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Replies: 26
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Legend [15492]
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Legend [18018]
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Hey, don't worry...
Sep 15, 2019, 11:30 PM
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 6:54 AM
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I know you hate everything Trump but he is actually correct. Saudi has 188 million barrels in storage tanks and the Strategic Reserve in the USA multiples of that, do the maffs. Loss of 5M a day, so divide say on the low side 300M by 5M . You have 60 days to fix the facility barring another attack. Fear will move the market not numbers
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 7:16 AM
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Also Aramco/KSA will pour money at it to get it back in operation ASAP. When it really matters they toss yard tons of dollars at a problem to make it right. With the push to list the Aramco IPO and Vision2030 it will be running in less than 30 days.
Hell I watched an entire field drilled, production infrastructure and facilities built in a year because another country poked a straw in the same field.
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CU Medallion [60034]
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Tiger1Dad
Sep 16, 2019, 7:29 AM
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In fairness I worked for them for over 20 years, though at times it felt like a 100. I worked the oil field supply side my whole career ,well almost the whole thing and feel most comfortable playing the oil market for profits in the ETF market. So I do tend to read,learn and gather info on it more than most.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Tiger1Dad
Sep 16, 2019, 7:38 AM
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If my crystal ball was not cloudy I should have went long oil Friday, prices up $5.50 a barrel on futures maket and that would have been easy money. Oh well, summer driving season is over, world economies are slowing and once plant is fixed and fear subsides it will be time to go short oil. Especially if oil rises enough to put a damper on world economies in the coming weeks/months. Y'all have fun.
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Legend [15492]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 1:18 PM
[ in reply to Re: Hey, don't worry... ] |
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I know you hate everything Trump but he is actually correct. Saudi has 188 million barrels in storage tanks and the Strategic Reserve in the USA multiples of that, do the maffs. Loss of 5M a day, so divide say on the low side 300M by 5M . You have 60 days to fix the facility barring another attack. Fear will move the market not numbers
This is true, not to mention we export 25% of our oil to foreign countries.
It's market fear motivated by a desire for profit by the oil speculators.
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Legend [18018]
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It's like art, you guys are reading too much into my post
Sep 16, 2019, 2:03 PM
[ in reply to Re: Hey, don't worry... ] |
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It's a weird singular all caps tweet by our President that does the opposite of what I'm guessing the intention was, namely, to reassure everyone that the attack on the oil reserve in Saudi Arabia wouldn't cause a panic.
But to your point, I think it's pretty well known that there is plenty of oil in the short term (we actually have too much in our reserves) but like carlsbad said, the prices at the pump are the only thing the average American cares about.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 8:44 AM
[ in reply to Hey, don't worry... ] |
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Donald forgets tbat we arent worried about running out of oil. We are worried about gas prices for everyday Americans.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 9:12 AM
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And there is plenty of oil in storage to meet all needs, any price movements will be fear and manipulation. Oil futures are a whacky thing, pennies on the dollar to own, no need to take possesion and no need to refine. Hedge funds love them. When oil ran to $147 a barrel there were 2 funds that controlled 90% of the futures contracts, just saying it is legal manipulation.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 9:15 AM
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The only thing that matters is that prices go up due to barrels being produced. Our gas price is going up. We have plenty of oil, but thats irrelevant.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 9:21 AM
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OPEC by being the swing producer sets prices to an extent. US Shale has limited their upside badly as anything above $50 shale makes money so they drill and supply holding down prices. Now this event is a bit different in that it knocked out the major swing producer in OPEC, thing is between the 188M barrels the Saudis hold in storage tanks around the world and the US Strategic Reserve(over 500M barrels) there is oil to meet demands, price will move based upon fear and manipulation. We lost 5M a day do the math on how long the stored oil will supply needs, it is longer than it will take them to get facillity fixed.
Yes the US has plenty of oil, thing is our production costs must be higher than market prices to get it out the ground.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 9:22 AM
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production costs must be lower- typed too fast before engaging my brain.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 9:36 AM
[ in reply to Re: Hey, don't worry... ] |
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I can tell you more than I know. That said, I met this oil guy in Tyler Texas, je wasnt producing shale, but he said for them that when oil orices per barrerl are under 70 dollars that tbey cant make a profit in Texas. He was a cool guy. He bought the dinner for my entire fam passing tjrough town....Mom, me, brother. sister, and some kids. Where is the line whete shale is profitable?
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 10:05 AM
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Offshore oil production costs are high in the USA. Even older onshore if fields require pressurization. Shale production costs run from a low of $28 to around $60. Texas shale is some of the lowest cost areas with Permian Basin and Eagleford. leading the way.Saudi production costs are $8-$12 a barrel but need much higher prices as the oil pays to run the entire country. Big push before I left was NG drilling but they kept hitting oil ??????. They want to use NG for electrical power generation though they may begin a shift to solar.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 10:11 AM
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USA shale reserves were estimated at 2T barrels though there is much debate on actual recoverable barrels. Recoverable due to price constraints, environmental impacts and development of future extraction methods.Fracking is controversial and water intensive.
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All-In [48078]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 11:08 AM
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Thanks for the insight.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 11:50 AM
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You are most welcome, have a good day.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Hey, don't worry...
Sep 16, 2019, 12:00 PM
[ in reply to Re: Hey, don't worry... ] |
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Shale also is able to be scaled up to production relatively cheaply and quickly too. 3-6 months from drilling to production for shale versus years and billions for offshore.
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Oculus Spirit [93657]
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Couple of short quick thoughts here...
Sep 16, 2019, 12:16 PM
[ in reply to Re: Hey, don't worry... ] |
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Trump didn't guide the drones which broke the Saudi oil machine and gas comes from oil. We'll see how much of the reserves he orders released.
Anyway, this one is going to hurt and oil price increases always hurt the working poor so much more than welfare/SS folks and the wealthy.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Couple of short quick thoughts here...
Sep 16, 2019, 12:31 PM
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As much as needed to keep gas prices in check before the election is my bet
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Oculus Spirit [97703]
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Whale, we do product as much as Saudi Arabia now
Sep 16, 2019, 11:23 AM
[ in reply to Hey, don't worry... ] |
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before the attacks even. In a few months when new pipelines open we will be WELL above that. 5 years? Who knows. Either way we're self-sufficient with oil for a LONG time.
Except that we need to build more refineries.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Whale, we do product as much as Saudi Arabia now
Sep 16, 2019, 11:43 AM
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Actually being self sufficient is a bit of a misnomer as most of our refineries run heavey crude. Shale is light crude thus not suitable for our refineries, selling it does keep price per barrel down as it supports demand elsewhere.
Now if we built some light crude refineries all would be good but we still pay world prices for barrels of oil.
Aramco built one of the last and largest refineries in America at Houston.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Re: Whale, we do product as much as Saudi Arabia now
Sep 16, 2019, 11:47 AM
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Though given the possibility of how things go in the ME the USA could very easily become the major swing producer of oil in the world shortly.Not a bad thing at all, plus it pays really good wages for those it employs and trickles down through the local businesses to include bars and strippers. Man oil field guys love them some strippers I tell you, now if we just had a way to tax those strippers.
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Oculus Spirit [97703]
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Last new oil refinery built was in 1977
Sep 16, 2019, 12:11 PM
[ in reply to Re: Whale, we do product as much as Saudi Arabia now ] |
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We've only expanded existing ones since then. Almost as bad on the nuclear front. Only two nuclear plants have come online since 1977. Jenkinsville was going to be a third. And they're still building one in Georgia I think, but who knows if/when it will start making electricity.
Sad state really.
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CU Guru [1907]
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Replies: 26
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