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YOUR BALANCE
Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good
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Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:11 PM

Was idly curious so I started perusing...Charlotte isn't terrible. In fact by the numbers they're quite a bit better than Georgia Tech is.

When my son did the recruiting circuit awhile back he came back burbling about Charlotte's facilities, which surprised me, but they were obviously making a massive push to upgrade their program. The money they've put into their program shows, whatever - they've elevated themselves to Conference USA status, arguably the top conference in the so-called "Group of 5", and they're 2-1 right now. They beat Gardner-Webb (49-28), dropped a shootout to an unbeaten App State team (56-41) - outgaining the Mountaineers 526 yards of total O to 458, losing owing mostly to two turnovers - and then thumped UMass 52-17 this past week.

Their offense is shockingly good, nationally, just four places behind Clemson, ranking 17th overall in yards per game (522.3 per game) out of 130 FBS team. If you've read my prior posts you've probably seen I use the NCAA stats site as a natural "bell curve"...that means, like Clemson, the 49ers are an A-level offense in college football. Their scoring offense has been better than ours...47.3 points per game, good for 14th overall, whereas we've averaged 39.0ppg (28th overall.)

Their D has also performed well. The 49ers rank 42nd out of 130 FBS teams, good for a solid "B" on that aforementioned bell curve. They allow just 313.0 yards per game, though their scoring D hasn't been as good; they've allowed 33.7 points per game, which puts them at 106th nationally.

What jumps off that stats sheet is this: this is not a bodybag game. These guys have absolutely zero name recognition because they're so new to FBS, but they are assuredly not Furman or El Cid or even Coastal Carolina. I doubt they're quite as good as their stats indicate, but they didn't get those numbers in a vacuum, and they certainly indicate this Charlotte team probably ranks anywhere from the 30's to 50's nationally in reality and are substantially better than a lot of bottom-end Power-5 teams. Like I said, I think they'd thump Georgia Tech good and proper right now.

Clemson's coaches do a good job prepping so I doubt any of this will be a surprise, but Clemson fans expecting a casual 70-point stroll next week are likely in for a surprise. Charlotte can and likely will fight back some - this could be a statement game for them - and this is not an automatic "W" if Clemson sleepwalks in.

FWIW.

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and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 15, 2019, 4:13 PM

no one is to be taken lightly these days

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Re: and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 15, 2019, 4:20 PM

True dat! We all thought the offense would need to carry a young but talented defense until they got their footing. Turns out th Defense under BV is outstanding and are bailing out the offense.

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Re: and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 15, 2019, 4:50 PM

Yep - 1Dad - that’s exactly what I thought !!

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If people were as good as their obituary - and products were as good as advertised - this would truly be a wonderful world !!


Re: and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 15, 2019, 5:30 PM [ in reply to Re: and the way our offense has sputtered ]

Bailing out the offense ?

That's a bit of an extreme take huh ?
The Defense has playsd really well , but with a few exceptions and some wrinkles to be ironed out the offense has also been really good .

Can they be better ? Oh yes , but it's hardly a team that is predicated on either or . Our balance is what makes us as good a team as we are these days .

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DB23


Re: and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 15, 2019, 5:47 PM

3 turnovers by interceptions so far that gave them the ball in the red zone say hello. Yesterday the game could look different given when they occurred and if it swung big mo.

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Re: and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 15, 2019, 5:54 PM

So let's give them +14 off of those two T/Os and do math .
Still a 21 point win for the good guys .

I am certainly not saying the defense isn't coming up huge in the first few weeks but the offense has been very good as well .


Message was edited by: Tigerdug23®


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DB23


Re: and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 15, 2019, 6:15 PM

Offense has been okay in spurts, still hope it comes together by year end. You assume that the game plays out the same way after those14 points, I do not. Not saying we lose but thinking the offense is remotely clicking currently is incorrect in my opinion.

Rodgers individual effort on his long score makes things look better as it was a bubble screen , his effort and really poor tackling. A garbage time TD by CM also makes stat guys happy but are distorting.

