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Who still has room for error in the CFP?
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Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 8:16 AM

Who do you think could lose in the back half and still get in? I believe that Alabama could lose one of three games (LSU, Auburn, or SEC Championship) and still get in the CFP. I think that LSU could run the table and lose a close rematch to Georgia and still get in. I don't think anyone else gets in with a loss down the stretch unless 5 or 6 teams lose.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 8:23 AM

Bama for sure, with one loss ( ... because ‘ ALABAMA ‘ !! ). Two losses, don’t think so - but would LOVE to see THAT!

We MIGHT be able to - but would need help: SEC(-Bama) and BIG with no 1 loss teams.

ND MIGHT have a chance with the ‘2 loss SEC/BIG caveat above.

Nobody else can afford to lose another game.

Message was edited by: Uncle Bill®


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Whatever choice(s) you make makes you. Choose wisely.


Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 9:18 AM

I disagree on Notre Dame. I think they committee made a point by putting them behind LSU that they have not been super impressive to this point. Add a loss to their lack of big games to finish the schedule and I don't think they have any chance. They would be placed behind a 2 loss champ who is winning to finish the season.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 9:20 AM

Only Alabama!

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 9:30 AM

I tend to agree, but I think if LSU wins out and loses in a close game to a team they dominated the first go around, then I certainly think they have an argument. I think they would still need teams to lose, but I am not sure they would need the chaos that everybody else would.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 9:33 AM

I think if Alabama were to lose the SEC champ game, they are out. I'm sorry but the committee needs to realize that is a play in game, I don't care if they are undefeated until then, they should still be out.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 9:43 AM


I think if Alabama were to lose the SEC champ game, they are out. I'm sorry but the committee needs to realize that is a play in game, I don't care if they are undefeated until then, they should still be out.



Completely agree with this 100%

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 9:40 AM

If Alabama loses a very close game against LSU this weekend. I do not believe the committee will even drop them out of the top four. In that scenario I see; Clemson at #1, LSU #2, ND #3, and Bama #4.

I prefer Alabama to win this weekend, so that we can get them in the national championship game.

Message was edited by: NorCATiger®


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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 9:47 AM


If Alabama loses a very close game against LSU this weekend. I do not believe the committee will even drop them out of the top four. In that scenario I see; Clemson at #1, LSU #2, ND #3, and Bama #4.

I prefer Alabama to win this weekend, so that we can get them in the national championship game.

Message was edited by: NorCATiger®



This is the same way I feel about it. Alabama needs to win this week to help keep the playoff to only 1 SEC team.

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Disagree here. Assuming Bama loses and everyone else wins


Nov 1, 2018, 10:38 AM [ in reply to Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP? ]

That means Georgia wins at Kentucky and Michigan wins at Penn State. Oklahoma would also get a pretty nice road win at Texas Tech.

In that scenario the rankings should be:

1) LSU
2) Clemson
3) ND
4/5) Michigan / Georgia (This one would be really tight)
6/7) Bama / OU (I would lean OU, but Bama might get the brand bump here)

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Re: Disagree here. Assuming Bama loses and everyone else wins


Nov 1, 2018, 11:11 AM

Depends on how close the Bama loss is to LSU.

Who do you have winning the SEC championship game?

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I'm just talking about next week. Everyone says Bama


Nov 1, 2018, 11:38 AM

won't drop out of the top 4 if they lose to LSU. They absolutely will unless several other top 7 teams lose as well. Bama will have a chance to get back into the top 4 even if they lose to LSU, but i think their odds to make the playoff at that point would be < 50%.

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Re: I'm just talking about next week. Everyone says Bama


Nov 1, 2018, 3:06 PM


won't drop out of the top 4 if they lose to LSU. They absolutely will unless several other top 7 teams lose as well. Bama will have a chance to get back into the top 4 even if they lose to LSU, but i think their odds to make the playoff at that point would be < 50%.



Thanks for the clarification. They (Bama) will surely drop out of the top 4, but only temporarily depending on how close the loss to LSU is. If it's a one score or less Bama loss, I see their playoff chances as much greater than 50%. Of course this is all predicated on how everything in the other conferences shake out.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 9:52 AM

As long as the loss is not in a conference championship. Even Alabama would be left out if (say) they lost to Georgia in the SEC title game.

I think the committee looks at the conference title games as "play in" games.

