshaun made it to New York and finished in third place, whereas C.J. Spiller didn't even earn an invite and finished in sixth despite a tremendous season for the ages.

This year's Heisman run actually reminds me of 2009 in many ways. During both years the award was won by an Alabama running back on a highly ranked Crimson Tide team despite other running backs who were arguably on the same level and elite competition from an exciting, all-purpose dynamo (C.J. Spiller and Christian McCaffrey) and a quarterback leading one of the nation's top teams (Colt McCoy and Deshaun Watson).

Spiller wasn't quite as productive as a running back as McCaffrey, but he did score several more TD's and was the only player in the nation that year to score a TD in every game. Both players were highly touted for their ability to contribute in all aspects of the game and both scored TD's rushing, receiving, passing, and on kick returns. Spiller also scored on a punt return during his senior season, and he also had the additional benefit of the respect for his career as he was on the verge of breaking the all-time NCAA record for all-purpose yards in a career (He ultimately finished 2nd because of Western Michigan's Brandon West who ended up with more APY).

By contrast, McCaffrey broke the record for APY for a single season. He gained many more yards on both kickoff return and rushing than Spiller. He also had many more opportunities than Spiller, as CJ was hampered nearly all year by a significant turf toe injury that limited his playing time. It's worth making a comparison of their stat lines, which I've done below.

Spiller McCaffrey

All-Purpose Yards 2680 3496
Total TD's 20 13

Rushing Yards 1212 1847
Rushing Avg 5.6 5.8
Rushing TD's 12 8

Receiving Yards 503 540
Receiving Avg. 14.0 13.2
Receiving TD's 4 4

Punt Return Yards 210 167
Punt Return Avg. 15.0 17.1
Punt Return TD's 1 0

Kick Return Yards 755 1042
Kick Return Avg. 32.8 28.9
Kick Return TD's 4 1

From the looks of the numbers, both of these guys had remarkable years. I would argue that despite his lower APY yards, Spiller was actually the more explosive and versatile player because of his increased TD's which were typically scored on extremely long breakaway plays. McCaffrey could be argued for because by the numbers he was the better pure running back and was able to be his team's workhorse while continuing to conribute on special teams.

If Spiller were to have this same exact production on Clemson's 2015 team, I think he too would have been a Heisman finalist in New York instead of staying at home for a 6th place finish.

Deshaun Watson's Future Chances

Despite the foreboding and prevalent uphill climb that will undoubtedly be required for Deshaun to be able to bring home the Heisman in his junior season, it is by no means impossible. In fact, it was only a few years ago when Robert Griffin III bucked the trend and was able to win it back in 2011. In the end he was able to gain the support of the ESPN talking heads, which pushed him over the top despite playing for a small market school without much success in recent history at Baylor.

First, perhaps the most difficult hurdle to climb is becoming a household name that even the most casual of college football fans is likely familiar with. Leading our Tigers to a 13-0 record and being a Heisman finalist will certainly give him the amount of name recognition necessary to stay in the Heisman conversation throughout the season from beginning to end.

In order for Deshaun to put himself at the top of the Heisman conversation and overcome and push by ESPN of other candidates, the easiest path would be to simply continue what he has been doing. If his production increases as a junior as it typically does for most college QB's, his numbers should be on the same level as the Heisman seasons of Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, and Marcus Mariota (he's almost there this year, but his TD's are a bit lower than each of the aforementioned guys).

This last thing I would ever want to do is appear to take away from the remarkable season that Watson has had in leading us to 13-0. I think it's been quite clear to anyone who has watched us on a weekly basis that he is both the most valuable player in the country on the best player in the country. With that being said, I I think that the only way to ensure that Watson takes home the Heisman next year instead of being a runner-up again would be for him to put numbers up that are not only impressive, but also separate himself from the rest of the QB's in the nation. For that reason, I'm going to dig a bit deeper into his numbers. Once again, this is not to diminish his incredible season in any way whatsoever, only to compare him to some of the other recent Heisman winning quarterbacks.

First, when Tebow, Bradford, Newton, Griffin III, and Mariota won their trophies, they each ranked either first or second in the country in passer rating. Watson did lead the nation in passer rating as a freshman (albeit in too few attempts to qualify), but this year he fell to twelth nationally. That is still quite impressive, but it is a bit lower than the aforementioned Heisman winners.

