Advanced Outlook: No. 20 UNC at Clemson projections

Cade Klubnik took hold of the Clemson starting QB job with his stepping in to lead the Tigers over UNC in last year's ACC Championship Game.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Nov 15 13:56:03 GMT-04:00 2023

Clemson looks to sustain its momentum and clinch a winning regular season when No. 20 North Carolina comes to town on Saturday.

Taking a closer look at how Clemson and North Carolina compare:

Efficiency rankings

Team overall: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (20): 37 | 14 | 74

UNC SP+ ranks (18): 6 | 57 | 43

CU FEI ranks (23): 40 | 5 | 113

UNC FEI ranks (24): 10 | 75 | 74

CU FPI ranks (20): 58 | 5 | 128

UNC FPI ranks (24): 11 | 75 | 96

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UNC’s elite-level offense carries its rankings and has offset a lacking defense at times, with the SP+ metric the one overall rating we track that has UNC (18) ahead of Clemson (20).

One reason is that SP+ isn’t quite as down on the Tar Heel defense (57) and has UNC with the No. 6 offense nationally. For comparison, simply using yards per game allowed (total defense) has the Tar Heels at 82nd nationally, with a particularly bad day at Georgia Tech in a loss factoring in those numbers (635 yards/8.1 yards per play/46 points).

Clemson’s defense holds No. 5 rankings in two of the three outlets after keeping a second ACC opponent under four yards per play (3.9 vs. Georgia Tech; 3.7 for Wake Forest earlier this season), and much of that did not come until the game was well in hand and Tiger backups getting experience.

After being put in some bad situations at points, Clemson’s red zone defense has improved from a 62.5% TD rate in the first four games to 50% in the last six (and was put in a bad spot for one of the two touchdowns last Saturday after an errant fake punt call). The Tigers rank 10th in red zone attempts allowed this season (2.4 per game; 1.3 TDs allowed), while North Carolina is 5th in red zone tries offensively (5.1 per game) but places 58th in red zone TD rate (62.8; 3.2 red zone TDs a game; 75th in conference play at 57.6%).

When it comes to big plays, Clemson is in the Top 30 in plays of 10+, 20+, 30+, 40+ and 50+ allowed, while North Carolina is Top 6 nationally in plays of 20+, 30+, 40+ and 50+ yards.

Three North Carolina players to watch

1. QB Drake Maye

Maye is considered the No. 2 QB prospect in the 2024 NFL draft, and he grades fifth on PFF nationally as a passer (91.1) and sixth overall among QBs (91.6).

He is coming off one of his better efforts this season in the double OT win over Duke, with an 84 grade, 342 passing yards and a 65.1 completion rate with eight yards per pass. By PFF's estimate, he had five big-time throws in 43 passes. Maye also rushed for two touchdowns in the game.

Under pressure, Maye has a solid 65 grade with a 9% big-time throw rate and 6.5 yards per attempt (for reference, Cade Klubnik has a 3.9% BTT rate in the same situation; 4.6 YPA), and with a clean pocket, Maye is elite (93.8 grade) with a 74.5 completion rate, 9.1 yards per pass and 26 touchdowns to three interceptions.

His third-worst PFF grade of last season came versus Clemson (66.9) with only 6.4 yards per attempt and two interceptions and no touchdown passes in the 39-10 ACC Championship defeat. He was under pressure on 44.7% of his dropbacks and averaged 3.3 yards per pass with a 38.3 grade in that situation. He was under pressure on 36.8% of his dropbacks last year overall, compared to 27.8% of his dropbacks this year.

2. RB Omarion Hampton

Hampton leads the ACC and ranks second in the Power 5 in PFF run grade for running backs (92.3). He’s topped 112 rushing yards in five consecutive games – hitting 151.4 yards a game with five touchdowns in that stretch. Hampton was also targeted nine times in the win over Duke with 47 receiving yards.

He leads the nation in yards after contact (830) with 51 missed tackles forced in 206 rushes.

3. ED Kaimon Rucker

Rucker (6-2 265) is in the Top 10 for Power 5 edge defenders in pass-rush grade (89.7) with a group-leading 54 pressures (8 sacks, 37 hurries, 9 QB hits).

Kaimon Rucker (UNC)
Shorter than your average edge defender at only 6'1 and he doesn't have elite length, but he has a knack for getting after the QB. His 48 pressures are tied for 2nd in college football pic.twitter.com/HFIWaBVBKo
— Chicago Football Connection (@CFCBears) November 8, 2023

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

According to PFF, Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins has been put in man coverage in 53.2% of his coverage snaps, and he’s been targeted just 12 of 110 snaps there with six catches allowed for 44 yards, allowing one touchdown and tallying one pass breakup. In zone coverage, Wiggins has allowed just ten receiving yards over three catches with no touchdowns in nine targets.

Against UNC last year, he posted his best grade of the season (81.8) with two pass breakups and a 98-yard pick-six. Wiggins allowed just three catches for 18 yards in eight targets his way.

Odds

Clemson -6.5; 58.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Clemson 29-28 (53% Clemson win projection)

FEI: Clemson 28-26 (57.3% Clemson win projection)

NORTH CAROLINA @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/F1qLZCYK8M
— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 16, 2023

ESPN FPI: 60.6% Clemson projection

Analysis: Clemson’s defense is playing very well even with injuries in the mix over the course of the year. They limited another prolific offense last week to well below its season averages, and while I wouldn’t expect the same level of dominance versus Maye (or even the kind of success against him in Charlotte last year), the Tigers are playing well enough as a unit to cover the TD spread. Pick: Clemson -6.5 (2-8 on ATS picks, 6-4 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story).