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YOUR BALANCE
Bill Connelly's Clemson preview went up this morning
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Bill Connelly's Clemson preview went up this morning


Jul 27, 2018, 9:01 AM

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/7/27/17561820/clemson-football-2018-preview-schedule-roster

I like looking at the offensive and defensive radars. Our defense was outstanding at virtually everything last year. Our worst defensive stat was stuff rate, but we were still pretty good at it and a healthy Dexter Lawrence will make a pretty difference there as well. Almost every other stat ranked in the top 20 and quite a few were top 5-10.

The offense was very good at some things and really, really bad at others. The rushing attack was very good across the board, and the offense was very efficient overall. Surprisingly, we were one of the worst teams in the entire country on 1st downs averaging just 5.2 yards per play. Not surprisingly, we were almost dead last in the country in yards per completion and around of the bottom 1/3rd in sack rate.

We were also the least explosive team in the ACC (somehow behind even teams like UVA and BC) and one of the least explosive in the entire country. I know our offense under the new coordinators is based more around efficiency (and we did very well in that again this year) than explosiveness, but with the athletes we have on the team there's really no reason we shouldn't be generating some more big plays.

There's also a really nice bit on Etienne in there:

"Etienne’s got elite potential from both an efficiency and explosiveness standpoint.

-170 FBS running backs carried at least 100 times last year.
-17 had a marginal explosiveness of plus-0.08 points per play or higher.
-Four had a marginal efficiency of plus-9 percent or higher.
-One had both: Etienne.

Granted, if he takes on a heavier load, those rate stats might shrink. But his potential is off the charts, and it’s hard to see Clemson’s No. 13 ranking in rushing success rate falling at all in 2018, especially when you take Bryant’s running ability and an excellent line into account.
"

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Re: Bill Connelly's Clemson preview went up this morning


Jul 27, 2018, 9:21 AM

Bill Connelly always has fantastic previews. He's a huge stat nerd, so it really lays everything out there in black & white. Unfortunately his "Offense Radar" for 2017 really shows how lacking the offense was when it came to passing/explosiveness.



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Re: Bill Connelly's Clemson preview went up this morning


Jul 27, 2018, 9:43 AM

Oh, but wait...aren't we all coots for saying that when discussing Bryant?? Though interesting, looks like uh oh...for all those KB pumpers out there...looks like stat guru Connelly is saying the same thing WE are.

Well, I'll be darned...could have swore after reading all these TNet guys jumping down some of our throats that he'd put out a review that said KB had "one of the best passer ratings over 20 yards in the ACC", or "his passing stats weren't that bad", or "but he took them to the playoffs...bown down to what he accomplished".

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Yes and no. I didn't read the article, but from


Jul 27, 2018, 10:46 AM

What is posted here all the dude is doing is posting a bunch of stats.

Yes that is what you coots are doing as well.

I don know if the writer is using those stats to make ignorant, ill-informed conclusions on how or what the coaches and players should do. So that may be different.

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Geville Tiger on Clemson football , "Dabo's only problem is he has to deal with turd fans questioning every move he makes.”


Re: Yes and no. I didn't read the article, but from


Jul 27, 2018, 10:55 AM

"Just posting a bunch of stats"...well, sort of. They're advanced stats which considers situational football, garbage time, etc.

He does bring up the offense's lack of overall explosiveness and effectiveness in the passing game, but he also says that since our defense was so good, the offense wasn't taking big risks very often. He doesn't put a much pure opinion into the piece. It's very good, you should take the 5 minutes to read it.

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5 mins?


Jul 27, 2018, 11:18 AM

Would probably take me more like 30.

2024 white level memberbadge-donor-05yr.jpg flag link military_tech thumb_downthumb_up

Geville Tiger on Clemson football , "Dabo's only problem is he has to deal with turd fans questioning every move he makes.”


