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Who is the best conference? These numbers don't lie...
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All-TigerNet [12274]
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Who is the best conference? These numbers don't lie...
Oct 30, 2017, 2:35 PM
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In concert with my earlier who is beating winners vs beating losers post I decided to look at the overall winners/losers by conference to see which conference has the most teams with winning records. Here is what I found from most to least overall winning team records by conference:
ACC: 64% of teams have overall winning records
PAC 12: 58% of teams have overall winning records
SEC: 57% of teams have overall winning records
Big 10: 50% of teams have overall winning records
Big 12: 50% of teams have overall winning records
Looking at this same dynamic but only looking at intra-conference records we get the following:
Big 12: 60% of teams have winning records in conference only games
SEC: 57% of teams have winning records in conference only games
PAC 12: 50% of teams have winning records in conference only games
Big 10: 50% of teams have winning records in conference only games
ACC: 35% of teams have winning records in conference only games
What is interesting is that the ACC has the most teams with overall winning records but the fewest winning teams within conference only play. This indicates a couple of things about the ACC: The ACC has a few teams that are dominanting in conference games and the majority of ACC teams are winning their out of conference games. The Big 10 and SEC have the same winning teams regardless of in/out of conference play; the PAC 12 has slightly more winning teams (i.e. just Colorado) when including out of conference play; and the Big 12 has one more winning team from strictly conference play (i.e. Texas) than they have when including out of conference games. What I glean from all of this is the following:
1. The ACC is clearly the best conference based on the number of overall record of winning teams.
2. The Big 10 is way over-hyped based on both overall and conference record winning team metrics. They have no better conference winning record than the very average to mediocre Big 12.
3. The SEC is slightly above average (but consistent across it's in/out of conference games) in regards to overall conference strength.
4. The PAC 12 is slightly above average but should be considered ahead of the Big 10 and Big 12.
Just for fun - the best Conference Division with the most overall winning teams is the ACC Atlantic with 71% of teams have an overall winning record. The worst Conference Division a tie - both the SEC East and Big 10 West only have 3 teams with a winning record for a whopping 43% winning team record.
One final note... The AP poll is obviously biased to a large degree but wins/losses translated to conference strength and quality of wins doesn't lie. I sure hope the CFPC looks at the reality of Conference strength and not the hype put forth by organizations with agendas...
Here is the data for those that care to view:
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All-TigerNet [10427]
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Nice research... but a couple questions
Oct 30, 2017, 2:50 PM
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How is this data skewed by the fact that the Big 10, Big 12, and Pac-12 all play 9 conference games vs. 8 for the ACC and SEC? [The ACC and SEC will have more out of conference opportunities for wins.]
Further, how is this data skewed by the fact that the Big 10 and the Pac-12 don't permit their teams to play FCS opponents? [The other 3 conferences will have more non-Power 5 and even FCS games mixed into their results.]
Perhaps you could do this same analysis but eliminate first all of FCS games and then use only Power-5 games.
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All-TigerNet [12274]
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Re: Nice research... but a couple questions
Oct 30, 2017, 3:18 PM
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I used percentages to account for the difference in games played and number of teams in some conferences to keep everyone on a level playing field. 50% of teams in the Big 12 would be 5 as where 50% of teams in the ACC would be 7. By using percentages it keeps it all conference stats relative to one another...
Instead of looking at only Power 5 games, I opted to look at in conference records (which are in fact Power 5 opponent only games) because that data was readily available. I have not had the time to comb through all the individual schedules to pull out the non-Power 5 competition. Maybe I'll do that later on but I do think the overall records provide a good basis of understanding. All Power 5 conferences schedule FCS and non-Power 5 OOC games and I tend to think these are mostly a "wash" when the final comparison statistics are compiled. Some conferences may get a slight bump from this but would not think it would be so great as to put another conference at a disadvantage since most teams in the Power 5 have a couple of cupcake "gimmies" on their schedule.
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110%er [6281]
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Re: Who is the best conference? These numbers don't lie...
