Orange Blooded [2253]
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Joined: 11/10/08
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Alabama Scouting
Jan 3, 2017, 10:09 PM
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It is officially that time gents. This is the last one of the season, and once again I was within 7 points of our point total (I said 38, we scored 31 and took a knee at the end of the game)(I did say 38-26, but if OSU hit some of those plays and the FGs it would have likely been 31-13 at best). Just a quick note, this report is even longer than the OSU one. Lots of good details and some interesting stats to pass along as well (the 2 tidbit posts I made I put links to at the bottom of this post as well). Without further ado, let's get to it (last note: Turnovers are an obvious factor, but remember, I'm trying to bring out some info that you may not otherwise hear on the main broadcast Monday night)
Keys
Offense
1) 3.5 yards a rush
-Bama is averaging giving up only 2 yards a rush on the entire season. Ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous stat. The 2 teams that had 100 yards or more rushing on them were Ole Miss (101) and Texas A&M (114). Both teams averaged 3 yards a carry. Both teams were the only ones to actually lead Bama in the 2nd half (at any point) on the season. Ole Miss was the only one who were able to break right through their D-line and score from 10+ yards out. Why? Balance. Maybe not in an even split for yardage, but in terms of play calls (30 Rushes, 40 passing attempts) it was close. Why the Ole Miss Reference? Because we know Swag’s style of QB play, and we all know Deshaun is better, yet Swag was very very effective against the Bama defense. His mobility extended plays and he was able to pick up yards himself. We don’t need to average 5 yards a carry or more (it’d be nice but it’s not a must), but 3.5 yards per rush is what we need to keep balanced.
2) Isolate Mike Williams on #26 Humphrey (get #26 in one on one against Williams) and attack that matchup every time
-Humphreys was exposed against the Ole Miss offense time and time again against Ingram (similar in size to Williams). Ingram won more of the battles than he lost, and he’s not the same complete receiver that Williams is. This is a key in the game. Can we get Williams isolated one on one with any of their corners, but especially #26? No defense has stopped him all season, and that will include Bama. That will also serve in other areas, forcing the defense to move a safety to help cover Williams. What does that mean? One on One coverage for our other receivers, including Mr. White Lightning himself who torched their best corner for two TDs last year. Cain also didn’t play last year, don’t be surprised if our receivers have a big day. It’ll force Bama to lighten the box against the run game and that’s when we got them.
3) Screens, Jet Sweeps, and RPOs to the edges
-One area Bama has consistently been attacked in from opponents and have struggled with (at times) are the edges and flats. These plays are essentially an extension of the run game, and calling these early (if the secondary is playing off coverage and the box is stacked to stop the run) can help setup our offense for the shots we want to take down the field.
Defense
1) Get a push in the middle of the line (everyone knows with Kiffin gone they will get back to running the ball even more, it’s no secret)
-Alabama averages 246 yards a game rushing, yet gives up 7.21 TFLs per game (that’s 108th in the country) and has given up 25 sacks on the season (that’s 40th in the country). Why? Pass blocking. They are a much better run blocking than pass blocking team. Who tends to be the guilty parties giving up pressure? LT Robinson? Not consistently but it does happen. What about the center and R/LGs? At times, yes as well. RT #73? Absolutely. I see a weakness here. This is also where Ferrell tends to line up as well (and changes sides with Wilkins and Bryant throughout the game). In order to help the DEs get around the edge, the DT’s need to get a push. Can they do it? Absolutely, the Bama offensive line has been a weakness in pass protection that has caused problems in their offensive stats. Honestly, watching the film screams Pagano’s wheelhouse to me. He’s going to have a monster game. Mark it down.
2) Break Tendencies in the Calls
-Do you know the main reason why from a schematic POV we were so successful against OSU? It wasn’t just the execution by the players, it was the breaking of tendencies in the game plan. Typically this means Coach V dialing up blitzes from various spots on the field. If you watch the tape, you will see some interesting zone defensive calls we haven’t called a bunch this year (ex. Dropping the DEs into coverage on a few plays really threw off the timing of the passes into the flats). I fully expect to see Bama adjust at the LOS and expect more blitzes than zones. Coach V, the weakness of the entire Bama offense is the passing game. Show pressure, drop into coverage, and make Hurts beat you with his arm. Can it happen at times? Yes, will it the entire game? Haha, not a chance (sounds familiar to last week doesn’t it?)