Re: Yes and no. I didn't read the article, but from


Jul 27, 2018, 11:00 AM [ in reply to Yes and no. I didn't read the article, but from ]

1. I'm not a coot...I'm an alumni. Quite sure you go back enough, you'll see a post where I posted my class ring years back.
2. TL is a Tiger just like KB, so supporting QB#2 does not make you a coot. Acting like others can't have an opinion basing on real stats though is. Sorry if those stats don't agree with your support of him, but they are his stats. And they aren't all flowers and perfume like you think. Let me know when he holds those stats vs a 10-0 undefeated FSU like Boyd or Watson did, not a 3-6 FSU, then we'll talk.
3. No one said what coaches should do....they said what they think the coaches will end up doing at some point in the season IF Bryant's passing doesn't improve from what was seen last season AND the spring game....same as Connelly says every time he says something about "if he can stave off Lawrence" Maybe you need to re-take some comprehension classes.

Here's lets' start with some points in his write up:

Kelly Bryant became a less effective runner as he took more and more hits. Still, he’s a good runner, and he shares a backfield with a bunch of former four-star recruits: junior Tavien Feaster, sophomore Travis Etienne, senior Adam Choice, and incoming freshman Lyn-J Dixon.

There really wasn’t an excuse, then, for how bad Clemson was on first downs last year. The Tigers averaged just 5.2 yards per play on those downs, 109th in the country and 10th in the ACC.

Bryant averaged just 10.7 yards per completion, and Clemson ranked just 119th in IsoPPP (which measures the magnitude of your successful plays).

At some point, Bryant’s going to have to pass, though. And that will probably determine whether he gets to keep his job. Lawrence showed plenty of his five-star potential this spring, and Bryant’s 131.7 passer rating last year was much closer to that of Cole Stoudt (who started for part of 2014 before losing his job to a freshman Watson) than Watson or Boyd. On third-and-7 or more, he completed just 51 percent of his passes with one touchdown, two interceptions, and a 111.4 passer rating — not terrible in those circumstances, but maybe not good enough for a title contender.

And if Bryant is able to get him the ball downfield, that might stave off Lawrence.

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Re: Yes and no. I didn't read the article, but from


Jul 27, 2018, 7:04 PM

Wow, that 3rd and 7 or more stat is pretty damning......had no idea it was that bad. Also, I knew we weren't great on 1st down last year for whatever reason. I'm certain some of that had to do with poor blocking by the TE.

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Screw Calford.


Nothing Bill Connelly does is ignorant or ill-informed


Jul 27, 2018, 11:44 AM [ in reply to Yes and no. I didn't read the article, but from ]

He's very well informed, very intelligent, and one of the most unbiased people covering CFB. And the article is definitely not a hatchet job on Kelly Bryant if that's what you think.

It's worth reading, especially if you are going to comment on it.

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Wilkins and Bryant returning, "OH, COME ON"


Jul 27, 2018, 9:59 AM

Love it! Go Tigers!

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Re: Bill Connelly's Clemson preview went up this morning


Jul 27, 2018, 10:03 AM

This was a really well written article. The only thing he didn't know about was Simmons moving to LB to fill Odaniels spot.

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Re: Bill Connelly's Clemson preview went up this morning


Jul 27, 2018, 10:11 AM

Impressive job with those stats, but you know what, I know what I know about our O without a single stat. I just know what I see, and it needs some work.

I also know our D is off the freaking charts in a good/great way. OC's will shudder trying to play our D. And again - I don't need a single stat to know that.

But that being said, I appreciate the thorough job with those stats.

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Stats are still valuable for either verifying what your


Jul 27, 2018, 10:38 AM

eyes are seeing or providing insights on things that aren't that easy to pick up while just watching a game.

For example, i think quite a few people were down on our OL last year, but they actually performed very well in every relevant OL stat except for sack rate. Given the fact that they were one of the best units in the country in sack rate in 2015 and 2016 with Watson at QB, the sack rate issue last year was probably just as much Kelly Bryant as it was the OL.

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Re: Stats are still valuable for either verifying what your


Jul 27, 2018, 11:04 AM

I’d like to see the Tigers spread the field more this season. I believe the coaches are somewhat concerned about turnovers with a new guy calling signals. Last years team was really good at keeping possession of the ball. I haven’t seen a stat on turnovers but I expect it was fairly low. KB had a few ints. but not a lot.

I would like to see us really improve on special teams and we should with the talent available. Kick returns are one of the real exciting plays in football and we aren’t as good as I would like! Field position is vital and we have been better than average I believe. Don’t you believe the entire kicking game will be better this year? Heugels return should help if he is 100%.