TL is gonna be great, right now he looks to me to be pressing. Maybe it is the off season addition of muscle but he just looks off on throws but more concerning are some throws that just seem to be a bad choice. Just hoping he gets right because we are gonna need him to be accurate and making good choices on where he throws it. His running is far better this year ,

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if they score they get momentum


Sep 15, 2019, 6:33 PM

way different ball game in that case.

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Your first paragraph +1 EXACTLY


Sep 17, 2019, 9:55 PM [ in reply to Re: and the way our offense has sputtered ]

DO NOT underestimate the power of momentum especially for that environment.

We were on the verge of letting that team beat us AGAIN before the Rodgers scamper. No doubt in my mind.

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Re: and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 15, 2019, 6:09 PM [ in reply to Re: and the way our offense has sputtered ]

No. They were bailed out yesterday. An nonperforming defense and it's a 14 to 21 pt swing. At 1 point is could've easily have been 24-21 late in the 3rd if not for those bail outs. A team game yes, but let's not fool ourselves as to what unit is carrying this team right now.

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Re: and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 15, 2019, 6:16 PM

Yup and who knows how it plays out then.

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Re: and the way our offense has sputtered


Sep 17, 2019, 2:34 PM [ in reply to and the way our offense has sputtered ]

Sputtered?? Really? We are averaging more yards, points per game and TD's than any other of our Tiger teams the last five seasons! Are we that spoiled of a fan base now? What a bad look for our fan base.

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Yes, unfortunately we are that spoiled.***


Sep 17, 2019, 3:49 PM



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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:18 PM

Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of defeat, I fear no loss, for BV and his defense are with us.........

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So you think they'll score 10...? ***


Sep 15, 2019, 4:20 PM



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Re: So you think they'll score 10...? ***


Sep 15, 2019, 4:24 PM

Watching Brent any score eats at his soul, no matter if the 3rd string is on the field. He is one intense individual!

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:24 PM

Next team up...

...Clemson does what Tigers do

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DON’T SLEEP!!***


Sep 15, 2019, 4:26 PM



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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:32 PM

Thanks for the info. I really had no idea and assumed it would be the worst team in the Valley ever. That is obviously not true.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:40 PM

Lost to Tennessee only 14-3 last year.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:45 PM

So they got caught looking past the Vols.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:52 PM

Yep - obvious trap game !! -:D

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If people were as good as their obituary - and products were as good as advertised - this would truly be a wonderful world !!


Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:49 PM

Now .... you’ve got me worried - quozz ..... I respect your posts and knowledge !!

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If people were as good as their obituary - and products were as good as advertised - this would truly be a wonderful world !!


Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:52 PM

The HC is a rising star, IMO. Watch for him to move on in the next couple of years to a major program. Healy actually got positive reviews from Dabo when he took the job at Charlotte.

I think it’ll be an easy W. But agree with the assessment, not a push over.

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What's a "bodybag game?"


Sep 15, 2019, 4:53 PM

Sounds interesting.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:54 PM

quozzel Great Post!

They are playing at a high level. Also worth mentioning; the game with App State was at App State. They have some nice talent and will be a force in Conference USA for sure!

Clemson will overpower them; but the defense will have to show up with that big game intensity for these guys!

Their OC "was going to be a State Trooper"! So, mental toughness is part of his make up. Probably has cascaded it to his OL and offense.

https://charlotte49ers.com/news/2019/3/26/spring-football-coaches-corner-alex-atkins.aspx

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 4:57 PM

I post on Charlotte offense yesterday there averaging 47pts a game. Now I expect Clemson to hold them under 20 but expect Charlotte to actually try

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Tell 'em u5c coot


Sep 15, 2019, 7:05 PM

.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 5:22 PM

While stipulating that no opponent should be overlooked and that "on any given Saturday...", it is a fact that Clemson has far superior athletes to start with. In 2018, Charlottr's recruiting class was ranked 111th in the country by 247Sports; this year, they've dropped to 132nd.

