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All-TigerNet [12233]
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Who is beating winners and who is beating losers...
Oct 28, 2018, 6:51 PM
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Since we are due to see the CFP Committee (CFPC) rankings revealed Tuesday night, I thought I would take a little deeper look into the records of the top nine teams in both the AP and Coaches poll. I did this last year and it is always interesting to compare who is beating "winners" vs who is attained a winning record feeding on "losers". In a nutshell, I think this provides a more accurate assessment of quality wins because it is not influenced by biased early season polling or anything else. It simply considers the records involved and clearly shows if a team is beating cupcakes or beating teams that know how to win.
For the list below W=team with winning record, E=team with even record, L=team with losing record.
A team with the record: 3W-2E-3L would be read as having beaten 3 teams with a winning record, 2 teams with even records, and 3 teams with losing records. Here are the facts/stats:
Alabama: 2W-3E-3L
Clemson: 4W-3E-1L
Notre Dame: 3W-2E-3L
LSU: 6W-1L
Michigan: 5W-2L
Georgia: 3W-2E-2L
Oklahoma: 2W-1E-4L
Ohio State: 1W-1E-5L
UCF: 2E-5L
To deep dive even further, I added up the combined the total "wins" and "losses" on the top 9 teams schedules to form an numeric average for the quality opponent faced this year. If the combined average is below .500 then the a team has beaten an overall "losing" opponent schedule.
Here are the facts:
Alabama: .446
Clemson: .613
Notre Dame: .508
LSU: .632
Michigan: .544
Georgia: .536
Oklahoma: .455
Ohio State: .404
UCF: .364
From these stats here are the conclusions I would make:
1. For all the negative press Clemson has received from some biased folks about "not playing anybody" we have actually played and beaten more teams with a winning record than anyone else except LSU. That facts bear out that Clemson has played a tougher schedule than a lot of folks are giving us credit.
2. As many have suspected, Alabama's schedule has been anemic compared to the other top 5 ranked teams. I have no doubt that Alabama is good but truthfully they have not faced a series of quality opponents as seen in their average opponent quality number of .446 (opponents combined record of 29W,36L). Only Clemson and LSU break the 60% winning quality opponent number.
3. Oklahoma and Ohio State have very weak cases to be among the top teams in the country. Oklahoma has only beaten 2 teams with a winning record and Ohio State has only beaten 1 team with a winning record.
4. UCF does not belong in the top 10. Simply put - UCF's opponent record is pitiful (.364 [20W, 35L]) and they have yet to beat a team with a winning record. Until they can prove themselves against some power 5 quality opponents (someone with a winning record) UCF should not be in the top 10 as they are beating teams that most teams above .500 would beat.
5. Finally - beating "ranked" opponents during the first 5 weeks of the football season should not count for anything. Those rankings are not based on any real data of how good a team is and should not even be considered by week 8 of the season. Case in point - LSU beating an 8th ranked Miami team in week one. As the season has played out - does anyone truly believe that Miami was ever a top 20 team much less a top 10 team? Quite frankly, it would be best if no polls were released until week 5 of the season.
For those that want to see the data from which all this is drawn - here ya go:
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All-In [30804]
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Going by that and listening to Chris Fowler's explanation
Oct 28, 2018, 7:01 PM
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on why he put LSU above us leads me to ask why he didn't put Clemson above Alabama.
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All-In [25381]
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Exactly and why he and the rest of that crowd
Oct 28, 2018, 7:09 PM
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should stick to broadcasting while keeping their piehole opinions to themselves.
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Orange Blooded [2340]
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Re: Exactly and why he and the rest of that crowd
Oct 28, 2018, 7:41 PM
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Commentators are paid specifically to express their opinion. We may disagree with his opinion at times, but overall Fowler is one of the best in the business. ESPN wouldn't have much programming if they made everyone keep their opinions to themselves.
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Legend [17753]
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Re: Exactly and why he and the rest of that crowd
Oct 29, 2018, 9:11 AM
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But...but....Fowler is mean.
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All-In [25381]
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With our present system there is one and only one
Oct 28, 2018, 7:06 PM
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poll that matters: the CFP.
And exactly why all these Way Too Early, Preseason, AP , UPI, and other polls are insignificant, and thus, why the NCAA should have indicated such and invited the whole lot of them out of the polling business.
And as a footnote, ESPN needs to uninvolve itself in any type of poll, as well as the Heisman competition. Their job is to broadcast sports...and keep their dammed opinions to themselves. Period.
Nice work on your part.
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Orange Blooded [2860]
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Re: Who is beating winners and who is beating losers...
Oct 28, 2018, 7:25 PM
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Loved these posts last year and appreciate them this year. Thank you for taking the time to do this!
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Orange Blooded [3367]
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Re: Who is beating winners and who is beating losers...
Oct 29, 2018, 7:33 AM
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Well to be honest Ga Southern at 7-1 pads our figures .
And that’s a cupcake anyway you want to look at it.
