|
Replies: 11
| visibility 601
|
CU Guru [1203]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 1961
Joined: 10/27/06
|
20-Win Seasons
2
Mar 19, 2024, 12:29 AM
|
|
I see this tossed around as a bar of success. I'm wondering at what point the 20-win season metric kicked in. Some of our seasons only had 20 games. Is it from the 1950-70s era where we played 25? Or the 80s where we added 5-10 more? Assuming teams play 30 games, is that supposed to set the bar at a 66% win pct?
It reminds me of the "greatest team ever" football conversation using 15-0, etc. Good teams that play more games, should get more wins. When you don't play the same amount, win pct has got to be the standard, right? I know the idea is to have a metric that means "we did something great here" but if it's always used in relative comparisons, that's got to be normalized.
Similarly, if "N of these" enters the conversation, term / longevity counts for something.
So, I borrowed some data from sports-reference.com [1] and started playing with it[2].
There's no doubt that BB owns the 20-win seasons count metric. But if you cast that across the total tenure, Purnell grabs the nod for 20-win season pct (~57%).
But the season that caught my eye was Shyatt's 20-win season (20-15) at 57% win pct. That seems low for what I believe the "20-win season" statement is supposed to evoke. To boot, 5 of the 17 seasons are <66% (+/-1%) win pct.
The data has an NCAA Tournament field, so I tossed that in there and noticed that only 40% of those teams with a winning pct lower than 70% even got selected for the Tournament. That inverts to 60% above 65%. So maybe that's it. Feels like the better indicator to me.
So, I regrouped the data a bit by win pct and some thresholds[3].
[1] - https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/clemson/men/
[2] - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS3tGSyy_3W0_XoqZMskSK5fAcCSyTzc_caMDN0VU_M1XgyGkTgfcJnI_G_J5PACyLUpgklcU2YfIKA/pubhtml?gid=1405735438&single=true
[3] - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS3tGSyy_3W0_XoqZMskSK5fAcCSyTzc_caMDN0VU_M1XgyGkTgfcJnI_G_J5PACyLUpgklcU2YfIKA/pubhtml?gid=1558834721&single=true
|
|
|
|
 |
Oculus Spirit [90820]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 45503
Joined: 10/18/09
|
Hey clemson_alum
Mar 19, 2024, 12:37 AM
|
|
your math stats & % stuff are way over my head since I funked remedial math, maybe twice, in HS!
So, I believe you Tiger.
Let Judge know~
|
|
|
|
|
|
CU Guru [1203]
TigerPulse: 97%
Posts: 1961
Joined: 10/27/06
|
Not trying to fight.
Mar 19, 2024, 12:41 AM
|
|
Like lots of stuff, I think this phrase/stat may be a bit watered down.
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [6858]
TigerPulse: 95%
Posts: 6500
Joined: 10/7/07
|
Meaningless. Especially with the acc as bad as it is.***
2
Mar 19, 2024, 6:33 AM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-American [595]
TigerPulse: 77%
Posts: 761
Joined: 1/8/19
|
Re: Meaningless. Especially with the acc as bad as it is.***
Mar 19, 2024, 9:16 AM
|
|
What time are you calling in to Finebaum's show? I want to listen.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Team Captain [488]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 200
Joined: 1/16/22
|
Re: 20-Win Seasons
2
Mar 19, 2024, 6:49 AM
|
|
Back when I first started paying attention to more than just football, mid-80s, 20 win seasons were considered a benchmark of a good season. But many teams only played 28-32 games a year, so 20+ wins was considered impressive for mid-level teams. Elite teams would still win 26+ games.
I think win % is a better indicator of whether or not a team had a good year or not. Like in football, teams play 12-15 games a year, so is 10 wins really the metric of a good season? Are we happier with a 10-4 team than a 9-2? Sticking with basketball, would we be satisfied with a 20-10 record? I'd say most likely not from the posts I read on here.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-Conference [407]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 418
Joined: 4/26/01
|
Re: 20-Win Seasons
Mar 19, 2024, 7:13 AM
|
|
It’s all watered down. Teams used to play fewer games as mentioned above. You used to play everyone in the conference home and away. Prior to 1990 there was no top 25. It was just the top 20. Now more games, more ranked teams, more in the big dance, more watered down.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Legend [16919]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 10775
Joined: 1/25/07
|
Re: 20-Win Seasons
2
Mar 19, 2024, 7:57 AM
|
|
I’ve always equated it to the winning season in major league baseball. Only meaningful if you’re an ascendant program or if you’re trying to maintain a standard while rebuilding. It’s become heavily used on this board because an amalgam of trolls, shills, and useful idiots like to gaslight about Brad Brownell and either willfully ignore or are too stupid to realize that comparing total wins (whether by season or overall) of a coach who has been here more than double the average length of his predecessors is garbage.
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [5395]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 3160
Joined: 9/25/18
|
Re: 20-Win Seasons
1
Mar 19, 2024, 8:19 AM
|
|
Thank you so much for your work. I agree that not all 20 wins seasons are the same. I like to focus on final season rankings. For every sport, I expect to see Clemson ranked in the final top 25. If a sport does not end up there, then Neff needs to be asking that coach why. IPTAY members need to be provided an annual report of what each coach is requesting to be competitive and whether or not Clemson provided the requested items with explanations.
|
|
|
|
|
|
110%er [8003]
TigerPulse: 90%
Posts: 10459
Joined: 11/28/03
|
Re: 20-Win Seasons
Mar 19, 2024, 8:46 AM
|
|
Thank you so much for your work. I agree that not all 20 wins seasons are the same. I like to focus on final season rankings. For every sport, I expect to see Clemson ranked in the final top 25. If a sport does not end up there, then Neff needs to be asking that coach why. IPTAY members need to be provided an annual report of what each coach is requesting to be competitive and whether or not Clemson provided the requested items with explanations.
Very solid post! Finishing in the top 25 is certainly a worthy goal then identifying what is required to reach the goal makes a ton of sense.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hall of Famer [23112]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 19813
Joined: 1/15/11
|
It's a lot like 6 wins still being the threshold in Football after
Mar 19, 2024, 9:40 AM
|
|
we went to 12 game seasons.
Like Football in the time of West,. IT'S TIME for BB Coach that has AN OFFENSE.
|
|
|
|
|
|
All-TigerNet [13959]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 7866
Joined: 11/30/98
|
Re: 20-Win Seasons
Mar 19, 2024, 10:09 AM
|
|
I use a much simpler measure. What is the success in the acct? Ever win the acct? What is the success in the ncaat? ever win it? That takes the 20 win argument away.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replies: 11
| visibility 601
|
|
|
50