Second, in terms of scoring, Watson's 41 total TD's are slightly lower than the recent Heisman QB's. I'll be counting the bowl games for the other players in their totals, so that should be taken into account when comparing them to Deshaun. Tim Tebow scored an incredible 55 touchdowns in 2007, with 32 passing and 23 rushing. The following year Sam Bradford managed to match this remarkable number, finishing the season with 55 TD's, 50 passing and 5 on the ground. In 2010, Cam Newton scored 50 TD's for Auburn, with 30 coming through the air and 20 on the ground. Robert Griffin III finished with the lowest total with 47 total TD's, 37 passing and 10 rushing. Finally, Marcus Mariota managed to outpace all of them with 57 total TD's (likely due to his extra playoff game) passing for 42 and rushing for 15.

As impressive as Watson's 41 total TD's is, it's slightly less than that of the recent Heisman winning quarterbacks. Most importantly, whereas each of the aforemention QB's led the nation in scoring, Watson currently ranks 5th nationally in total TD's.

One final statistic that was likely working against Watson was his number of interceptions. Eleven interceptions isn't terrible by any means, but by comparison the other five guys had totals ranging from 4 to 8 interceptions.

I'm sure at this point if any of you are still reading that many of you are accusing me of unfairly downgrading Watson's accomplishments by cherrypicking statistics. That's the last thing I would want to do. I only mean to show what type of production it has taken in recent years to get the ESPN hype machine to line up behind a specific candidate. I'm hypothesizing that if Watson had led the nation in scoring and passing efficiency, that may have given him the additional voted needed to win the award.

Before I close what has nearly turned into a theses, I want to provide a couple of comparisons that do indeed put Watson on the same level as the other quarterbacks I mentioned. Most importantly of all, Watson has led our Tigers to an unblemished record. I'll admit that in the past I was always criticial of awarding the Heisman to the best player on the best team. However, in this case, I would argue that's it's absolutely warranted because not only is he the best player on the best team, but he's also undoubtedbly the primary reason we have made it to 13-0. His stat line compares favorably overall with any other QB in this season as well.

His ability to produce both through the air and on the ground is vital to how difficult it is for opposing defenses to stop him. It's one thing to call him the best dual threat QB in the nation, but it wouldn't be farfetched to argue that he is the most polished passer in all of college football, which is incredibly impressive in it's own right. But the most important part of his game that makes him so invaluable to our team is his ability to run the ball. I would also argue that he is the best running quarterback in the country. He is third in rushing yards for a QB, but Keenan Reynolds yards are more of a product of his team's option offense. Greg Ward of Houston did outgain Watson on the ground, but that is likely a product of the weak defenses he faced as much or more than it is to superior ability.

In terms of total offense, Watson is ranked slightly behind the previous Heisman QB's. Watson's 4399 total yards put him 4th in the country, compared to Tebow who finished barely made the top 10 with his 4181 yards. Bradford finished 4th as well with 4767 yards. Cam Newton finished 3rd nationally in 2010 with 4327 yards. RGIII was 2nd in 2011 with 4992 yards. Marcus Mariota did finish first with 5224 yards. In other words, Deshaun's production in terms of total offense puts him right in the middle of this group with a couple guys ahead, a couple behind, and likely finishing the season close to Bradford after the Oklahoma game. With two of his typical 380 yard games in the playoffs (very difficult against the level of opponent), he could finish with one of best seasons in history in terms of total offense.

I think Watson could very easily win the Heisman next year. Of course, it's not going to be easy. The easiest path would be to increase his production slightly across the board coupled with another great season from Clemson. Easier said than done I know, but not out of the realm of possibility.

I'll apologize once again for the length of my post. I often get a bit carried away when I want to make a point, and I wanted to give a complete analysis on my point of view.

As a side note, I inadvertantly left out Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston in my comparison of Heisman quarterbacks, but if you compare the numbers, their stats also line up fairly well with all of my arguments except for the lone exception of Manziels quarterback rating.

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My take on the Heisman (very long)

Re: My take on the Heisman (very long)

Great analysis and a good read...

Re: My take on the Heisman (very long)

Re: Good info. Great read. Thanks!***

Re: Good info. Great read. Thanks!***

Re: My take on the Heisman (very long)

Re: My take on the Heisman (very long)

Re: My take on the Heisman (very long)

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