Oct 30, 2017, 2:54 PM
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NC ST lost to SC and GT lost to Tennessee. Clemson did beat Auburn. Bama beat FSU. Not saying i do not agree with you but those games do not help the argument.
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All-TigerNet [12274]
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Re: Who is the best conference? These numbers don't lie...
Oct 30, 2017, 3:32 PM
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> NC ST lost to SC and GT lost to Tennessee. Clemson
> did beat Auburn. Bama beat FSU. Not saying i do not
> agree with you but those games do not help the
> argument.
The purpose of this drill was to look at the whole body of work and not individual games. To me the problem we have right now is that some group of biased sports writers make a ranking determination and give more credence to certain wins/losses without looking at the whole body of work. Consider Ohio State - they have played and won a majority schedule against losing teams, got smoked at home by Oklahoma, and managed to beat a good Penn State team in a 4th quarter comeback. Ohio State has only beaten two teams with a winning record (i.e. Army and Penn State) - and while the Penn State win is a "good win" should Ohio State now jump 3 spots (from 6 to 3rd) based on that one win? We see this too often in the sports writers polls (remember the Ole Miss and Miss State rankings a few years ago) where each week some team beats a perceived top team, skyrockets up the polls, only to fall in the weeks that follow. To me the better way of looking at things is to consider the body of work in context of multiple games and not a one game season.
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110%er [6281]
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Re: Who is the best conference? These numbers don't lie...
Oct 30, 2017, 4:22 PM
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I agree and I believe most acc teams are better than Tennessee but that does not change the head to head factor of it. I would not say any conference is better than another this year. They all seem to have their top teams and teams that are not so hot.
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Rock Defender [54]
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Re: Who is the best conference? These numbers don't lie...
Oct 30, 2017, 4:09 PM
[ in reply to Re: Who is the best conference? These numbers don't lie... ] |
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Being "the best conference" also requires sustained success over a period of time. Over the past 4 years, the ACC has set a trend. In 4 years, the ACC has seen an unprecedented, and historic, winning streak.
The conference has taken home 80% of all college football awards in that time, taking home every single award in 2014.
The ACC has won 2 of the last Heismans.
Appeared in 3 of the last national title games.
Won 2 of the last 4 national title games.
Participated in the College Football Playoff every year of its existence.
Won more playoff games than any other conference, with Clemson leading the nation in all time playoff wins.
Sent a record number of teams to bowl games in 2014, and then broke that record while also setting a record for bowl wins a year later I believe.
The ACC has dominated out of conference matchups.
The ACC has dominated key rivalries and OOC matchups against their "rival" conference, also touted as the "best" conference of the 2000's, which was the SEC.
The ACC has dominated the draft, with the SEC only having a slight margin more players drafted to the NFL in the last 4 years. Even then, look at the performance of SEC draft picks vs ACC draft picks. The ACC wins that debate every time.
The ACC also features the best carousel of coaches in the country, having 2 coaches that have won championships, and more coaches that have among the highest winning percentages among active coaches.
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All-TigerNet [12270]
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coots ain't gonna like this***
Oct 30, 2017, 3:29 PM
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Legend [17837]
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Even with Rutgers, Big10 East best division.
Oct 30, 2017, 3:56 PM
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As far as conference overall, I dont care.
What I do care about are people stating that polls are biased.
Yes, of course they are biased.
They are polls. Based on opinions.
And "tabbyplague" is a very good screen name.
Message was edited by: ninetytwotiger®
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Trainer [29]
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Re: Who is the best conference? These numbers don't lie...
Oct 30, 2017, 4:32 PM
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Neat research but I wouldn’t make any conclusions from it. Your reasearch essentially counts Georgia who is 8-0 with a top 50 SOS as Virginia who is 5-3 with a sub 150 SOS.
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Orange Blooded [2746]
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Remember...it's not PC on TNet to care about ur conference.***
Oct 30, 2017, 5:24 PM
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