110%er [5579]
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Updated bracketology analysis
1
Feb 7, 2023, 12:05 PM
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ESPN/Lunardi published an updated bracket projection today. I’ve compared Clemson to the last 4 in and first 8 out to see where we stand comparatively.
Details for each of those 12 teams are below. As you can see, only one of them has 2 quad 4 losses. That is Utah St, whose NET is 33. Those 2 losses, despite the very strong NET, have them 6 spots out of the tournament. There is only one team on the bubble with a lower NET than us – Wisconsin. They have zero Q3+Q4 losses. There are no at-large selections with two quad 4 losses in the bracket.
The first team out, Texas A&M, has a similar record, significantly stronger NET, and fewer Q4 losses. Based on these comparative resumes, I do not think Lunardi would have us in the bracket if we were not leading the ACC and thus a temporary “automatic qualifier” based on current standings. And, if Virginia wins tonight, we will not be leading the ACC.
In parentheses: NET Ranking, Overall Record, Q3 losses, Q4 losses
CLEMSON (64, 18-6, 1, 2)
Last Four In:
Boise State (26, 17-6, 1, 1)
Oklahoma St (36, 14-9, 1, 0)
Nevada (34, 17-6, 0, 0)
Memphis (47, 17-6, 1, 0)
First Four Out:
Texas A&M (40, 16-7, 1, 1)
Florida (43, 13-10, 0, 0)
Seton Hall (53, 14-9, 1, 0)
Oregon (54, 14-10, 2, 0)
Next Four Out:
Wisconsin (77, 13-9, 0, 0)
Utah St (33, 18-5, 0, 2)
Charleston (62, 21-3, 2, 0)
Penn St (58, 14-9, 0, 0)
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Legend [17027]
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Re: Updated bracketology analysis
Feb 7, 2023, 12:09 PM
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I've pointed out to the pumpers many times - since 2018 when NET when into effect I don't see anyone that has gotten an at large bid with more than 1 Quad 4 loss. Is Clemson really the kind of basketball program that the NCAA tourney committee is going to rewrite the standards for?
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110%er [5579]
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Re: Updated bracketology analysis
Feb 7, 2023, 12:23 PM
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Forgot to mention - we are projected as an 11-seed automatic qualifier currently, facing Providence.
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110%er [5579]
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Update, one week later
Feb 14, 2023, 9:14 AM
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Now that we are not in an automatic qualifier position, we get a better idea of where we truly fall in the at-large conversation. Here is the latest from Lunardi:
In parentheses: NET Ranking, Overall Record, Q3 losses, Q4 losses
CLEMSON (77, 18-7, 1, 2)
We are currently projected as the last team into the tournament, as an 11-seed, in a play-in game.
Last Four In:
Mississippi State (40, 17-8, 0, 0)
North Carolina (46, 16-10, 0, 0)
New Mexico (48, 18-6, 3, 0)
Clemson
First Four Out:
Oregon (50, 15-11, 2, 0) - up 3 spots from last week
Kentucky (45, 16-9, 0, 1)
USC (64, 17-8, 2, 0)
Wisconsin (80, 14-10, 0, 0) - up 1 spot from last week
Next Four Out:
Charleston (55, 24-3, 2, 0) - up 2 spots from last week
Arizona St (65, 18-8, 0, 1)
Seton Hall (62, 14-11, 1, 0) - down 4 spots from last week
Utah (52, 17-9, 1, 0)
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110%er [5579]
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Update Feb 17
Feb 17, 2023, 9:26 AM
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Going into this weekend, Lunardi still has us as the last team into the field. Our blowout win over FSU did not bump us off of that line, but a loss surely would have dropped us out of the field. Here's the updated comparison:
In parentheses: NET Ranking, Overall Record, Q3 losses, Q4 losses
CLEMSON (66, 19-7, 1, 2)
We are currently projected as the last team into the tournament, as an 11-seed, in a play-in game vs Wisconsin.
Last Four In:
Kentucky (39, 17-9, 0, 1) - up 5 spots since last update
North Carolina (45, 16-10, 0, 0) - up 1 spot
Wisconsin (74, 15-10, 0, 0) - up 5 spots
Clemson
First Four Out:
Mississippi State (44, 17-9, 0, 0)
USC (57, 18-8, 2, 0) - up 1 spot
Oregon (50, 15-12, 2, 0) - down 2 spots
Charleston (52, 25-3, 2, 0) - up 1 spot
Next Four Out:
New Mexico (53, 18-7, 3, 1) - down 6 spots
Seton Hall (67, 15-11, 1, 0) - up 1 spot
Utah St (37, 19-7, 0, 2) - replaced Arizona St
Wake Forest(75, 17-9, 2, 0) - replaced Utah
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Freshman [9]
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Re: Updated bracketology analysis
1
Feb 14, 2023, 9:19 AM
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If we do not make the NCAA Tournament BB shoukld be fired!!! Period
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All-TigerNet [14357]
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Re: Updated bracketology analysis
2
Feb 17, 2023, 10:02 AM
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I still feel like we need to go 4-1 the rest of the way to get in. We can afford a loss to UVA but we need to beat everyone else. If we go 3-2 we probably need to win at least 1 if not 2 ACC Tournament games. Some will argue if we finish 4th in the regular season that will be good enough but I don't trust the process and would like a little cushion.
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Orange Blooded [2738]
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Re: Updated bracketology analysis
Feb 17, 2023, 10:31 AM
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I feel similar.
24 wins would be the magic number and lock us in to the big dance.
Finishing with 22-23 wins will be borderline but may be just enough depending on the wins and losses.
Less than 22 and it's most likely NIT bound and Tigernet will gather into crowds with pitchforks and torches if BB isn't fired immediately.
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110%er [5579]
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Update Feb 19 - night night NCAAT chances
Feb 19, 2023, 4:19 PM
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Updated bubble teams below. We dropped from last team in to the next 4 out, and it's a miracle we are on the list at all.
In parentheses: NET Ranking, Overall Record, Q3 losses, Q4 losses
CLEMSON (80, 19-8, 1, 3)
Last Four In:
Mississippi State (42, 18-9, 0, 0) - up 4 spots since last update
West Virginia (32, 15-12, 0, 0) - dropped for Kentucky
USC (57, 19-8, 1, 1) - up 3 spots
Wisconsin (76, 15-11, 0, 0) - down 1 spot
First Four Out:
North Carolina (44, 16-10, 0, 0) - down 3 spots
Charleston (52, 25-3, 2, 0) - up 2 spots
Oregon (49, 15-12, 1, 0) - no change
New Mexico (48, 19-7, 3, 1) - up 1 spot
Next Four Out:
Utah St (35, 20-7, 0, 2) - up 2 spots
Clemson - down 6 spots
Arizona St (70, 19-9, 0, 1) - replaced Seton Hall
Penn St (60, 16-11, 1, 0) - replaced Utah
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