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All-TigerNet [10121]
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Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long)
Dec 26, 2018, 5:01 AM
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May be old news although haven’t seen it discussed. Sbnation author Bud Elliott has defined a term he calls the Blue Chip Ratio (BCR) which is the ratio of number of 4- & 5-Star recruits on a team to total number of recruits. His research has found that a team must have a BCR > 50 to be a legitimate national championship contender. In an August 2018 article he postulated that this year’s champion would come from the following list of teams:
TEAM BLUE-CHIPS
Alabama 77%
Ohio State 76%
USC 71%
Georgia 69%
Florida State 67%
LSU 63%
Auburn 62%
Clemson 61%
Michigan 57%
Texas 55%
Oklahoma 53%
Penn State 53%
Notre Dame 51%
And - lo and behold the 4 teams in this year’s CFP have BCR’s ranging from 51% to 77%. He claims that he has checked this theory for the last decade or so and in every instance the winner’s BCR has been > 50%. The 4 participants in the CFP last year were also on this list of 13 with slightly different ratios. Clemson has been stepping up its game in the last few years as its BCR has increased from 51 or 52 four years ago to 61 this year. - . Of course character, coaching, development etc are also important but Elliott claims BCR is the overriding factor. In other words - you aren’t going to be National Champion without elite Jimmies and Joes,
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Asst Coach [726]
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Re: Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long)
Dec 26, 2018, 6:52 AM
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I’ve been following this ratio for years and I love it. Should be a good indication of what type of coaches a program has as well. How USC is at 71% and as bad as they are (in the crappy PAC12) is mind blowing.
And fans who say recruiting and stars don’t matter are typically below the 50% threshold.
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110%er [6095]
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real USC. Sometimes I wonder if school name beside
Dec 26, 2018, 7:16 AM
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Recruits commitment increases their star rating. I think real USC may suffer from that. Perhaps USC recruits were just over rated because of name brand.
Message was edited by: tigertrain®
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Orange Blooded [3839]
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How is FSWho so high and suck so bad
Dec 26, 2018, 8:01 AM
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coaching..My son in law the semihole thinks they are going to be great with the Briles. He did put up good numbers in the big 12.
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All-TigerNet [10121]
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Re: Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long)
Dec 26, 2018, 10:53 PM
[ in reply to Re: Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long) ] |
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Just recently came across this but think it’s a pretty good metric. Would be interesting to break it down further like by units and see if some seem to be more critical than others..,.,
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All-TigerNet [10805]
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Re: Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long)
Dec 26, 2018, 11:01 PM
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Can you imagine having 71% blue chips like the real USC and not even being good enough to play in a bowl game? As bad as some of these teams are, it has to be emabarraing to the program.
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Orange Blooded [3612]
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Re: Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long)
Dec 26, 2018, 11:06 PM
[ in reply to Re: Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long) ] |
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I wonder that, too.
Are QBs more valuable? Who's next, maybe DEs and CBs and WRs? Or do you prioritize the trenches of OT and DT?
And what good is a 4-star if he isn't starting, or if he's always hurt, like at u5c?
This ratio also explains why some teams are highly ranked in the preseason without having earned it. That just allows them farther to fall when they underperform.
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Legend [16186]
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Re: Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long)
Dec 27, 2018, 8:26 AM
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Well, duh.
You need good players to be successful in college football. Thank you, Mr. Einstein.
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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Re: Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long)
Dec 27, 2018, 8:44 AM
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You should tell that to the “stars don’t matter” crowd” because there’s a lot of them here
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Orange Blooded [2274]
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Re: Blue Chip Ratio and National Champions (long)
Dec 27, 2018, 9:47 AM
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Just looking but will this years class bring our number down. We have 13 five and four stars and we have 13 3's.
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Orange Blooded [2217]
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Depends on the final additions
Dec 27, 2018, 10:42 AM
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But that was to be expected with such a large class. The goal is to have more blue chips than not but adding 14-15 this class is still a good number. This year we had the flexibility to take a few developmental guys that we normally wouldn’t take because of the big numbers which I like.
My general philosophy on those types of prospects is that if you’re adding them to complement the blue chip guys you already have and you have time to bring them along then it’s a good add. If you’re relying on them for instant impact as most of your class, it’s not a positive sign. Luckily we’re in the first category.
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Orange Blooded [4896]
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Would be interesting if the ratio could be calculated retro-
Dec 27, 2018, 10:29 AM
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spectively and only include players that started a majority of the season on offense or defense. I think our relative % would be much higher compared to other teams. Alabama and others have a lot of high star kids that transfer or never play for other reasons and we give out what appears to be a higher number of scholarships to "legacy" kids. At the end of the day its the kids that play that matter. I think our coaches are doing it right - we're getting the 4 and 5 stars that usually work out and finding some diamonds in the rough.
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