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YOUR BALANCE
Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama
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Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 14, 2017, 7:06 PM

Usually it's not hard to figure what the so-called "sharps" - professional bettors - are looking at; they're pretty much just playing the matchups.

This time around, though, it looks like the smart money is going on Alabama. I've read several places now that the bets are coming in fast and furious eight to one on Alabama at -1.5, which pushed the line to -2.5...I'm trying to figure what they're looking at. Some of that is undoubtedly homerism - there is no more homeristic fan base than Bama's, no, not even OSU's - but a good bit of that is likely Sharp money, too.

Which is weird, at least to me. It feels like they're kind of doing the Same Old Maffs - well, it was a last-second game last year, and Clemson had Deshaun Watson, therefore, it follows with relentless logic that Alabama must now be favored, right? Especially when you go taking away Mike Williams, Jordan Leggett, Artavis Scott, and Gallman on top of that.

But this isn't last year's Clemson team, and it isn't last year's Alabama team either. Because Alabama lost a ton as well - TE OJ Howard, for one (who for whatever reason was completely invisible to Clemson's D, both years, in fact) and maybe most importantly, they also lost LT Cam Robinson, and they're not nearly as good in pass-pro this year without him. And their biggest loss, IMHO, was OC Lane Kiffin (and his stand-in, Steve Sarkisian.) Without that Southern Cal brain trust the Tide's offense has looked a ton more predictable and stodgy, hasn't been able to sustain drives, and keeps putting the D - which is still pretty stout if not quite as much so as it was last year - in minus situations. And I've seen the Tide look shaky...against mediocre teams like Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State. And the one really good team they played - Auburn - flat whumped them.

And Clemson has gotten way more lethal in the run game. Feaster, Etienne, and Choice - and a much more physical and dangerous runner in Kelly Bryant - make Clemson's run game a nightmare to defend right now. Alabama can probably stifle or at least limit that...but not with their base personnel (and I'm not convinced Etienne or Feaster don't pop one at one point, Alabama is great at the LOS, not so great in space.) They're going to have to spy Bryant...which is going to leave a ton of 1-on-1's open on the outside, and sorry, Clemson is going to have a bunch of wrinkles and plays available for that eventuality. Bryant's modest stats have also concealed one very apparent truth - the guy has been money when he's had to be, and when he's absolutely needed to make throws, he's made throws. We get to 21 points - or certainly 28 - and I think the game is over, because Alabama can't score that much, not without a lot of help from turnovers, anyway. And I think we get there in fairly ruthless and methodical fashion, and a lot earlier than some might expect. Kelly Bryant isn't Deshaun Watson, but he's for durn certain had Deshaun Watson's icewater-in-the-veins thing going. Especially early in games.

I dunno. Maybe they do just line up and stonewall us. But nobody except maybe Auburn has done that to us all year...and we got traction even against Auburn when we had to, and then sat on the lead and dared Auburn to do sumpin'. (They couldn't.) And this was early on in the year...and again, Bryant's progressed a fair piece since then. Go back and watch the tape - his body language and command of the O has progressed a ton since September 10th.

So I usually agree with the sharps. Right now, I think they might have Brand Name blinders on. Alabama showed increasingly more throat as the year progressed...whereas Clemson surged down the stretch as all those players Dabo & Staff developed grew in experience and confidence. We were playing 60-65 legitimate contributors a game down the stretch...and that ain't good, when Bama's main MO - some would say singular MO - is to line up and try to overwhelm you.

That's a lot of quality bodies to overwhelm. Can they really do it?

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Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 14, 2017, 7:26 PM

I'm with you. Even with these guys they claim are coming back there's no guarantee that they're going to be tremendously productive. In that first game against FSU and their putrid offensive line Bama looked like they have to manufacture pressure with blitzes.

It seems highly unlikely that Pruitt will be on top of his game either.

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Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 14, 2017, 7:35 PM

Couple of things to note:

1) the opening line of (1.5) Bama was essentially a pick’em and will continue to be viewed that way until it reaches 3+ points. In this scenario, the public will bet heavy on what they believe to be the known commodity (Bama).

2) Yes, most of the money has come in on Bama but the line has only moved one point, which means it isn’t a ton of volume money. Bunch of people laying $20 bets for the fun of it.

Watch the line the last 72 hours. My guess, it goes back to the 1.5.

