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Replies: 22
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Hall of Famer [22392]
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If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 8:36 PM
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4 ACC schools are voting against expansion and talks are continuing, then maybe - just maybe - the talks are centered around this:
How much would it cost for you to let us 4 schools leave the conference?
500 million.
That's too much. Let us walk away and pay nothing and we're gone.
400 million.
That's too much. You know we're leaving soon anyway, why not just let us leave now before you destroy the entire conference?
300 million.
How about 100 million over 4 years?
Etc., etc.
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All-TigerNet [13549]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 8:38 PM
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The exit fee is one thing but the GOR is the bigger number to wrestle with and the ACC has no influence on that number.
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Legend [19586]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 8:49 PM
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The ACC has every influence on the number. They own the rights.
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All-TigerNet [13549]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 8:55 PM
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ESPN holds the cards on GOR. The schools agreed to transfer their media rights to the ACC who in turn negotiated and extended a long-term agreement with ESPN. Unless the ACC could convince ESPN to modify the agreement, there isn't anything they can do on their own.
ESPN really has us by the short hairs related to GOR...
Message was edited by: slwcu79®
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Orange Blooded [2100]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 9:36 PM
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Another reason to hate E$ecPN.
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Orange Blooded [3828]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 8:54 PM
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I suspect you’re right. There must be some negotiation happening, otherwise why keep meeting if 4 schools are a solid “no”. Hope NC State can hold firm bc they are the ugly sister of the four.
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CU Medallion [52525]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 8:59 PM
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UNC and NC State might be a package deal.
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All-TigerNet [13549]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 9:01 PM
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It does make you wonder because normally you would never expect those two to agree on anything.
Message was edited by: slwcu79®
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CU Guru [1836]
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The magnificent 7 but Miami, UVa and VPI aren't voting no?
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Aug 11, 2023, 9:03 PM
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What's up with that.
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All-TigerNet [10400]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 9:10 PM
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You know Gomer Phillips and the idiot presidents that wants expansion might actually go for that.
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Rock Defender [60]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 9:34 PM
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Mental gymnastics, so excuse the lack of detail, and please point out problems as you see them.
ESPN is the only entity that has common interest in seeing the SEC and ACC survive and thrive.
They also hold billion $ contracts with both entities, which carries some degree of influence. They are the only entity in a position to amend those contracts if it benefits Disney.
So, ESPN starts moving the chessmen- lets start with them asking to move 2-4 ACC members to the SEC to further boost their crown jewel product. SEC, southern only, football. The new teams likely would need to accept a 75% share or about for some early years to help make overall numbers work.
In turn they offer to " facilitate" the 4 PAC orphans move into ACC. Covering exit fees, etc. This gives them the late night product they crave to counter Fox monopoly on post 9pm live college football. Again these schools must buy-in at a reduced annual fee to make the entire scheme work financially for ESPN.
All 8 schools find permanent homes in Power 4 leagues, continue to earn at about $30+ million for initial years, then grow up to full conference shares.
Gotta have a hole that I don't see. Otherwise so convenient and facile, why not?
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All-TigerNet [13549]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 10:11 PM
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Ideally, ESPN would like to see the ACC add Stanford/CA/SMU and keep the rest of the ACC intact so they have no incentive to lower the GOR penalty. This way they keep more eyeballs on the ACC without it being watered down and still have a cash cow with the SEC.
If the crown jewels leave the ACC then the ACC becomes less attractive to viewers and that hurts ESPN. They are greedy so they will do everything they can to keep the ACC as is. I think the holdouts see this and don't want to help ESPN by adding the other schools and making it even more difficult for them to exit.
ESPN is in control until someone comes up with enough money to buy themselves out of the GOR and perhaps then you see teams heading for the exits. Or, these Presidents may feel the whole thing is going to change again in a few years with the super-conference structure and new expanded playoff system and they just keep their money and wait for that to happen.
I would also add if this is what the Presidents are thinking then it would make sense to add Stanford and CAL from an academic perspective. They attract a lot of research dollars and grants and if they collaborated with other ACC schools there could be a nice additional revenue stream that goes toward academic endeavors.
A lot of moving parts here for sure...
Message was edited by: slwcu79®
Message was edited by: slwcu79®
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Rock Defender [60]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 10:38 PM
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"If the crown jewels leave the ACC then the ACC becomes less attractive to viewers and that hurts ESPN."
As I say the crown jewels do not leave ESPN they just change conferences.
The big picture behind the scenario is ESPN knows the future is 2 Mega conferences (SEC AND BiG) and the others, Big 12 and ACC included, are relegated to second tier status. Average football, strong Olympic sports and far lower "eyeballs", revenue and relevance.
ESPN money and contract position with ACC is ONLY way the GoR can be bypassed in near term. If ESPN plays hardball and sees no advantage to a shakeup the current status holds thru 2036.
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All-TigerNet [13549]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
Aug 11, 2023, 10:42 PM
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But if the schools that attract viewers to the ACC go elsewhere then viewership and interest drop for the ACC which hurts ESPN. The SEC is going to have strong viewership whether FSU/Clemson are there or not. The upside they would bring to ESPN viewership of the SEC would not cover the loss in viewership that ESPN would experience with the ACC if the better teams aren't there.
I think ESPN wants the current status to hold until 2036 or until the mega conferences happen, whichever occurs first.
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Orange Blooded [2746]
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Why are they still voting?
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Aug 11, 2023, 10:08 PM
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thought it was dead.
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All-TigerNet [13549]
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Re: Why are they still voting?
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Aug 11, 2023, 10:13 PM
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They technically have not called for a vote. They are just polling the Presidents to see where they are. Clearly, they are trying to get one more school to turn so they can get it passed. When they believe the impasse is going to hold, they will then call the official vote and it will be over. I'm guessing this probably happens on Monday at the latest.
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CU Guru [1848]
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Re: Why are they still voting?
Aug 11, 2023, 10:24 PM
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Wow, that soon? That would be great!
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All-TigerNet [13549]
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Re: Why are they still voting?
Aug 11, 2023, 10:28 PM
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Well, Monday is the 14th so they are bumping right up against the 15th deadline to declare intentions.
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All-In [46574]
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FSU & Clemson are SEC bound and the deal is done
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Aug 11, 2023, 10:18 PM
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They are delaying letting the public know because they want to replace those teams so they don’t drop in numbers.
We are going to be in the SEC! It’s just a matter of when.
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All-TigerNet [13549]
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Re: FSU & Clemson are SEC bound and the deal is done
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Aug 11, 2023, 10:21 PM
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From your mouth to God's ears...
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Hall of Famer [22392]
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I agree with your last sentence.
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Aug 11, 2023, 10:40 PM
[ in reply to FSU & Clemson are SEC bound and the deal is done ] |
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Well, I think it is SEC, but it might be B1G.
But, I think it is possible they are still negotiating the exact numbers so they can figure out the exact departure date.
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CU Guru [1848]
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Re: If the latest rumors are correct, that....
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Aug 11, 2023, 10:31 PM
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You da man Brett! You have thought provoking posts. I realize some of which are sort of speculation but still there seems some validity in each.
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Hall of Famer [22392]
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They may end up being correct, but...
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Aug 11, 2023, 10:41 PM
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... they are still speculation when I post them.
I just have fun reading all the stuff, getting as much information as possible and then making the most reasonable guess I can based on that information.
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