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CU Guru [1703]
TigerPulse: 100%
Posts: 934
Joined: 7/1/03
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And the anxiety begins for tonight/weekend
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Mar 9, 2023, 8:57 AM
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Lucie has the ball spotted. Cmon Charlie Brownell
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Letterman [270]
TigerPulse: 91%
Posts: 113
Joined: 11/30/98
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Re: And the anxiety begins for tonight/weekend
Mar 9, 2023, 9:09 AM
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No kidding. Man I hope the team shows up with the right mindset tonight. GUARD THE BEHEMOTH DOWN LOW!!
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All-In [26635]
TigerPulse: 100%
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Joined: 9/2/02
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On the bright side, the team is usually home for dinner
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Mar 9, 2023, 9:23 AM
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by Tuesday evening ... in years past.
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CU Guru [1404]
TigerPulse: 82%
Posts: 1919
Joined: 4/19/05
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Re: And the anxiety begins for tonight/weekend
Mar 9, 2023, 11:33 AM
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Anxiety for numerous reasons...
1. Is it hard to beat a team 3x in a season?
Well Five Thirty Eight looked at it last year:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-really-is-harder-to-beat-a-team-the-third-time-in-mens-college-basketball/
"But when two evenly matched teams meet for a third time in the same season, their previous results matter. When the teams split their first two games, the better team won 57.3 percent of the time; when the better team lost the previous two meetings, that team avenged those defeats at a 56.7 percent clip. But when the better team won both previous matchups, the third was a true toss-up — the better teams won only about 49.3 percent of the time."
Anxious? Yes. Clemson won by 14 and 25. So they should be seen as better team.
With an edge of at least 6 but less than 9 points in Pomeroy’s ratings, the better teams won 72.5 percent of the time overall, 79.6 percent after a split and 84.8 percent after two losses. After that, the sample starts to thin — there aren’t many cases of teams being swept in the regular season by significantly inferior opponents.
By the same token, there aren’t many teams with a strong track record of being swept in the regular season and then reversing those results in the postseason.
Anxious Meter? Average.
2. 3PT Shooting % for both teams... and Clemson's 3PT Defense
This will be tale of the game. If NC State shoots 40% or better from 3PT, could be a hard, bad night. If they shoot 35% or better, may be a close game.
Keep them under 30% from 3PT, Clemson has better chance.
Clemson needs to shoot it's average (36.9%) at least, but would be best if it shoots 2% or better than average in both halves.
Anxious Meter? Above Average, but the defense should travel.
I hope NC State's shooting comes back towards the team averages because they were way above it vs VaTech.
3. The long layoff - 5 days from Sunday to Thursday
During the season, how did Clemson do after 5+ days between games:
- Dec 21 after a win over GT, played at home 9 days later vs. NC State - Won and shot well
- Feb 4 after a loss to Miami, played 7 days later @UNC, blown out. Shot 7 of 20 from 30 and almost let UNC shoot 50% from 3 (15 of 33)
So hopefully, CBB and Clemson learned their lesson of playing better after a break. Early in the season, it did not matter. Late in season, when pressure was on, they played and shot poorly.
Anxious Meter? Below Average. It is really only like one day extra rest from normal season where they play every 3 or 4 days.
4. Back to Back Games for NC State
Anxious Meter? Below Average.
This should benefit Clemson. Now, I was hoping for a closer fight of game between VATech and NC State. Tire that BIG FELLA out, but NC State only played him 16 minutes.
3 players played 30+ minutes. 1 reserve played 24 minutes, and 1 played 19. NC State really only played 7 players.
I bet Greg Gantt is less than 50/50 that he plays tonight. He injured his knee. He is a starter for them. They do not lose points with Gantt, but do lose energy and defense.
MY PREDICTION:
If Clemson shoots at or better than its 3PT% Avg for the entire game, and goes to the FT line 18+ times, Clemson wins by 7 to 9 points.
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