3) Tackling at the LB and Secondary levels
-There will be some plays Bama will make on offense. The important thing here is yards after contact (run or pass) needs to be minimal this game. Why? The majority of Bama’s yards on offense come from after contact, and it’s not even close. The intensity will be amped up for this game, but I know we will be ready.
4) Secondary: EYE DISCIPLINE
-You know how most of Bama’s passes down the field end up completed? Lack of eye discipline from the secondary, allowing the receivers to get a half step ahead. They only average 182 yards a game through the air, but with their ability to run the ball, it can be easy to peak into the backfield. Don’t do it.
PREDICTION
1st Quarter
-Bama is going to do what they do and try to establish the run. They will NOT be very successful this quarter. When we have the ball, we will try to establish our version of the running game (traditional zone read game with Deshaun and Wayne, followed by Jet sweeps to Artavis and Ray Ray, and Screen passes to all receivers). It’s going to be both teams feeling each other out this quarter, so don’t expect a lot of offense. Bama could very well be up by 7 at the end of this quarter, so don’t be surprised if this is the case, but I don’t see either team scoring a TD this quarter.
End of 1st Quarter Score – Clemson 3 Alabama 3
2nd Quarter
-This is where I think you will see the running plays Bama called shift from between the tackles and guards to more on the edge due to us stuffing their attack. Expect some frequent shotgun formations with screens and RBs in motion and quick passes after the snap from them. Expect them to get a TD at some point during this quarter. What about us? This is where you see the plays from the 1st quarter pay off. Isolating Corners on the edge with the screen game will force the safeties closer to the line of scrimmage. Look for Williams on Bama #26 Humphrey this quarter, and expect us to take a few shots. I expect to see Williams own this dude, he was beat a lot during the season in various games (he made some plays too but there is a reason he was attacked more than any other corner on the Bama defense).
Halftime – Clemson 13 Alabama 10
3rd Quarter
-Adjustments on both sides will have possessions going 3 and out for both teams early in this quarter. Expect Bama to shift to running the QB more and having some success but not enough to be consistent. For the record, I don’t see Bama scoring any more than once this quarter. Why? They cannot consistently hit passes down the field in the passing game (sound familiar?). The big adjustment Bama will make against the offense is going to more 2 safety sets in order to stop the receivers, namely Williams. If we can get this to happen in the 2nd half, we got them right where we want them. Why? The numbers game. If you take our basic set (Shotgun, 3 WRs, TE who goes in motion, 5 OL, QB and 1RB), that leaves 9 defenders left to cover 11 players. They will have to have personnel account for the 3 WRs (namely someone covering each of them) and a LB on the TE (probably Leggett). That’s 2 Safeties, 2 Corners, and a Hybrid LB/NB covering the deep ball and each receiver/TE. That leaves 6 defenders against 7 players (including the QB). That’s when we call the QB run game and have a hat on a hat blocking. When this happens, we start our march to a 2 score lead by running effectively, and then hitting our WRs down the field for 2 big touchdowns.
End of 3rd Quarter Score – Clemson 27 Alabama 17
4th Quarter
-This is when Bama will have to start pressing a little bit, speeding up their tempo and running faster than they want to. They will catch us off guard on a couple of plays, but will have to settle for a FG to make it a one possession game. The very next drive, we drive down the field, torch Humphrey one more time for a huge TD to go up 2 scores with under 7 minutes to play. Bama gets the ball back and drives to midfield, but the D-line pressures hurts into a bad throw that Marcus Edmond (yea buddy) intercepts. We run the clock out, and celebrate.
Final Score – Clemson 34 Alabama 20
Note: Bama will not score a TD on defense or special teams this game. Why? They have 11 non-offensive touchdowns, you know how many we have given up? Just one all season. It’s not happening Monday night. That alone takes 10 points off the scoreboard for them (they average 9.5 points a game off turnovers).