Also, there is the matter of coaching. The Charlotte HC may be a "rising star" but our entire staff is top-shelf, the best in the business..

I wouldn't look for a close game.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 6:29 PM

Absolutely - that’s why I think the game won’t be close. But just acknowledging that they do, potentially, have a solid coach. They don’t have the talent to really hang and it is his first season at Charlotte.

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Charlotte's problem will be their backups against ours.


Sep 15, 2019, 5:33 PM

You can't play your starters for 60 minutes (or you can and watch them lose quite a bit of their effectiveness as the game wears on).

Clemson will wear Charlotte out with overall talent for starters and backups.

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So you're saying


Sep 15, 2019, 5:40 PM

They would beat Dirtpecker U?

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Sounds like it to me. Coot defense is porous ***


Sep 15, 2019, 6:42 PM



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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 6:00 PM

They played mid majors and an fcs so our offensive stats don’t translate. We’ll stomp these guys good.

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As a UNCC alum circa 1997, I would love to see Charlotte


Sep 15, 2019, 6:16 PM

compete and play hard..... but imo n way do I see anything short of a 59-10 kind of game.

Tiger 4 life, bleed orange but hoping UNCC can continue to develop and get better. Great opportunity to be seen on a Saturday night in Death Valley. Never a bad thing to be seen on TV, especially against the elite football program in all of America ????

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 15, 2019, 6:43 PM

Isn't K. J. Henry's Dad on the Charlotte coaching staff?

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 16, 2019, 4:46 PM

Hey, guys. Charlotte fan here. Thanks for the kind words. A couple corrections/things i'd like to point out. I certainly agree that healy could get hired away by a "bigger" program, mike hill, our new a.d., seems to be setting us up for a move to a better conference like the aac...or down the road, maybe the SEC(don't laugh, our hoops history, facilities and most importantly, our major metro make it possible). all i know is, we need out of CUSA. Also, someone posted about our recruiting rankings but they posted it backwards, it was 132 last season and 111 so far this season and i expect it to be top 100 at least by the end of the class. About the UT game last season, we certainly could have won it but were playing with our backup qb and our old coach was awful with a capital a. the change from him to healy is night and day. that being said, none of our fans have any delusion about winning this game, or even keeping it close but i think we just want to put up some points, make a strong showing for ourselves and get out injury free since we need to bowl this season. you guys certainly our loaded with talent but hopefully you come away from this game impressed with us. good luck guys(not sure you'll need it).

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I disagree


Sep 17, 2019, 10:20 AM

We're favored by 40+ for a reason. Charlotte's currently ranked 108th in the SP+ and 128th in defense out of 130 FBS teams. There are still some preseason biases in the model, but they haven't shown anything yet other than a mediocre to lower-tier C-USA team.

Charlotte beat Gardner-Webb 49-28, but East Carolina (ranked 116th in the SP+) also beat Gardner-Webb 48-9. ECU's other two games were a 34-6 loss to NC State and a 42-10 loss to Navy.

As for the App State game, they scored 41, but they gave up 56 points to App State. The App State RB got 234 yards rushing on 19 carries. If Charlotte had that much trouble with the App State rushing attack, I have no idea how they're going to stop Clemson's rushing attack.

As for UMass, they're currently ranked 129th out of 130 teams in the S&P+. They're 0-3 with all 3 losses by 25+, including a 25-point loss to Southern Illinois, an FCS team. There's a legitimate chance that UMass doesn't win a game all season.

My guess is Clemson wins something like 55-10. The Charlotte defense is by far the worst we'll see all season, and their offense, while ok against inferior competition, will be physically outmatched at the LOS.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 17, 2019, 12:19 PM

Yet we’re a 41.5 point favorite. ???????

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 17, 2019, 1:11 PM



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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 17, 2019, 1:13 PM

Sounds like we are in deep ship.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good***


Sep 17, 2019, 1:53 PM





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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 17, 2019, 3:34 PM

I don't think Q's point was that 'Charlotte is so good that we could lose this game', although in the Tommy Bowden days that would not have been an impossibility.

