Bracketology: Where Clemson stands going into conference tournaments |
The ACC Tournament starts in Greensboro Tuesday and Clemson won’t see any action until the last game on Thursday (9:30 p.m. ET) thanks to a double-bye pass to the quarterfinals.
Normally, a third-place finish within a league as historically good as the ACC would have a team like Clemson primed for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament and playing to improve that seeding, but thanks to a number of factors, you won’t find Brad Brownell’s Tigers on nearly any projected brackets going into the final week of conference tournaments and Sunday’s NCAA selections (6 p.m./CBS). How much work do the Tigers have to do? According to both ESPN and Sporting News – two of the more friendly brackets nationally to the Tigers currently, Clemson is among the ‘Next Four Out’ at either seven or eight places from taking one of the 36 at-large spots in the NCAA Tournament. With the bubble likely to shrink with conference tournament upsets this week, those projections, if correct, mean the Tigers probably need an ACC Tournament finals appearance on Saturday to feel anything close to confident come Sunday's committee call (and if they make it to Saturday, why not win the whole thing for the first time in program history and clinch a spot?). The weak points in Clemson’s resume continue to be non-conference strength of schedule (336) and two losses to NET Quadrant 4 teams (four losses to Q3 and Q4 teams combined). As we’ve addressed in bracketology reports previously, the 14-6 ACC record and third-place standing are nice, but that has appeared nowhere on an NCAA team sheet in recent years – except where those wins fall within the NET quadrants – and that is true for the at-large competitors that have sub-.500 conference records and lower standings as well. Comparing to some at-large foes, ESPN’s ‘Last Four In’ has Mississippi State, Utah State, Rutgers and Nevada. Here’s a profile on Clemson: Clemson NCAA Tournament profile Record: 22-9 KPI: 56 SOR (Strength of record): 60 BPI: 56 KenPom: 70 Sagarin: 47 NET: 61 Record vs. NET Q1: 4-3 (win over No. 25 Duke at home, and No. 40 NC State, No. 57 Pitt and No. 68 Virginia Tech on the road) Q4 losses: 2 (in neutral site game with No. 268 Loyola-Chicago and on the road at No. 311 Louisville) NET SOS: 107 NON-CON SOS: 336 Road record: 5-6 Taking a look at the competitors by ESPN’s estimation: Nevada NCAA Tournament profile Record: 21-9 KPI: 28 SOR (Strength of record): 48 BPI: 67 KenPom: 39 Sagarin: 78 NET: 36 Record vs. NET Q1: 4-5 (Wins over No. 16 SDSU at home, No. 21 Utah State at home, No. 27 Boise State at home, No. 50 New Mexico on the road). Q4 losses: 0 NET SOS: 66 NON-CON SOS: 130 Road record: 6-7 Analysis: The metrics are all over the board on the Wolf Pack, but they do have as many Q1 wins as Clemson and no Q4 losses, with stronger strength of schedule rankings. They begin play in the Mountain West tournament on Thursday versus San Jose State and could face SDSU again come Friday for another Q1 shot. Mississippi State NCAA Tournament profile Record: 20-11 KPI: 54 SOR (Strength of record): 47 BPI: 40 KenPom: 45 Sagarin: 46 NET: 46 Record vs. NET Q1: 4-7 (Wins over No. 13 Marquette at neutral site, No. 18 Arkansas on the road, No. 23 Texas A&M at home and No. 28 TCU at home). Q4 losses: 0 NET SOS: 43 NON-CON SOS: 231 Road record: 4-6 Analysis: Metrics are consistently top-50 on the Bulldogs and they have no Q4 losses. The non-conference strength of schedule is among the lower with Clemson for at-large teams (but still an over 100-spot