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Hall of Famer [22651]
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My premises on conference expansion.
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Jul 28, 2023, 4:38 PM
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These are the foundation blocks on which I base all my reasoning about the future of college football. I am willing to change those premises if I am given enough evidence to do so.
In any philosophical argument there are premises, logical arguments, and conclusions. If either of the first two are false (or invalid) then the conclusion can be false.
Here are my premises:
1. Several universities (where football is a major product - think SEC, B1G and many other P5 schools) will break their football operations away from the NCAA and will set up some kind of governing system totally independent of NCAA.
2. The number of schools who do this will be in the 32-64 range.
Here are some of my conclusions, but certainly not all of them.
1. FSU and Clemson will somehow manage to be among those universities that break away.
2. The ACC will either dissolve or not be included, as a conference, in that group of universities.
Therefore, I don't really care whether or not the ACC expands and takes SMU, Rice, ECU, UConn, USF, App St, or any other school. Whether they do or do not is irrelevant to FSU and Clemson.
I do think that several things have to happen with B1G and SEC, and to a lesser extent the Big 12, before all the dust settles. Therefore I will continue to spend time (I'm retired, I have plenty of time) monitoring conference realignment. It's fun to me. (It's like a puzzle or a mystery movie. I enjoy trying to solve them.)
So, I'm optimistic over the long range future of FSU and Clemson. I don't know the path that will get them there. I like trying to figure it out.
Message was edited by: bretfsu®
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All-TigerNet [10523]
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Re: My premises on conference expansion.
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Jul 28, 2023, 4:45 PM
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I agree with you. It's bad for the sport that half the teams will be left out, but this is way it looks to be heading.
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Hall of Famer [22651]
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I'm not so sure it's bad.
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Jul 28, 2023, 5:02 PM
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Do I really care who wins between ECU and App St?
It's fun when App St beats Michigan (for example) so we will miss the David vs. Goliath bouts. But, most of the time those end up in 45-3 blowouts.
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Oculus Spirit [94230]
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I don't care either.
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Jul 28, 2023, 5:52 PM
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I think the NIL would probably turn many of the prospective 64 into a pro league. I don't care about that either.
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110%er [5608]
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That's as good an explanation as I've seen
Jul 28, 2023, 5:14 PM
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When the dust settles that's essentially my take as well.
Whether the ACC does this, or that, is of no consequence.
Clemson will inevitably be leaving.
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Orange Blooded [2503]
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Re: My premises on conference expansion.
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Jul 28, 2023, 5:23 PM
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I always suspected we'd get to 4 16-team leagues, so I agree on the 64 schools breaking away.
I still enjoy watching lower level games once in awhile. Who doesn't like MACtion on a Tuesday night?
The FCS playoffs are entertaining too even though I don't follow any of those teams.
Hopefully Clemson and FSU can land somewhere together.
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Hall of Famer [22651]
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I enjoy those games, too.
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Jul 28, 2023, 7:04 PM
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We'll still have them.
We just won't have Clemson vs. Charleston Southern or FSU vs. Jacksonville St. (That last one hurt me to type.)
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Oculus Spirit [94230]
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Have you considered whether or not FSU would agree to...
Jul 28, 2023, 5:51 PM
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amend the GOR to provide for other schools to be included. No matter what the revenue increase per team will be divided equally among the current schools and new members.
If it were me casting the vote I'd tell them to let me out of the GOR and they could include anyone they wanted. Otherwise I'd black ball any school wanting to join. I see expansion as a exit for Clemson and FSU and probably a number of the other schools. Maybe we can get enough to break the GOR with a vote.
Message was edited by: ClemsonTiger1988®
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Hall of Famer [22651]
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ACC will not expand until other schools leave.
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Jul 28, 2023, 7:07 PM
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Why would any team in ACC vote to add another team when it would lower the payout for each team?
ACC is dead man walking.
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Orange Blooded [2368]
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Most definitely.
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Jul 28, 2023, 7:35 PM
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Only a question of when.
Too bad Miami and VaTech (and to some extent FSU) didn’t perform better on the field in the last decade.
As much as we all hate the length of the GOR that was signed, I suspect that it had a lot to do with the weak position the ACC was in.