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Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 14, 2017, 7:45 PM

> Couple of things to note:
>
> 1) the opening line of (1.5) Bama was essentially a
> pick’em and will continue to be viewed that way until
> it reaches 3+ points. In this scenario, the public
> will bet heavy on what they believe to be the known
> commodity (Bama).
>
> 2) Yes, most of the money has come in on Bama but the
> line has only moved one point, which means it isn’t a
> ton of volume money. Bunch of people laying $20 bets
> for the fun of it.
>
> Watch the line the last 72 hours. My guess, it goes
> back to the 1.5.

That's fascinating. I don't bet; it sounds like you might. That lack of line shift you mention interests me because it implies that my initial post was actual wrong - the sharps are actually not hitting Alabama.

Do you think then the most of the sharps are waiting for the line to move, and are going to hammer the spread late?

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Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 14, 2017, 8:08 PM

I am a recreational bettor. I don’t think you’re wrong, but the 8-to-1 bets for Bama is a bit misleading. My guess, the sharps are not part of that figure, and why would they with still 2.5 weeks to go (suspensions, injuries, etc...). It also could mean that a few sharps are betting Clemson and balancing the line.

Alabama isn’t quite like the Dallas Cowboys in Vegas, but their name alone causes unusual betting action.

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Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 14, 2017, 8:28 PM [ in reply to Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama ]

I'm pretty sure the bulk of "sharps" come in much closer to game day. They try to avoid any uncontrollable circumstances, such as last minute practice injuries, weather, etc

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Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 15, 2017, 7:07 AM [ in reply to Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama ]

Most of the professional (sharps as you call them) did and have laid their money on Bama. At least to this point they have.

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Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 15, 2017, 7:26 AM

IMO a bunch of $20 bets won't change a Vegas line. Maybe a local small time book.

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Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 14, 2017, 8:25 PM

This line is ENTIRELY brand name. If Bama had played like Clemson the past month-plus, and vice versa, Bama would be favored by 11.5 points or more. It is ludicrous that Bama is favored in this game (just as it was ludicrous that Ohio St. was favored last year), and the game will show that.

The Clemson brand has been building in recent years, obviosuly, and we will not get many more opportunities to take advantage of silly line like this. The only brand out there that could make a line this silly is Bama's. So jump on this now Tiger fans!

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Heavy money always comes in late.


Dec 14, 2017, 11:03 PM

Line will move near game time. Which way? I don't know, but that is when the "sharps" bet.

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Re: Heavy money always comes in late.


Dec 14, 2017, 11:42 PM

Yup. Late money is the bellwether. “Homerism” does not shift the line. A betting public that is very familiar- and trusting of- Alabama does.

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When was the last time we were favored in the post season?


Dec 14, 2017, 11:54 PM

Vegas, sharps, whomever... I don't think it really matters to our guys.

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Re: When was the last time we were favored in the post season?


Dec 15, 2017, 12:33 AM

I'd say in the 2012 Orange Bowl versus West Virginia.

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Well, if that's the case, I don't ever want to be favored


Dec 15, 2017, 6:47 AM

again.

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Re: Well, if that's the case, I don't ever want to be favored


Dec 15, 2017, 7:35 AM

Vegas sets the odds to attract the money from the biggest following. That isn't and seldom will be Clemson. It's to draw the big alumni schools to the windows to lay down their $. It's all about Vegas winning...nothing to do with the predicted outcome.

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"Bama will be as good as ever when they LB's return to play"


Dec 15, 2017, 7:09 AM

The real problem with that logic is that with or without Francswaah FSU is not a top ten team. Imo, the reference point people set for Bama being great is dependent on FSU being great. FSU was never shown as a great team. There was plenty of preseason hype to generate interest in the Bama/FSU game but hyping games is how ESPiN makes a living.

Losing so many players at LB is spooky but not near as strange and suspicious as half a dozen of Alabama's opponents changing coaches. There's something strange in their neighborhood.

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Re: Curious what the sharps are looking at with us and Bama


Dec 15, 2017, 10:09 AM

FWIW, it has been reported that this is in fact Sharps betting, not just $20 bets walking through the door.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/21739103/college-football-playoff-early-sharp-action-alabama-rematch-clemson

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Watson's stellar NFL performance may be an influence...


Dec 15, 2017, 10:10 AM

I think it's as simple as thinking Watson was a generational talent that we no longer have.

They probably also don't trust Kelly Bryant vs Saban's D with a month to prepare.

The sharps shouldn't fall for this stuff, but they do.

A lot of them just haven't watched Clemson play. We see this all the time with the big name sports writers in college and NFL.

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I think the bigger question is how does Bama score...


Dec 15, 2017, 10:31 AM

So they get their LBs back healthy... That doesn't matter when they have the ball. Was it 7 or 8 straight 3-and-outs last time...?

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