(This game could go a few different directions depending on turnovers, but even though I’m saying 34-20, do not be surprised if we hold them to 10 points or less. They have played some pretty good defenses this season (LSU comes to mind) but the one thing they have not faced is a team that can play offense defense and special teams in the same game. You get up 2 scores in the 2nd half against these guys, and they will start pressing. Their O-line is not very good in pass protection, and getting up 2 scores will expose that to the entire nation as we start to rack up the hits on Hurts. How fitting would it be for a 34-10 score, reversing the roles of the 08 opener? I’m saying 34-20, but my heart wants to see us win 34-10).
THE GAMEDAY GUIDE (As I am calling this section since it resembles a gameday bible worth of information)
14-0 Overall (9-0 Conference)
Wins over USC (52-6), Western Kentucky (38-10), @ Ole Miss (48-43), Kent State (48-0), Kentucky (34-6), @ Arkansas (49-30), @ Tennessee (49-10), Texas A & M (33-14), @ LSU (10-0), Mississippi State (51-3), Chattanooga (31-3), Auburn (30-12), Florida (54-16), Washington (24-7)
Offense (per game)
Scoring
39.4 points
9.5 off turnovers (per game, yes per game)
1st downs
21.36
12.21 Rushing
8.36 Passing
0.79 Penalty
Total Offense
460.9 yards
Plays
70.71
Rushing
246.7 Yards
5.7 yards Per rush
43.21 Rushes
2.14 TDs
Passing
214.2 Yards
7.8 yards Per attempt
27.5 Attempts
1.79 TDs
81st in the nation in passing
Turnovers (on the season)
24 Fumbles (11 lost)
9 Interceptions thrown
3rd Downs (season)
89/193
46%
Penalties (season)
77
578 yards
41.3 yards/game (calling BS on this one being so low, especially after the 4 missed holding calls I saw in the UW game)
Sacks given up
25
40th in the nation in sacks allowed
Season high 3 sacks given up against USC, Texas A&M, Chattanooga (not a typo), Washington
Red Zone (season)
56/63
89%
39 TDs
Only 62% TDs when in the red zone
17 FGs
3 missed in the red zone
Average 4.5 red zone trips/game
Defense (per game)
Scoring
11.4 points
1st downs
13.28
4.5 Rushing
7.57 Passing
1.21 by way of a Penalty
Total Defense
244 yards
Plays
63.14
Rushing
62 Yards
2 yards Per rush (not a typo)
31 Rushes
0.21 TDs
3 on the entire season (not a typo)
Passing
182 Yards
5.7 yards Per attempt
450 Attempts
0.86 TDs
12 on the entire season (not a typo)
Turnovers (takeaways) (season)
25 Fumbles (10 recovered)
5 TDs
16 Interceptions
Fitzpatrick (6)
5 others with 2
2 others with 1
6 TDs
3rd Downs (season)
66/220
30%
Sacks (season)
50
#93 Allen 9.5
#22 Anderson 8.0
#56 Williams 9.0
No one else has more than 4 sacks
Red Zone (season)
17/21 possessions
81%
8 TDs
38%
9 FGs
43%
Special Teams (season)
Field Goals
21/28
75%
20-29 Yards
9/10
30-39 yards
8/10
40-49 yards
3/7
Long of 48
Have not attempted a kick longer than 44 yards since the Kent State game (48, 47 and 48 yarders in the 2 games preceding this game)
Punts
54 total
47.4-yard average
10 TBs
20 inside the 20 yard line
24 kicks of 50+ yards
Kick Offs
93 Kos
48 TBs
63.5-yard average
Return Game
Punts
33 returns
4 TDs
2 of these by Eddie Jackson who is out for the year with an injury
Average 15.7 yards a return (potential opportunity here if we attack the returner on punts to maybe get them to muff one and get a turnover)
Kicks
25 returns
Average of 19.6 yards a return
0 TDs (after last year, I know we’d be happy to just kick it out of the end zone all game, but could be an opportunity to gain some field position by kicking it a little short of the goal line and making the tackle before the 20)
1 return of 41 yards out of 25 returns, no others over 25 yards
Misc
Scoring by Quarter
First
114-45
Second
171-54
Third
142-29
Fourth
124-32
Only two teams rushed for over 100 yards against Bama
Ole Miss – 101 (3 yards a carry)
Texas A&M – 114 (3 yards a carry)
As good as Bama’s rush defense is, they tend to give up at least a couple long runs per game
Longest run allowed in each game
USC – 36
WKU – 16
Ole Miss – 23
Kent State – 47
Kentucky – 17
Arkansas – 18
Tennessee – 12
Texas A&M – 27
LSU – 9
Mississippi State – 24
Chattanooga – 13
Auburn – 13