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All-TigerNet [12550]
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110%er [8563]
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Re: My premises on conference expansion.
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Jul 28, 2023, 5:59 PM
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Bret, I enjoy your posts and often agree with your points. This post if baffling because I don't understand having 18+- sports in the NCAA and 1 out. If "football" schools are not in the NCAA, who will make the rules? Will there be scholarship limits? Will it just be the Wild West and only the strongest survive? I just don't see a path for football without the NCAA especially when schools would be telling their minor sports (baseball, soccer, tennis, golf etc) that there will be no NCAA money to hold championships. Without trying to be politically incorrect, that dog won't hunt for obvious reasons.
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Oculus Spirit [94230]
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I think we're hoping for a new organization which...
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Jul 28, 2023, 6:06 PM
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has fangs and claws to set the rules and enforce them with sanctions which are more than a slap on thw wrist. Either that of legalize those rules many schools break. At least make the playing field level.
The NCAA is a joke.
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All-TigerNet [10664]
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Re: My premises on conference expansion.
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Jul 28, 2023, 6:22 PM
[ in reply to Re: My premises on conference expansion. ] |
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Maybe you haven't heard. The NCAA already does not run the college football playoff. It wouldn't be that hard to institute rules within a super conference wihout out the NCAA involved.
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Hall of Famer [22651]
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I don't know who the "governing body" will be.
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Jul 28, 2023, 7:11 PM
[ in reply to Re: My premises on conference expansion. ] |
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I think the schools will figure out how to govern the new group of football powers.
I can see the schools breaking away from NCAA in football only and remaining in NCAA for all other sports. I can see them breaking away completely.
Heck, I can think way outside the box. I can see a scenario where the football teams will be governed by the NFL.
I don't dare to guess how it will all end up in the details.
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All-TigerNet [10664]
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Re: My premises on conference expansion.
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Jul 28, 2023, 6:18 PM
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Very good Bret. I don't understand why there has not been more movement for the power football schools to break away from the NCAA and for their own "mega league". Let the nCAA still run the basketball and other non-revenue sports. The ACC as a conference for basketball and non-revenue sports would be terrific. It would make more sense rather than the UCLA women's volleyball team traveling to Nerw Jersey to play Rutgers.
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Orange Blooded [2931]
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Re: My premises on conference expansion.
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Jul 28, 2023, 6:37 PM
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The conference brass love their jobs. I believe the new system will at least be arranged initially based on thevexisting SEC and Big10 conferences, because those are the ones that will define the super conferences. Sort of an NFL and AFL structure. They will negotiate the tv contracts and define the new rules and regs. They will likely try to get control over NIL by setting up a salary cap system. It would not help for the super conferences to be cheating against each other with portal tampering and boosters buying players out from each other.
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Orange Blooded [4484]
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It’s only a matter of time before we’re playing in a real conference.
Jul 28, 2023, 7:16 PM
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Hopefully it’s sooner.
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All-American [596]
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Re: My premises on conference expansion.
Jul 28, 2023, 7:18 PM
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Bret, I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but it seems you’ve set out your premises, gone straight to some conclusions, without any logical argument in between. It also seems to me that the premises themselves may need some justification, simply because they aren’t self-evident (at least to me anyway).
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CU Guru [1110]
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Re: My premises on conference expansion.
Jul 28, 2023, 7:32 PM
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Agree. Our current situation just isn't sustainable. I'm so convinced we are leaving that I'm willing to pay to hurry up the process. So far , there's $62,50 in donations to make it happen and end the speculation. Come on Tigernation dig deep and make it happen. Or. We can just sit around and wait and wait and wait.....😉
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All-TigerNet [12550]
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I predict that if Rice is invited,
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Jul 28, 2023, 7:57 PM
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Clemson and FSU will exit the very next day and let the chips fall where they may. Staying in a conference that takes Rice is a slow death that will be much more costly that just biting the bullet and dealing with breaking the GOR.
They should have invited West Virginia long ago, but that ship has sailed as they are now in a GOR also.
Washington and Oregon coming to the ACC makes no sense as both of those would never sign onto the GOR and would leave as soon as they get an invite from the BIG.
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