Five biggest games in Clemson's 2022 title path |
Late last week brought us under the 100-day mark to the Clemson football season's start, and after the travails of that 2021 campaign, it couldn’t come any sooner.
This one doesn’t start off with the bang of a mega-matchup like Georgia was in Charlotte last year, but the overall schedule will bring its challenges. College Football Playoff trips had become awfully familiar lately for the Tigers, but the 10-3 record and season finale in the Cheez-It Bowl was only the second bowl game not among the current New Year’s Six postseason lineup from 2011-on. Preseason projections vary for this edition of the Tigers, but there are quite a few that have Clemson returning to the top of the ACC and making the Playoff. ESPN’s metrics give the Tigers the fourth-highest chance to make the CFP (59%), with some distance to the next few teams in Texas (21%), Notre Dame (17.6%) and Michigan (14.8%). Clemson’s season goals start with winning the Labor Day opener in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium against Georgia Tech, but let’s take a look at the key games in a potential ACC title and Playoff path. 2021 record: 6-7 (4-4 ACC) Returning production % (ESPN): 79% (12th nationally). ESPN SP+FPI preseason ranks (margin of rating to Clemson): 30th (8)/36th (15.5). Highest-rated transfer(s): Former Arizona State DL Jermayne Lole (6-2 305; 11 sacks and 122 tackles over three seasons), former Central Arkansas WR Tyler Hudson (6-2 195; 3,049 receiving yards/27 TDs over three seasons), former Tennessee RB Tiyon Evans (5-11 220; 81 rushes for 525 yards and 5 TDs; four catches for 74 yards and a TD last season). 2022 247Sports Composite class rank: 54th. Analysis: There are a few different candidates for this spot, with Louisville a fourth November game in the mix. The transfer-heavy South Carolina Gamecocks close the regular season at Clemson, but the jury is still out on if former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler will succeed in Columbia -- and a 30-0 result last year showed a glaring gap still between the programs. The Tigers' first true road game at Wake Forest in week four is another of note, but without any major transfers and a middling run through the recruiting rankings, Dave Clawson’s Deacs have something to prove in a series with Clemson where they’ve lost by an average of 39 points over the last four games. That brings us to the Cardinals, which lost a receiver to Alabama in the transfer portal but rank 14th overall according to 247Sports’ transfer portal tracker. They are still armed with a dynamic quarterback in Malik Cunningham, who battled through injury in last year’s game against Clemson and took the Cards to within two yards at Cardinal Stadium of earning Louisville’s first-ever win over the Tigers. They rank in the top-tier of returning production nationally with a potentially prolific offense (No. 14 projected group on ESPN), and where the game sits for Clemson is of note as well. The Tigers have a major primetime matchup at Notre Dame the week before and there’s trap potential here. Five biggest games in Clemson's title path
5) Nov. 12 vs. Louisville
4) Oct. 15 at Florida State
2021 record: 5-7 (4-4 ACC)
Returning production % (ESPN): 78% (17th nationally).
ESPN SP+/FPI preseason ranks (margin of rating to Clemson): 28th (7.9)/31st (13.8).
Highest-rated transfer(s): Former Oregon RB Trey Benson (6-0 209; 22 rushing yards, 1 TD in 2021), former Albany DE Jared Verse (6-4 247; CAA def. rookie of the year; 10 TFL, four sacks, 22 tackles, forced fumble), former Oregon WR Mycah Pittman (5-11 205; 38 catches for 547 yards, 2 TDs over three seasons).
2022 247Sports Composite class rank: 21st.
Analysis: After a surprisingly close call last year in Death Valley, Clemson heads back to Tallahassee in hopes of actually playing a football game there for the first time since 2018.
The Seminoles held a lead deep in the fourth quarter after a defensive score before Will Shipley broke through for a 21-yard rushing touchdown with under three minutes left.
FSU is another ACC team that is a returning QB, with Jordan Travis, who passed for a couple scores at Clemson last year, and he has some new teammates via a 13th-ranked transfer class to this point (247Sports). Overall, the Seminoles rank in the top-20 in returning production to a group with top-50 projected SP+ ranks on offense (45) and defense (15).
The game sits in the middle of October for Clemson as a seventh-straight contest and a third on the road in four games (after a trip to Boston College the week before).
3) Nov. 19 vs. Miami
2021 record: 7-5 (5-3 ACC)
Returning production % (ESPN): 73% (28th nationally).
ESPN SP+/FPI preseason ranks (margin of rating to Clemson): 14th (4.7)/18th (10.9).
