Clemson vs. Miami Prediction: Swinney chases record as Tigers head to land of Hurricanes

Clemson heads to Miami seeking a winning record in ACC action this season.

by David Hood - Senior Writer - Fri Oct 20 11:30:14 GMT-04:00 2023

One team keeps its flickering hopes alive for an appearance in the ACC Championship Game; the other is left to lick its wounds.

Clemson travels to Miami on Saturday in a battle of teams with two conference losses. Mathematically, a two-loss team is still alive. Three losses? Forget about it. It all happens in primetime in Miami Gardens at Hard Rock Stadium.

CLEMSON (4-2, 2-2 ACC) at MIAMI (FLA.) (4-2, 0-2 ACC)

WHEN: SATURDAY, OCT. 21, 8 P.M. ET
WHERE: HARD ROCK STADIUM (64,767), MIAMI GARDENS, FLA.
TELEVISION: ACC Network (Wes Durham, Tim Hasselbeck, Taylor Tannebaum)
RADIO: Clemson Athletic Network (Don Munson, Tim Bourret, Reggie Merriweather)
SATELLITE RADIO: SiriusXM 108 or 202

NOTABLE

*Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney is attempting to earn his 166th career win to pass College Football Hall of Famer Frank Howard (165 from 1940-69) for sole possession of the Clemson record for career head coaching wins. Swinney is also attempting to match the career win total of College Football Hall of Famer Red Blaik, who won 166 games at Dartmouth and Army from 1934-58. Swinney's .801 win percentage is already ahead of Blaik's .759.

*Clemson is attempting to improve to 44-20 in games following regular season open dates in the ACC era (since 1953). Clemson has won 14 of its last 16 regular season games following open weeks.

*Clemson is attempting to improve to 21-11 in games at NFL stadiums under Dabo Swinney. A win would improve Clemson to 18-7 at NFL stadiums since 2015.

*Clemson is attempting to add to its 35 road wins since 2015, the most road wins by any program in the nation in that span.

*Clemson is attempting to improve to 36-6 in true road games since 2015.

*Clemson is attempting to improve to 70-7 against ACC opponents (including postseason play) since the start of the 2015 season.

THE MATCHUP

WHAT CLEMSON NEEDS TO DO WHEN IT HAS THE BALL

Let’s start with Clemson’s offensive players. Cade Klubnik has passed for 1,370 yards while completing 65.2% of his throws (137-of-210), with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions (228.3 yards per game). He's also rushed 56 times for 120 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 20 yards per game.

Will Shipley has taken 91 carries for a team-leading 450 rushing yards (75 yards per game) while scoring three touchdowns. He's also caught 18 passes for 100 yards (16.7 receiving yards per game) with two touchdowns through the air.

Beaux Collins has 24 catches and paces his team with 339 receiving yards (56.5 ypg) while scoring two touchdowns. Tyler Brown has hauled in 23 catches for 336 yards (56 yards per game) and two touchdowns.

Swinney points to the Tigers’ turnovers as the biggest difference in the two losses, and they have played a major part. But while Clemson’s offense has put up yards and first downs, it’s failed miserably in the red zone. Offensive coordinator Garrett Riley told us the other day that he wants to score a touchdown on two out of every three redzone possessions. That’s 67%. The Tigers barely get that production in points scored, sitting 124th nationally in redzone production (23-of-33, 69.7%). They’ve scored 19 touchdowns (57.58%), and missed field goals have figured into the lack of production.

Clemson should be able to move the ball on Miami, especially if they win the turnover margin. But can they score inside the 20?

WHAT CLEMSON HAS TO DO WHEN MIAMI HAS THE BALL

Saturday's contest will be a matchup of the ACC's top total defense (Clemson, 261.8 yards allowed per game) and its top total offense (Miami, 501.8 yards gained per game). Each unit ranks in the Top 10 nationally, as the Tigers stand fifth in the FBS in total defense, while the Hurricanes' offensive production ranks seventh. Clemson has continued its stout run defense, a metric in which Clemson has ranked in the Top 25 nationally every year since 2014, but Clemson's largest improvement defensively in 2023 has come through the air, where the Tigers are allowing 56.2 fewer yards per game and a 21.8 drop in opponent passer rating from a season ago. Clemson ranked 76th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game in 2022 but ranks 14th in that category this season.

The key to this matchup is Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. He’s dangerous when he’s on, but he also tends to commit the big turnover. He also took a shot to his leg late in the loss to North Carolina last week, and he will probably be limited. If the Tigers take away his scramble ability and control the run game, they should be able to keep Van Dyke in check.

However, the Tigers’ linebackers have to be better in coverage. Miami slot receiver Xavier Restrepo has 47 receptions, and if he gets matched up on a backer, he can take it to the house.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

It’s hard to figure both of these teams. But Miami looks like a tired and beat up squad, and the Tigers are getting healthy at the right time, with receiver Antonio Williams and cornerback Nate Wiggins both expected back after missing the last few weeks. The open date came at a good time, and the Tigers were working on Miami over the last two weeks.

I feel Miami will be desperate, which will keep them in the game. But the Tigers had some time to install a few wrinkles (maybe they will shock the world and throw it deep?) The defense holds on while the offense finds its groove, and the offense puts it away in the second half.

FINAL SCORE: CLEMSON 31, MIAMI 20

TigerNet picks

David Hood - TigerNet senior writer - 31-20 Clemson
Mickey Plyler - The Roar 105.5 morning show host - 31-21 Clemson
Nikki Hood - Staff writer - 30-17 Clemson
Brandon Rink - Associate editor - 24-20 Clemson
Tony Crumpton - Associate editor - 28-20 Clemson
Pigskin Prophet - 27-17 Clemson
Ryan Kantor - Contributing Writer - 24-17 Clemson
Ariana Pensy - TigerNet Intern - 28-24 Clemson
Merrell Mann - Photographer - 31-17 Clemson

PREDICTION TRACKER

Game	Actual	David Hood	Plyler	Nikki Hood	Rink	Crumpton	Prophet	Kantor	Pensy	Mann
Duke	28-7 DU	38-20 CU	31-17 CU	45-17 CU	31-16 CU	34-20 CU	37-17 CU	41-17 CU	35-10 CU	35-13 CU	-
CSU	66-17 CU	56-3 CU	56-0 CU	42-10 CU	52-3 CU	45-6 CU	60-13 CU	41-10 CU	21-14 CU	45-3 CU	-
FAU	48-14 CU	38-10 CU	49-14 CU	49-17 CU	42-17 CU	42-10 CU	44-3 CU	41-10 CU	45-14 CU	42-14 CU	-
FSU	31-24 FSU	30-24 FSU	31-30 CU	28-20 FSU	30-28 FSU	28-27 CU	30-27 CU	31-28 FSU	37-34 FSU	29-28 CU	-
SU	31-14 CU	30-20 CU	34-17 CU	35-17 CU	28-23 CU	31-21 CU	34-23 CU	28-17 CU	35-31 CU	28-24 CU	-
WF	17-12 CU	37-13 CU	47-17 CU	38-10 CU	38-16 CU	42-13 CU	45-9 CU	35-10 CU	35-14 CU	38-17 CU	-
Points	-	7	8	5	5	4	6	9	7	4

* Points: 3 pts for best correct prediction of the week (tiebreaker is Clemson score), 2 pts for picking score exactly, 1 pt for picking the correct winner