Florida – 7
Washington – 16
Passing Defense gives up chunk plays a few times a game as well (even with the averages)
Longest pass allowed in each game
USC – 36
Western Kentucky – 59
Ole Miss – 63
Kent State – 36
Kentucky – 16
Arkansas – 57
Tennessee – 36
Texas A&M – 33
LSU – 41
Mississippi State – 41
Chattanooga – 31
Auburn – 55
Florida – 32
Washington - 20
Ole Miss Game Stats
522 yards Total Offense
421 passing yards, 3 TDs, 65% completions
101 rushing yards, 1 TD (3 yards a carry)
Bama rarely runs the Shotgun 2RB formation
On zone read plays, I would attack Hurts and hit him to force him to hand the ball off. Even if we give up some yards to the RB, I want Hurts pressured because most of his fumbles are due to worrying about the defensive pressure.
Why? Because Hurts averages 252.9 total yards per game. Harris (RB) only 72.4, Scarbrough (RB) only 59.9.
Specific Game Notes
Washington Game
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvzZK6asVDM
UW attacked the edges
Little success running between the tackles
UW RG was getting blown up bad early
UW let a pick 6 fall to the turf
Followed by a false start
UW forced a 3 and out to start the game
Washington’s RG, even when the defense rushed 4 and played with 2 deep safeties, kept getting beat (2:15 mark above)
Bama let a lot of space in the middle of the field open with their 2 safeties deep and rush 4, when UW picked it up, Browning was able to read the defense, everyone was covered, and ran for a first down on 3rd and 6
When given time on the 2nd drive for UW, Browning hit the receiver who beat the defender into the endzone (Bama #26)
Play action forced the UW safety up and opened up a hole in the zone for an easy pass to Howard on the near sideline (4:05 mark above)
Bama ran right up the middle of the UW D line and got big chunks on their first TD drive
UW kept trying to run it out of the endzone and that was a mistake, consistently gave up 10 yards of field position by doing that
RB screen on the sideline was effective again
Different formations kept Bama off guard at times
Fumble by UW gave Bama a short field but they held them to a FG
Bama had some self-induced penalties on this same drive
Bama RBs just bounced off the d line again and again (poor tackling)
Most of the 2nd quarter was a stalemate with good defensive play by both teams
Pick 6 that UW gave up came from a free rusher up the middle from Bama that forced an early check down to a covered RB
Bama #11 picked up a first down on a great side line catch (need to make sure we note this, we will cover the other guys but this one could be the wild card)
The pass rush from Washington was very effective (and only rushing 4 while dropping 7)
Washington’s O line was garbage, I haven’t seen one play so far where all 5 members were successful in blocking their guy, even with only 4 rushers
Hurts was awful throwing under pressure in the 2nd quarter
If UW takes a knee to end the half, having started at their own 4-yard line, it’d have been very interesting in the 2nd half
13:26 mark above, man in motion ran behind the center and took the ball and “QB” sneaked it on 3rd and 1 for a first down, interesting wrinkle
15:59 mark above, Bama #11 again on a 3rd down and long completion to an open hole on the sideline against zone coverage
Called back by ineligible receiver down field, but needs to be noted
Fumble by Hurts that was recovered by Bama would have been a huge momentum shift because UW was still in the game at that point (18:30 mark above)
Bama got back to running the ball and took over the game
The field position game was won by a landslide by Bama
If you watch just the lines of scrimmage, you’ll see the majority of the snaps won by Alabama
@ Ole Miss Game
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEhvGTztblw
Humphrey (#26) was attacked by the Ole Miss passing game
1:01 mark, Zone Read and decent blocking opening a whole in the middle of the Bama D-line with the safety too far to the side to catch up to the RB (similar play that Gallman had against Louisville in the 1st half, could see this play again Monday night)