gap to the Tigers). Mississippi State begins play in the SEC Tournament on Thursday against a higher-seeded Florida team. If they win, Alabama awaits them on Friday. Utah State NCAA Tournament profile Record: 23-7 KPI: 14 SOR (Strength of record): 41 BPI: 49 KenPom: 23 Sagarin: 44 NET: 21 Record vs. NET Q1: 1-4 (Win over No. 27 Boise State). Q4 losses: 2 (No. 192 Weber State at home and No. 210 SMU at a neutral site) NET SOS: 80 NON-CON SOS: 199 Road record: 6-4 Analysis: The Aggies are a NET darling, which you see if you go a layer deeper than Q1, where they are 8-1 against Q2 opponents with four of those wins coming in out of conference play. Comparatively, Clemson is a combined 7-5 against Q1/Q2 to Utah State’s 9-5 mark. They also start action in the Mountain West tournament on Thursday facing the winner between New Mexico and Wyoming. Rutgers NCAA Tournament profile Record: 18-13 KPI: 53 SOR (Strength of record): 63 BPI: 27 KenPom: 42 Sagarin: 43 NET: 41 Record vs. NET Q1: 5-6 (Wins over No. 5 Purdue away, No. 38 Northwestern away, No. 26 Maryland at home, No. 29 Indiana at home and No. 56 Penn State away). Q4 losses: 0 NET SOS: 44 NON-CON SOS: 308 Road record: 4-7 Analysis: Rutgers is another team fighting a bad non-conference slate (308), but they do have five Q1 wins and a top-50 overall strength of schedule. The Scarlet Knights take on another bubble team in Michigan Thursday and would face Purdue again with a win. Sporting News has Utah State and Nevada out, with Oklahoma State, Penn State (a last four byes team for ESPN) and Wisconsin among the last four in. Wisconsin NCAA Tournament profile Record: 17-13 KPI: 51 SOR (Strength of record): 46 BPI: 69 KenPom: 72 Sagarin: 53 NET: 78 Record vs. NET Q1: 6-7 (Wins over No. 13 Marquette away, No. 37 Iowa away, No. 26 Maryland at home, No. 45 Southern Cal neutral, No. 56 Penn State away and No. 63 Ohio State away). Q4 losses: 0 NET SOS: 13 NON-CON SOS: 71 Road record: 5-6 Analysis: The Badgers are penalized in the NET by having 13 losses but they do have a strong strength of schedule and 11 wins over Q1/Q2 teams. In Big Ten tourney action, Wisconsin plays Wednesday versus Ohio State and would play Iowa with a win. Oklahoma State NCAA Tournament profile Record: 17-14 KPI: 52 SOR (Strength of record): 45 BPI: 34 KenPom: 40 Sagarin: 40 NET: 42 Record vs. NET Q1: 6-11 (Wins over No. 19 Iowa State away, No. 19 Iowa State at home, No. 24 West Virginia at home, No. 28 TCU at home, No. 55 Texas Tech away and No. 65 Oklahoma away). Q4 losses: 0 NET SOS: 8 NON-CON SOS: 190 Road record: 4-7 Analysis: The sheer number of Q1 games stand out and a top-10 strength of schedule, and the Cowboys have a decent NET (42) for the overall record. Oklahoma State opens Big 12 tournament action versus rival Oklahoma on Wednesday and lines up with Texas next with a win. Penn State NCAA Tournament profile Record: 19-12 KPI: 46 SOR (Strength of record): 43 BPI: 53 KenPom: 50 Sagarin: 48 NET: 56 Record vs. NET Q1: 5-6 (Wins over No. 33 Illinois away, No. 38 Northwestern away, No. 26 Maryland home, No. 29 Indiana home, No. 63 Ohio State away). Q4 losses: 0 NET SOS: 33 NON-CON SOS: 273 Road record: 4-7 Analysis: One of those Q1 losses is versus Clemson in Littlejohn, a 101-94 decision in overtime from late November. They don't have a great non-conference SOS either but the overall SOS is top-35 (33) and they don't have any real bad losses. Penn State takes on Illinois in the B1G tourney Thursday and Northwestern awaits the winner. (Records and metrics info per WarrenNolan.com)
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