I have a feeling that we will see a different team offensively this year than we fielded in 2017. Perhaps a little more “wide open” with the backs and receivers available, regardless of the qb.

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Re: Stats are still valuable for either verifying what your


Jul 27, 2018, 11:20 AM

Turnover Margin.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/2018/team/29
Clemson #43.

Turnovers lost:
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/2018/team/461
Clemson 39th (tied for 34)


Turnovers gained
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/2018/team/460/p2
Clemson #53 (tied for 50)

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This is exactly why stats are stupid, especially


Jul 27, 2018, 11:13 AM [ in reply to Stats are still valuable for either verifying what your ]

In the hands of novices.

Example:
Stat

"Given the fact that they were one of the best units in the country in sack rate in 2015 and 2016 with Watson at QB"

Used to validate an I'll informed conclusion/ agenda

" the sack rate issue last year was probably just as much Kelly Bryant as it was the OL."

Reality :
Could be a result of coaching, play calling, running backs, inexperience, wide receivers, field position, grass height, moon gravity..etc.

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Geville Tiger on Clemson football , "Dabo's only problem is he has to deal with turd fans questioning every move he makes.”


Re: This is exactly why stats are stupid, especially


Jul 27, 2018, 11:27 AM

...QB not being as elusive...QB running into the line and not finding a hole....

QB standing in a spot and getting clobbered by several teams (eventually leading to being on a concussion protocol) and not being able to do this instead:


^yes, that's Watson.


You can dodge it all you want, but Brant did do some things that did lead to him getting sacked.

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Thank you again for proving my point.


Jul 27, 2018, 11:42 AM

You have an agenda and selectively choosing facts to push that agenda.

For instance, you completely ignore all the other attributes that contribute to sacks and focus only on 1.

You then try to use the fact the watson and bRyant are two different human beings.

You also keep trying to win some sort of fictitips debate with me. Let me help you.

I don't care who the coaches play. I'm just a fan. I don't chose the players, I don chose the plays, nor.do i want to. I have no desire to be a Sunday , quarterback coach.

I don't try to over simplify football. If a team wins a LOT of stuff has to go right. If a team loses , a lot of things could have gone wrong
It is never 1 play or 1 guy.


I'm one of the few who says he trusts the coaches, and actually trusts the coaches.

My job is simple..donate, buy tickets, ..show up and cheer..

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Geville Tiger on Clemson football , "Dabo's only problem is he has to deal with turd fans questioning every move he makes.”


Re: Thank you again for proving my point.


Jul 27, 2018, 11:58 AM

You forgot "being condescending at anyone's opinion on looking at real game and season stats to support discussions" and "being condescending at anyone who states they haven't seen any improvement to warrant thinking he'll stay the QB through the season".

Why do you think I'm "selectively choosing facts"...well, when the facts back up the discussion (the discussion has always been about Bryant's passing) maybe they are just that...the facts, not an opinion. There is no selective in it. Plain and simple, his downfield passing on all 3 areas of the field was terrible. The stats show that. The stats show he is good on the right side 10-20 yards, good on short passes, terrible on blind side passes 10-20 yards, and terrible on downfield passes 20 yds plus regardless what direction it goes.

I have no agenda, other than a real discussion about the guy coming out of the spring as the #1 QB and what he has shown thus far for 3 seasons (1 full) of play, showed yet again in the spring game....that his passing needs to improve if he wants to go far through the playoffs, or maybe even the season depending on how Taggart's first year goes.

Kelly Bryant FACTS:


Not even top 70 in QB rating:
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/player-stat/qb-rating-ncaa

Not in the top 80 is passing TD's:
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/player-stat/passing-touchdowns

Not in the top 40 in passing yards:
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/player-stat/passing-gross-yards

Not in the top 100 in rushing yards nor rushing yards per attempt :
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/player-stat/rushing-net-yards
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/player-stat/rushing-yards-per-attempt
(12 QB's listed in this...Hurts is one of them, Bryant is not)

Not in the top 40 in rushing TD's (not even top 10 of WB's listed):
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/player-stat/rushing-touchdowns


Only thing he is in top 30 of is Completions Percentage...and well, that might be because he throws short passes all day long...as the stat pic above even shows.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/player-stat/completion-percentage

Kelly Bryant rushing:
192 attempts for 665 yards...3.5 yd/att average
http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/stats/_/id/3728240/kelly-bryant
Kelly Bryant
Get the latest updated stats for Clemson Tigers quarterback Kelly Bryant on ESPN.com.


