CFB analyst: Wrong team favored in Clemson-Alabama

The line has consistently pushed Alabama's way since opening shortly after the Sugar Bowl was announced.

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Fri Dec 22 15:53:01 GMT-04:00 2017

The Vegas odds in the Clemson-Alabama rubber match have carried some intrigue in the lead-up to the Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl.

Despite being the nation’s top-ranked team, Clemson is an underdog for the first time this season, going from an initial line of 1.5 points in Alabama’s favor to 3 points now.

Reports last week had up to 88 percent of the money bet going the Crimson Tide’s way. CBS Sports college football analyst Barrett Sallee disagrees with the Alabama sentiment, however, saying that the wrong team is favored while on a podcast with former oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman.

“I think Clemson is the better football team and can dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides,” Sallee said. “As a result, I think they will win this game outright.”

Fuhrman cited power rankings favoring Alabama for the Crimson Tide’s reputation with the odds – and some rare extra motivation for the betting trends.

“If you watch this number move, that’s been the fascinating story here,” Fuhrman said. “Clemson actually opened as a one-point favorite at a number of Vegas books. We’ve seen Alabama move to a field goal and trending to 3.5 at some shops known to deal to some more professional gamblers.

“Of course the storylines here…what is this Alabama defense going to look like? They can get healthier, although they lost one of their key contributors on that side of the ball this week. Alabama, for the first time in a while, they’ve been sitting on the sidelines after losing the Iron Bowl. Foaming at the mouth about the SEC Championship and revenge on their mind about the national championship. You have a lot of those factors working in Alabama’s favor that you don’t usually have this time of year.

“When you look at the scenarios…Alabama is going to enter this game without beating a team at the FBS level in 51 days. That’s just absolutely mindboggling to me on so many levels.”

Fuhrman joins the crowd of wondering what a Deshaun Watson-less Clemson offense will do versus Alabama.

“You mention Clemson and what they can do defensively. It’s no fluke that they only give up 12.8 points per game,” he said. “They’ve held opposing rushing attacks in check for the better part of this season. The one question you have is, can Clemson win a game (against Alabama) with a more methodical offense? Because you don’t have the big-play potential of Deshaun Watson that you’ve had against Alabama each of the last two years.”

Fuhrman says Clemson has been a problem for Vegas this season, but the Tigers covering that Sugar Bowl number would actually work in its favor.

“The worst-case scenario, as we’ve seen with Clemson, is you can’t make numbers big enough,” Fuhrman said. “This is a team that pushed against NC State and they’ve been able to cover the number in their final four contests…When you see the top teams in the country and they’re not covering, you know that’s putting smiles on bookmakers’ faces.

“So (when) Alabama finished 5-7 against the number (this season), that is a very good situation to be in as the house (Vegas).”