Hurts made some good decisions pull the ball on the zone read early
Harris and Scarborough are a good 1-2 punch at RB
Hurts missed an open receiver in the end zone
Forced a FG attempt
Kelly underthrew an open receiver down the field, allowed the defender to catch up and knock the ball away (4:04 mark above)
Bama attacked the rugby style punt (2 plays after the one above, worth noting because they’ve seen that style of punt and I’m sure will attack it as a part of their game plan)
Cam Robinson had 2 early false start penalties (LT, the all American, he can make some mistakes, be curious to see if we rotate Wilkins, Ferrell, and Bryant at him to hit with power rushes and then speed rushes)
4:48 mark, when Hurts had time, he found #11 (a trend that has developed is finding him, aka possession receiver, on 2nd/3rd and longs for a sure completion)
5:19 mark, QB draw was the perfect play call against attacking DEs from the edges with deep zones behind them, but Hurts fumbled upon contact (review overturned the fumble), a common trend this year is Hurts does fumble the ball a fair amount
Ridley in the screen game was a common play call
Hurts forced a pass into double coverage (almost picked) on 3rd down (6:48 mark above)
Missed FG the play after
7:54 mark, Hurts threw a pass that should have been a pick 6 but the defender dropped it
8:38 mark, Swag attacked the hole on the sideline in the secondary (common in this game) (called back for holding on the offense)
9:21 mark, HB Counter (similar to the infamous Cook play call for FSU picked up a big gain to the left side of their O-line)
9:50 mark, ran a double reverse and had the option to throw it but the defense shut it down (could see this play again Monday night)
Bama shanked a punt in the 2nd quarter
10:32 mark, Swag threw a deep ball and Humphrey (#26) again was beat by a receiver (I’ve seen this happen in a few games this year, I’d be shocked at this point if we didn’t isolate him with Mike Williams 1 on 1 every chance we get)
Ole Miss attacked the edges, lot of positive yards
11:27 mark, Bama #11 possession receiver again on 2nd and long made a catch in the open hole in the zone defense
11:37 mark, Hurts felt a little pressure and ball slipped out of his hands on a pass (fumbled, recovered)
#22 Anderson (Bama) is a handful, threw off an OL and RB and hit Swag throwing
12:54 mark, Swag made the safety bite on a zone read fake and threw it deep to the right side of the field to a wide-open receiver (Bama’s secondary yet again was not up to par in the 1st half) (expect to see Deshaun attack the line of scrimmage and then throw over the top similar to the VT game)
14:44 mark, Hurts fumble, scoop and score for Ole Miss (free rusher off the right side of the Bama O-line)
Combination of Ole Miss plays and self induced errors (I lost track of how many times Bama was forced into a ton of 2nd and 3rd and longs in the 1st half (until late)
Big difference in the 2 halves of this game is the defense getting that fumble for a TD (shifted momentum) and getting pressure in the middle of the offensive line (changed the game)
Deep shots drew some PIs from the Ole Miss secondary, expect to see Bama do this to us to try and loosen up the box that we will play against them
Bama stopped making self-induced mistakes and got pressure on Kelly, scored on another defensive TD
Ole Miss made it a game late with the quick TD, onside kick recovery, and another quick td, but Bama maintained control
@ LSU Game
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iaZvJKjfhM
LSU’s secondary started the game on fire, tackled very well, reading the QB’s eyes
0:39 mark, notice the formations (Bama in Shotgun with 1TE to the left, common formation for them (and us as well actually)), vs LSU’s DEs kicked out with LBs scattered near the LOS, particularly 2 deep safeties (including 1 behind the man to man coverage on the far side of the field) and how the late LB rush forced a bad decision from Hurts on the interception
Pause it at 0:52 seconds, Safety ready Hurts’ eyes the entire play. Expect our defense to run this same formation on 3rd and long.
