ESPN analyst says Dabo Swinney is "at his best" in games like Clemson as underdog to FSU

Clemson hasn't been a home underdog since 2016, where Dabo Swinney and the Tigers topped Louisville.

by TigerNet Staff - Thu Sep 21 10:13:22 GMT-04:00 2023

A lot is on the line, for both possibly this season and the big picture beyond that when Clemson hosts No. 4 Florida State this weekend.

Dabo Swinney's Tigers are seeking to avoid an 0-2 ACC start as a 2.5-point underdog currently, while the Seminoles are seeking a 4-0 start and 2-0 in ACC play.

An ESPN panel broke down the game and the teams in general this week and a couple of analysts are favoring Florida State. College GameDay host Rece Davis says it's a situation that Swinney thrives in, however.

“I’m leaning to pick Florida State because you guys know I’ve been very high on them since the preseason," Davis said, "but this is where Dabo Swinney is at his best…You can be as mad as you want to be, and if you don’t have the weapons to take advantage of it, you can be as fired up as you want to be and give the best speech and ‘nobody respects us’ as much as you want and it won’t help you. But this is where Dabo Swinney’s at his best. Not necessarily at his best when he’s trying to manufacture disrespect, but when there’s actual critique, which the coaches will always take critique as disrespect, that can be formed into motivational tactics.

"That’s where he’s at his best, so I think Clemson will come out and their defense will make life miserable for Florida State for a while. The question is will they be able to do anything on offense to take advantage of that emotion early because you know Florida State hasn’t won in Death Valley since Jameis Winston said, ‘We ain’t leaving without a victory’ and at Florida State ‘If we’re going to do it we’re going to do it big.’"

ESPN college football insider Pete Thamel said it could be a low-scoring slugfest, and he pointed to Clemson's receiver group for why he isn't exactly confident in the Tigers.

“I’ll be curious to see if Clemson’s skill, which I think you can take a direct line to the decline of Clemson from National Title winner, Playoff contender to this notch just below that where they live now to their drop in receiver play," Thamel said. "I don’t think it’s overly complex. Look they have Cole Turner (now out for the season), Beaux Collins, Antonio Williams – none of those guys if you’re a defensive coordinator, scares you. They can’t blow the top off as Bill said. And you are not forming your game plan around stopping them, which means it’s going to be congested for Will Shipley up the middle. Their offensive line has also really been pedestrian throughout the run of dominance, but they’ve just had the skill to overcome that."

Both Davis and analyst Bill Connelly pointed to Clemson's lack of explosive passing plays as something that needs to be remedied on Saturday.

“They only average seven percent of their passes that go 20 yards or longer," Davis said. "That’s like bottom five in the country. They average about five yards per attempt through the air. They’ve lost a bunch of fumbles. I know most of them in that weird Duke game, but I don’t think they will be able to win the game out-muscling Florida State. They’re going to need to get something easy if they’re going to win. And so far, we haven’t seen the evidence that they have the receivers to do that, up to this point.”

"Klubnik is averaging like 9.7 yards per completion. It’s a nibble offense right now," said Connelly, "and again, they knew they were going to beat Charleston Southern and Florida Atlantic, so they didn’t really have to divvy out any of their special parts of the playbook I guess, but now we’re going to find out if they have the special parts of the playbook and if they have the receivers who can make big plays when asked. Because they’re gonna – they had that one 40-yard run against Duke, and that’s pretty much it for the year at this point, and that has to change obviously for Florida State. And not only for Florida State, taking on Syracuse the next week, and Syracuse looks awesome. And then Wake and Miami and NC State, a whole bunch of games that are losable if it really just turns out that Clemson can’t ever make any big plays."

Connelly’s SP+ formula has Clemson by a field goal, and Connelly disagrees with that.

“That was very annoying,” Connelly said. “Basically it’s carryover (some preseason expectations still factored in) and Clemson ended up projecting pretty well heading into the year with what they returned and everything – plus SP+ wasn’t really sold on Florida State last year. Just because they only played like we remembered them playing for half the year, so when they starting rising – they only rose so far and blah blah blah. But basically the other thing going against Florida State is that they fell from 8th to 13th after Boston College last week.

“So if you kind of add some context there, it was windy or whatever and Jordan Travis was hurt in the second half, maybe that punished them a little too much. But that’s why Clemson’s favored now. I don’t like it. I’m picking Florida State, but it’s at least a reminder that Clemson’s quality isn’t that far off in the rearview (mirror).”

That said, Connelly believes Clemson can certainly pull off the big win.

"They fell after they lost to Duke, and they treated too overwhelmed opponents like they were supposed to, and they’re still very efficient," Connelly said. "They’re not making big plays, and Cade (Klubnik), whatever he’s been saving in the first three games of his starting era at Clemson, he needs to dole it out this week. They need some chunk plays and easy points, but it’s at least a reminder that Clemson is capable of winning a game like this, and they kind of have still to prove that they’re not anymore."