Highest-rated transfer(s): Former WVU DL Akheem Mesidor (6-2 272; 70 tackles and 9.5 sacks over two seasons), former UCLA LB Mitchell Agude (6-4 245; 79 tackles and 4.5 sacks over two seasons), former WVU CB Daryl Porter Jr. (46 tackles, 1 INT, 5 PBUs in 2021), former Ole Miss RB Henry Parrish Jr. (5-10 190; 816 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 232 rushing yards over two seasons).
2022 247Sports Composite class rank: 16th.
Analysis: The Tigers wrap the 2022 conference slate with Miami, which brings former Clemson receiver Frank Ladson and what should be a pretty stout Hurricanes offense overall to town.
Rising sophomore Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke had the best 10-game stretch this side of NFL first-round pick Kenny Pickett, finishing second only in the ACC to Pickett for QB rating (160.10) with 26 touchdowns to six interceptions averaging a league-best nine yards per attempt.
The Hurricanes are projected a top-25 offense (21) and defense (23) by ESPN’s SP+ made some key additions on both sides of the ball with a 12th-ranked transfer portal class. Miami also signed the third-best 2022 signing class under new coach Mario Cristobal.
The last time Miami came to Clemson was a 2020 pandemic-addition to the slate, where a top-10-ranked Hurricanes team was stifled in a 42-17 Tigers win. Has the NIL and transfer portal era closed that gap any in two years? Probably not enough, but this could be a late-season resume builder for the Tigers in a tough final month of the season.
2) Oct. 1 vs. NC State
2021 record: 9-3 (6-2).
Returning production % (ESPN): 82% (8th nationally).
ESPN SP+/FPI preseason ranks (margin of rating to Clemson): 18th (5.4)/26th (13.5).
Highest-rated transfer(s): Former Maryland WR Darryl Jones (6-3 200; 49 catches for 705 yards, 2 TDs over four seasons).
2022 247Sports Composite class rank: 64th.
Analysis: NC State coach Dave Doeren declared the ended of his program’s curse after a 27-21 double overtime win over Clemson in Raleigh last year, before regressing to a typical nine-win season ceiling and short a division crown.
If there’s a season the Wolfpack are going to break through, the numbers say it’s 2022 with a league-best 17 starters returning, including 10 on defense, ranking top-10 nationally in returning production.
That path runs through Memorial Stadium, however, where their last meeting was a 41-7 loss in another nine-win season. The SP+ metric sees NC State as essentially a touchdown underdog this October with Wolfpack boasting a top-50 offense (42) and a top-10 defense (10).
Doeren recently called his QB Devin Leary “the best in the country,” coming off completing 65.7% of his throws for 3,433 yards with 35 touchdowns to five interceptions last season. He excelled against the Tigers in their double OT win with a 72.7 completion rate for 238 yards and four touchdowns to no interceptions. He will have to perform better in the road situation here, where four of those five picks came with a 62.1 completion rate.
This is the second of a five-game Clemson divisional stretch that could have the ACC Championship participant settled one way or another by October, sandwiched between trips to Wake Forest and Boston College.
1) Nov. 5 at Notre Dame
2021 record: 11-2.
Returning production % (ESPN): 66% (54th)
ESPN SP+/FPI preseason ranks (margin of rating to Clemson): 7th (0.7)/5th (5.7).
Highest-rated transfer(s): Former Northwestern safety Brandon Joseph (6-1 192; 135 tackles, nine interceptions, six PBUs over three seasons).
2022 247Sports Composite class rank: 7th.
Analysis: Clemson will have a good idea of what to expect from Notre Dame right out of the gates when the Fighting Irish travel to Ohio State on the opening weekend. Notre Dame is the only team on the Tigers’ schedule to out-recruit them by the 247Sports Team Composite rankings (7th versus Clemson’s 10th).
Overall, however, Clemson was judged to have a much more talented roster last year and the Fighting Irish didn’t go as heavy as their peers into the transfer portal.
They will be built around a top-10 projected defense (8th by SP+) under former defensive coordinator and now coach Marcus Freeman, who did add a potential impact transfer from Northwestern in safety Brandon Joseph.
In season projections, the Tigers and Irish are right in the same neighborhood, with ESPN’s advanced metrics having Clemson then Notre Dame with both the FPI (4th and 5th) and SP+ (6th and 7th).
Clemson figures to be in a better position from a roster standpoint heading to South Bend, after Trevor Lawrence was diagnosed with COVID the week before the last time and had to miss the 47-40 double OT thriller win for Notre Dame in 2020. The question, coming off of a bye week, is whether DJ Uiagalelei will be commanding the Clemson offense by early November after a standout performance the last time he faced the Irish:
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