I think his point is that the inherently spoiled fanbase that wants our great offensive athletes to put up some video game "beginner settings only" numbers need to chill.

If we're only up 7 after 1 qtr, TL has completed fewer than 50% of his passes, and BV's ferocious defense has already been scored on does NOT give us the moral right--no, it's an obligation, dadgummit!--to boo our starters, show our all-orange butts on national TV and call for CB7 to take over. You say you would never do that, but i expect it real soon.

ESPN has Charlotte up to a 57% chance of going to a bowl game this year. They have a good chance of scoring more points against us than anyone else has. And btw, they're defensive ranking of #106 is in scoring only, not yardage, and is influenced by giving up 21 instant points to UMass before settling down to destroy the Minutemen over the rest of the hour.

Outscoring all our previous opponents would be quite an accomplishment for the 49ers, considering we are the only team in the nation that has started the season with 3 Power 5 opponents, averaged playing 63 players and yet we're only giving up 10 PpG.

Tigers will take care of business. It's a 60-minute game. And all you hard-to-please types need to be patient and not let all the SEC-hype bother you.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 17, 2019, 7:51 PM

Rw43 said:

I don't think Q's point was that 'Charlotte is so good that we could lose this game', although in the Tommy Bowden days that would not have been an impossibility.

I think his point is that the inherently spoiled fanbase that wants our great offensive athletes to put up some video game "beginner settings only" numbers need to chill.

If we're only up 7 after 1 qtr, TL has completed fewer than 50% of his passes, and BV's ferocious defense has already been scored on does NOT give us the moral right--no, it's an obligation, dadgummit!--to boo our starters, show our all-orange butts on national TV and call for CB7 to take over. You say you would never do that, but i expect it real soon.

ESPN has Charlotte up to a 57% chance of going to a bowl game this year. They have a good chance of scoring more points against us than anyone else has. And btw, they're defensive ranking of #106 is in scoring only, not yardage, and is influenced by giving up 21 instant points to UMass before settling down to destroy the Minutemen over the rest of the hour.

Outscoring all our previous opponents would be quite an accomplishment for the 49ers, considering we are the only team in the nation that has started the season with 3 Power 5 opponents, averaged playing 63 players and yet we're only giving up 10 PpG.

Tigers will take care of business. It's a 60-minute game. And all you hard-to-please types need to be patient and not let all the SEC-hype bother you.



Yeah, that.

I don't see Charlotte beating us, but if we show up sleepwalking they could put up some points and hang around for awhile and leave people wondering What's Up With Clemson. It'd take a truly spectacular alignment of bounces for them to pull an App State-visits-Michigan on us but again...there's a reason you play the game.

I don't think their run D is good enough but if they do what Syracuse did and sell out to stop the run and we struggle to punish them downfield, they could put a scare or at least some frustration into us.

Like I said, I think they're better than GT. Which I'll admit is a low bar this year.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 17, 2019, 7:56 PM

RW3 and quozzel Exactly! Nobody is saying Charlotte will beat the Tigers!
Just saying: "it may not be the cupcake we thought"!
It's still a cupcake - but the 49ers may be more difficult to put in the oven and bake away! You might have to do ph test, frosting alignments, sweetness samples, then put it in the oven before you can bake them! LOL!

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 17, 2019, 9:44 PM [ in reply to Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good ]

This could be a good test for our D and get the young kids a lot of film to work on. In all honesty, we should anf will be able to line up and smash mouth them and run the ball. As well as give TL enough time to go through his progressions and wait for Ross and Tee to come open. Hopefully a good game to work out some of the timing with the young receivers.

As for the D. They can put stress through the air to give our secondary a good stress test, again especially the inexperienced players.

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 17, 2019, 7:51 PM

We have to be mentally & physically prepared for this one!

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Re: Uh...Charlotte looks sneaky good


Sep 17, 2019, 8:18 PM

Best group of 5 conference is the AAC, not Conference USA. In fact, the AAC insists on calling the P5 the P6 because he thinks the AAC should be included with the big boys.

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