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All-TigerNet [14921]
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Why is the Vegas spread on a game such a big deal?
Sep 12, 2019, 11:17 AM
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It's not even what the folks in Vegas think is going to happen in the game--it's what they think people who bet on the games think will happen so they can get even money on both sides... It's like 2 steps removed from a real prediction.
It's like on Family Feud, the difference between guessing an answer to the survey that you think is *correct* vs. guessing an answer that you think the dumb-### people they surveyed would've provided.
Yet it's become such a significant statistic in judging the performances of teams and coaches--"So and so is 5-0 but only 2-3 ATS..."
Anyone else think it's an overused and overvalued metric?
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110%er [5372]
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I stopped reading when you admitted to watching Family Feud***
Sep 12, 2019, 11:24 AM
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All-TigerNet [10866]
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That show has really fallen. It is a crime what they are
Sep 12, 2019, 11:26 AM
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doing to Steve Harvey.
"We asked 100 women what does it sound like when your husband farts?"
Steve Harvey: *surprise face*
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All-TigerNet [14921]
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All-TigerNet [10480]
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Re: Why is the Vegas spread on a game such a big deal?
Sep 12, 2019, 11:26 AM
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Because making it a big deal ropes in more gambling addicts.
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All-TigerNet [13035]
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Because the collective intelligence of a bunch of sports gamblers
Sep 12, 2019, 11:27 AM
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is actually quite high. For the most part Vegas has to put out as accurate of lines as possible otherwise they leave themselves open to exploitation. There are some genius sports bettors out there with their own algorithms and such looking for lines with a lot of equity.
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All-TigerNet [14921]
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My point is, it's a system wholly built on making the house
Sep 12, 2019, 11:41 AM
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money, nothing more. It should never be used as a metric for success of a team.
The fact that handfuls of people can exploit it doesn't make it any more accurate of a measuring stick.
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All-TigerNet [13035]
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I don't think it should be used to judge performance but It can be
Sep 12, 2019, 3:00 PM
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a good predictor of future performance. If a team is 4-0 but 0-4 against the spread that's a pretty good indicator that the team isn't as good as expected and may struggle when faced with stiffer competition. That may or may not be reflected in the polls as those mostly rank teams simply by record, perhaps with small adjustments.
The spread also helps add context to games. I like to see that team A is a 6 point favorite over team B and such.
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All-TigerNet [11478]
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Re: Why is the Vegas spread on a game such a big deal?
Sep 12, 2019, 11:34 AM
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You are right and wrong about how the spread is set.
Yes it is set to get even betting but if they don't set the line near the expected outcome it won't draw money on both sides.
Sure Texas A&M was a popular pick against the spread last week , but not so popular or obvious that Vegas lost a ton of money on the last score. Also if one late score changes who beats the spread then Vegas was pretty close on the actual score projection.
Record ATS is only useful when a team has played multiple games with a large number for the spread and now has a more even match-up.
If A&M loses the game but beats the spread against us and Bama early in a season, it could signal a positive outcome when they play a game with a more comparable opponent who may have under-performed ATS vs weaker opponents in wins.
All-in-all none of it has any effect on the outcome of a single game, but it can be very telling of what to expect in most games.
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Letterman [285]
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Re: Why is the Vegas spread on a game such a big deal?
Sep 12, 2019, 11:35 AM
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Point spreads are fluid - they are a live market not just were Vegas thinks people will bet. When they first set a line it is true it's at a level they believe will receive the most bets on both sides of the line, but the line is adjusted based on money received.
Most money bet on games actually comes from professional betters who are very very good at handicapping games.
I don't think many people outside of gambling community care about ATS records. It carries very little value
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All-TigerNet [14921]
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I've seen a lot of sports writers the last few years using
Sep 12, 2019, 11:47 AM
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ATS records in stories and write-ups, especially in referencing head coaches' strengths and weaknesses. ####, Gameday now has a that Bear guy whose whole purpose is to talk up the betting lines--he wasn't part of the show until recently.
Seems to me, at least anecdotally, that's it's become a big part of the narrative of a teams' success, especially considering there's no real consequence to it.
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All-TigerNet [13035]
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Honestly I think they are just trying to capture a piece of that growing market.
Sep 12, 2019, 3:04 PM
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Sports betting is now legal in 11 states and that's going to grow quickly. It's a very popular topic and it makes sense that the networks would begin to embrace it and start providing some gambling-focused content.
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Orange Blooded [2248]
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Re: Why is the Vegas spread on a game such a big deal?
Sep 12, 2019, 1:56 PM
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It all depends on the situation. It may be overused, but often doing poorly against the spread can signify that a team is not as good as it is perceived. Generally if someone keeps winning in struggling fashion, they eventually get exposed. Most teams are not like Clemson, going in with 3+ TD spreads.
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110%er [7020]
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They're usually pretty #### accurate though.***
Sep 12, 2019, 2:18 PM
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CU Medallion [64946]
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I was about to say, they HAVE to be pretty accurate,
Sep 12, 2019, 2:32 PM
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because them making a living depends on it. That is also why you will usually see point spreads with half points on them. Vegas does not want a tie, or "push", which means nobody wins.
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