Bama’s D-line on 3rd and long is extremely dangerous, cannot run long developing plays on 3rd down and expect much
LSU attacked them on the edges with the secondary and tackled very well
Bama’s O-line struggled in pass protection the entire game (lots of different defensive looks but the one constant was the pressure in Hurts’ face)
2:38 mark, guess who got beat on a deep 1 on 1 ball? That’s right, #26 Humphrey. It was 3rd and 6 as well with a safety over the top the help in coverage but was late finding the ball. Guess who was playing safety? Fitzpatrick. He’s a very solid corner but is spotty at safety.
Bama consistently used the screen game because the O-line was not opening holes in the run game consistently, and LSU shut that down early.
6:32 mark, pay attention to the 8 defenders at the LOS. LSU gets a hat on a hat, and you see a successful. Bama putting 8 in the box I don’t think is going to happen much on 1st down, but if it does, that screams hit Williams on the outside (8 men in the box means 3 in coverage, and you’ll notice 5 yards off the ball and dropping further back on the snap)
7:03 mark, watch the run by the FB (possible wrinkle for us with maybe Wilkins or Lawrence? Maybe) to pick up the first down.
7:08 mark, play action that was setup PERFECTLY, QB threw it late, but the receiver beat the corner (Guess who? Yep #26 Humphrey). Would not be surprised to see a similar play by us (not in the I-formation though, though maybe!) with Cain down the field.
Bama had to blitz a lot to disrupt the LSU offense, that’s what we want, because Deshaun will pick them apart if they have to blitz to get to him.
8:12 mark, look at the formation. What do you notice? 3rd and 2 with Bama in shotgun, yet LSU had no one to account for the far side of the field except the safety who is so deep in the middle of the field at the snap he was too far away to make a play near the LOS. Good play call by Bama to QB run it and use the RB blocking to get the edge for a big gain.
8:48 mark, watch the O-line struggle blocking 3 D-linemen, and actually a good play call to the RB on the wheel route, but the safety back to help cover took that play away from Bama.
9:12 mark, LSU was successful running a play we have run a bunch (shotgun empty set QB draw to the open area in the middle for the field for a good gain).
How LSU did not score in this game is beyond me, some GREAT starting field position, but the QB play was poor.
12:34 mark, this is textbook why I say “attack” the returner, because he just might muff it.
12:46 mark, first deep ball hit all night by Bama, fake jet sweep (safety had his eyes in the backfield) and hit a play to an open receiver (this is the danger of only one safety and all 11 players within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage)
15:28 mark, reverse with an option to throw, they ran this same play in the Ole Miss game and had the same no gain result, but they will call this in a close game when they try to stretch the field.
15:40 mark, watch how the pressure (corner blitz) takes Hurts’ attention, gets him thinking a little too much, and ends up fumbling upon contact (strip). This exact sequence of events has happened a fair amount this season, we will run this I’m sure at some point on defense in the game.
17:23 mark, 3rd and 3, LSU with a chance to get a 1st down near the Bama 30 and a false start. Cannot have these Monday night.
Next play, 3rd and 8, Bama pinned their ears back, forced QB to throw away but ball didn’t cross the line of scrimmage, intentional grounding, all field position gained on that drive went away.
QB Run game got LSU on too wide defensive positioning
QB run game was the only consistent running attack to gain position yards when called
Bama picked a pass off and literally ran a bunch of QB runs (very effective against a worn-out LSU defense)
FG with 2:41 left effectively ended the game.
References
http://rolltide.com.s3.amazonaws.com/documents/2016/9/10/Alabama_Football_Cume_Stats_9_10_16.pdf
Previous Tidbits
http://www.tigernet.com/forums/message.jspa?messageID=20772312
http://www.tigernet.com/forums/thread.jspa?threadID=1656923&tstart=400
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