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Orange Blooded [2474]
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And Nancy State has beaten a bunch of nobody’s
Oct 29, 2018, 8:28 AM
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But Shhhhhhhhhhhhh.... (people really want to believe we’ve beaten quality teams!)
We are fine and on par with everyone else. Everything will work itself out. We just have to win out. Our offense is hitting on all cylinders and has caught up with our elite defense. Enjoy the rest of this incredible season folks!
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All-TigerNet [12233]
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Re: Who is beating winners and who is beating losers...
Oct 29, 2018, 8:35 AM
[ in reply to Re: Who is beating winners and who is beating losers... ] |
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Well to be honest Ga Southern at 7-1 pads our figures .
And that’s a cupcake anyway you want to look at it.
Doesn't really change the stats a whole lot because every team has some non-conference padding. Here are the same stats for all opponents and just Power 5 opponents (removes all FCS and non-Power 5 opponents):
As you can see removing the non-Power 5 doesn't affect Clemson's standing in regards to quality opponent ratings - we are still the second highest with LSU having the best opponent record...
UCF = 0 because they have not played a Power 5 team.
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110%er [5093]
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Re: Who is beating winners and who is beating losers...
Oct 29, 2018, 8:39 AM
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It highlights why your statistical method is erroneous.
You’re making quite the assumption that all wins are equal.
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All-In [30764]
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he followed the correct methods
Oct 29, 2018, 10:00 AM
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use some stats to make a biased statement. .
that is exactly how it works .
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110%er [5093]
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All-TigerNet [12233]
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Re: Who is beating winners and who is beating losers...
Oct 29, 2018, 8:58 AM
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Don’t let reason get in the way of a good statistical fallacy 
Ok Classof09 - since you decided to open your beak let's take a look at USuC's wins shall we...
Against all opponents:
USuC: 1W-1E-2L with a quality opponent rating of .485
Against Power 5 opponents:
USuC: 1E-2L with a quality opponent rating of .440
Conclusions:
1. USuC has yet to beat a Power 5 team with a winning record - congratulations. If that trend holds it does not bode well for USuC making it to a bowl game this year.
2. USuC's stats are somewhat lacking as the sample size for the number of games they have "won" is pathetically small...
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All-In [36207]
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Looks Like Chickens Gotta Eat Some Crow***
Oct 29, 2018, 9:22 AM
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110%er [5093]
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Orange Blooded [4854]
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Re: Who is beating winners and who is beating losers...
Oct 29, 2018, 11:25 AM
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Nice; so you admit that his system has your beloved ####$ pegged right as they are. Point made.
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All-In [49613]
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All-In [36207]
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Bump.....You Could Never Work For ESPN
Oct 29, 2018, 8:40 AM
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Your positions are based in logic and fact.
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CU Guru [1824]
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This will become even more clear on Nov 17
Oct 29, 2018, 9:09 AM
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when Syracuse beats Notre Dame on a neutral field.
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110%er [7459]
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That’s a ND home game. Literally
Oct 29, 2018, 10:13 AM
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from a schduling AND fan support standpoint. They moved the game there.
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Legend [17753]
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Please put in a PPT slide with no more than five bullet points summarizing
Oct 29, 2018, 9:17 AM
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Tabby, you have one of the top 5 user handles and so I usually give you a TU regardless. I work in Excel all day and can't stomach looking at one outside of work.
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Orange Blooded [4024]
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great work!.I hope those stats mean what they say.
Oct 29, 2018, 11:50 AM
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I'm the rare fan who wants a couple more grind-out wins against conference competition..if we do get the opportunity to face bama again, we're gonna have to know how to respond to a gut punch..a couple of nail biter w's like ta&m and syracuse will only help.
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110%er [6009]
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Re: great work!.I hope those stats mean what they say.
Oct 30, 2018, 12:35 AM
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Bama has not had gut punching games either. We had Tamu and Syracuse while we were figuring out the QB situation so we have faced more adversity than Bama.
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Legend [16207]
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Nice work...Can you update your OP to include SOS
Oct 29, 2018, 12:02 PM
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Not sure who has the best overall strength of schedule ratings but it would be nice to include SOS in your original post.
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Hall of Famer [24507]
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It's about the 'dreaded' eye test....
Oct 30, 2018, 12:44 AM
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And everybody thinks Bama is soooo Dominant....
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Walk-On [121]
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Re: Who is beating winners and who is beating losers...
Oct 30, 2018, 11:09 AM
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Thank you for taking the time, very informative.
Replies to others:
Journalism died awhile ago, ESPN should stick to analysis not opinion as should all journalism but those days are long gone.
I lay heavy odds on Georgia Southern beating the snot out of the Gamecocks in a head to head match up. Could be a possible bowl game if Carolina could get a better record.
Ranking the teams before the season is over is 100% entertainment value targeted at riling up the masses. Look back statistically at how much change occurs leading up to the final ranking. If it were truly only about finding the 4 best teams they would wait until all the games are played (which they will be with or without all the speculation) hunker down in a room and give us the final four. As a team or a fan all we can really do is wait for the games to be played. But where's the fun I that.
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