Travis Etienne rushing:
107 attempts for 766 yards...7.2 yd/att average... Which would have been good for 9th in the nation.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/stats/_/id/4239996/travis-etienne

Now that covers passing AND rushing...is there anything else I'm missing?? Sorry, but facts are facts. He wasn't even the team's best rusher either...he just carried the ball the most.

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Good lord man***


Jul 27, 2018, 11:30 AM [ in reply to This is exactly why stats are stupid, especially ]



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Re: Good lord man***


Jul 27, 2018, 11:34 AM

He's still on his African safari trip...hasn't come off his river cruise on "D-Nial" yet.

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I'm fine with him disagreeing. I'm well aware of his


Jul 27, 2018, 11:36 AM

opinions at this point and i know we aren't going to agree on a number of things, but it would be nice if he didn't do so in the most condescending and obnoxious way possible.

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So what happens to our running game if TL starts...


Jul 27, 2018, 11:09 AM

dropping 25+ yard bombs? Do opponents defense back up to keep us from scoring or do they crash the line?

Maybe I should have said 'when TL starts dropping bombs...'

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Re: So what happens to our running game if TL starts...


Jul 27, 2018, 11:30 AM

Safeties and linebackers stay back more, and don't crowd the line...which would help the running game even more at the line of scrimmage. I don;t care if it's Bryant, Etienne, Choice, or Feaster...team with a strong enough defense can crowd the line and stop the run game for all runners, RB and QB alike. Only a passing game will open it back up .

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I guess the best


Jul 27, 2018, 6:58 PM

Offense is one that keeps the opponents defense guessing with each snap. The QB who can do all those things will be the one with the most success. Our Tigers have super running backs and super receivers so who is most capable of utilizing all this talent? Us tigernetters can guess but only Dabo and his staff knows the answer. Or,hopefully, they soon will. Personally, I don’t think a great qb who has the ability to make the downfield passes is the answer. Nor do I think that we can rely on a running qb with Feaster and Choice and Etienne to help carry the load. You can bet the farm that Coach Dabo will do what is best for the TEAM. I can’t waiy

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Re: I guess the best


Jul 27, 2018, 8:24 PM

To me, we need the QB that can make the throws that are there and the throws that are needed to back off the defense and make them play honest. We don't need a running QB, just an an elusive one that can extend the plays. The running back group is stronger than it has been in quite a while... They can take the running game and get involved in the passing game as long as we have a QB that can extend the plays for them. Whether that's Bryant or Lawrence is yet to be seen, but that's what it'll take to get the high powered offense back.

We won't do it by turning into a running offense with mostly short throws another season.... Teams will clue in on that faster and scheme to stop it. And it's not like NC State, FSU, Duke and a few others don't have decent defenses recently to do it... Most of which were top 50 in total and rushing defense last year. BC hasn't had bad defenses either... It's usually their offense that's their issue. Last year's defense wasn't as strong though so not sure how that bleeds into this year for BC.

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I'M Sorry


Jul 27, 2018, 11:43 AM

but who is Bill Connelly?

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Re: I'M Sorry


Jul 27, 2018, 11:54 AM

A very good college football writer/stat guy. I believe he either created, or had a role in creating, the S&P+ advanced stat metric. It's one of the most useful stats out there.

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Re: I'M Sorry


Jul 27, 2018, 12:06 PM [ in reply to I'M Sorry ]

Correct...the guy that created the S&P+ metrics system for NCAA and NFL both...which is fairly accurate every year for getting advanced stats throughout a year. Regarded as one of the more accurate stat systems out there...as it removes garbage time stuff and all of the BS that can skew stats.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/

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Re: Bill Connelly's Clemson preview went up this morning


Jul 27, 2018, 12:09 PM

I LOVE that he makes mention of something that a poster said yesterday when the video surfaced of the ACC's best defensive lines --- that both our 1st AND 2nd string lines would be ranked among the top 10 lines in the country.

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