That's also why ND would be in trouble if they lose one. All the one loss champions would pass them.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 10:18 AM

I would tend to disagree. If not making it to the game does not keep you out then I question the argument that losing it would keep you out. Keep in mind that I think since the committee has written that Conference championships are emphasized that I don't think you should be able to lose it and get in. My interest is in who people think could get in with another loss and minimal help and, personally, I don't think the committee has viewed the championships as anything more than one more game to evaluate a team's abilities.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 10:53 AM

The only reason Bama got in last years was because Wisconsin lost in the B1G title game. Had Wisconsin won Bama would have been watching the game with USuC at home. The committee decided a 1 loss Bama team deserved it more than a 2 loss OSU team. Even though Bama watch the SECheat championship at home. Now Bama is probably the only team in the country that could have done that because of their reputation. I believe the selection committee put LSU ahead of ND this week my opinion is they did it because if LSU beats Bama Saturday they wouldn't have as much of an argument jumping LSU then. ND hasn't played anyone but Michigan so far and beat them. But Michigan is #5 above UGA. Think that one out. UGA lost to the #3 team and is behind the team that lost to the #4 team. makes no since at all. Now Whos has LSU beaten? Georgia, Miss State, Auburn, and Miami. They claim them as top 25 wins but who really believes that Auburn and Miami is a top 25 team. Miss State is borderline to me. So LSU beat Georgia and lost to UF. My opinion is the SEC is trash with the exception of Bama and the ACC isn't any better with the exception of Clemson. But people try to argue that LSU should be #2. Well maybe the will be come Sunday but they shouldn't be there now. I'll give Bama the benefit of the doubt now because they have blown everyone out and Clemson struggled until they decided to stick to 1 QB. That decision is really starting to show that Clemson is way above anyone in the ACC and at least equal if not better than Bama. the other conferences are like the SECheat and ACC with the exception of Clemson and Bama.

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It depends on how many teams lose. If there's total chaos


Nov 1, 2018, 10:34 AM

quite a few teams can probably afford to lose one more game and still have a decent shot. In that scenario i think any 2-loss P5 champ would at least be in the conversation.

If there aren't many upsets i think that list is much shorter. It seems like we can probably afford one loss and still make it in if we finish 12-1 and win the conference. I'm not sure that's a lock though. We would currently need a little help IMO.

Bama *might* be able to lose a game and still get in, but i think there are plenty of scenarios where Bama loses and gets left out. I think 11-1 LSU vs 11-1 UGA in the SECCG = Bama out of the playoff. Also Bama at 11-1 and some combination of 4 of these teams leaves Bama out:

Clemson 13-0 or 12-1 ACC Champs
Georgia OR LSU 12-1 SEC Champs
Michigan OR Ohio State 12-1 Big Ten Champs
Notre Dame 12-0
Oklahoma 12-1 Big XII Champs

There's also the possibility of Bama losing to LSU and then LSU crapping the bed at A&M and giving the division back. I actually think it's quite a bit more likely that LSU loses at A&M than Bama loses at LSU.

I also think Michigan could be in the strongest position of anyone to get in at 2 losses. If they lose to Penn State but then beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten title game they will have a stronger resume than any other 2-loss team and probably some 1-loss teams as well.

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I can tell you who doesn't ..any two loss team***


Nov 1, 2018, 10:40 AM



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of the undefeated contenders


Nov 1, 2018, 10:40 AM

ND - I'm not sold that they definitely get in at 12-0 and for sure eliminated with 1 loss....they have the least room for error.

Clemson - I think they're realistically out with a loss, but if a little chaos happened there'd be a slight chance they sneak in.

Bama - Very likely they get in with 1 loss.......most room for error

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 11:47 AM

Chaos can and will happen again. So all of this debate is purely hypothetical and solely for fun. But I think the only way a 1-loss Bama miss the CFP is 1) LSU runs the table and wins the SEC and 2) one of the other Power 5 conferences has a 1-loss champ with a decent resume (so OK or Michigan, maybe an OSU or WV if they look much better the last 5 weeks of season). If chaos happens then you could look at a 1-loss ND/Clemson/WSU or non-champ 1-loss Bama getting in there. Heck even an undefeated UCF will deserve a glance if all the other options are 2-loss champs or 1-loss non-champs. UCF resume stinks right now but I'm talking undefeated Dec 2nd resume - it will look better by then.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 4:22 PM

Only a Bama loss to LSU would be forgiven. That is the only possible 2 SEC team scenario. Same as last year.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 4:56 PM

Bama for sure. If LSU loses again & it's in the SECCG, no way they get in (or shouldn't - never know with the SEC hype). I was thinking Notre Dame, but not so sure after listening to the committee Tuesday. I do believe we will not get in with a loss. Maybe if some sort of injury in a game and it's a very close loss, but I think the ACC is just down this year. A two loss team SHOULD NOT get in the playoffs especially if they don't win their conference championship.

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Re: Who still has room for error in the CFP?


Nov 1, 2018, 4:58 PM

Bama. Anyone else will be debated. Bama is in easy! System sucks!

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