Wednesday October 22, 2008

Dabo's Tall Task

Dabo's Tall Task
I am a little late this afternoon in posting the blog. I sometimes write the blog the night before but last night I went to Greenville for the Clemson-Furman soccer game and was disappointed in the Tigers 2-1 overtime loss.

And most of today I have spent going back and looking at the history of coaches and how much success the great ones have had and how early they had it.

I looked at every coach that has won a national title in the last forty years and I also took a look at the coaches at schools currently ranked in the top 25 of the latest BCS poll. I felt this data would give me a look at the legendary coaches and also a peek at the current coaches that are finding success in 2008.

What I found was that in many cases, very successful coaches had average to poor records in their first season and most turned things around in their second season. Many others continue to build greatness and years two through four are the best chances at a national title.

I was shocked to see how many of the current top coaches had poor records in year one. For example:
Nick Saban was 7-6 in his first year at Alabama and 6-5-1 in his first season at Michigan State.

Joe Paterno was 5-5 in his first season at Penn State.

Bob Stoops was 7-5 in his first season at Oklahoma.

Pete Carroll was 6-6 in his first season at Southern Cal.

Oklahoma State is currently ranked sixth in the BCS but Mike Gundy was 4-7 in his first season.

Texas Tech is currently ranked eighth but Mike Leach was 7-6 in his first year.

JimTressel was 7-5 in his first season at Ohio State.

Utah’s Kyle Whittingham was 7-5 in his first season at Utah but now has the Utes ranked 11th.

Gary Patterson’s first TCU team went 6-6.

Gary Pinkel’s initial season at Missouri ended with a 4-7 record.

Jim Leavitt’s first team and South Florida and Dave Wannstedt’s first squad at Pitt both went 5-6.

Ball State is now ranked 20th and Brady Hoke’s first team there went 4-8.

Bronco Mendenhall of BYU went 6-6 in his first season in Provo, Pat Fitzgerald went 4-8 in his first year at Northwestern , Mark Mangino went 2-10 in his initial season at Kansas and Tim Brewster went 1-11 in his first season at Minnesota but all are currently in the top 25.

Other top coaches that are not ranked had similar first seasons. Bobby Bowden went 5-6 in year one in Tallahassee. Tommy Tuberville’s first team at Auburn went 5-6. Butch Davis’ first team at North Carolina went 4-8. Jeff Tedford’s first team at Cal went 7-5. Rich Rodriguez is struggling at Michigan in his first season and his first West Virginia squad went 3-8.

History also tells us that many of the greatest coaches of yesteryear also got off to bad starts. Woody Hayes went 4-3 in his first season at Ohio State. Bear Bryant’s first Alabama team went 5-4-1 and his first team at Texas A&M was 1-9. Shug Jordan’s first team at Auburn went 5-5.

Year Two
The second season is where many of the top coaches started to see a return on their investment. Saban is now 7-0 in his second season at Alabama. Paterno went 8-2-1 at Penn State. Carroll went 11-2 at USC. Mark Richt went 13-1 in his second year at Georgia. Ohio State won a national title in Tressel’s second season as did Florida in Urban Meyer’s second season. Les Miles was 11-2 at LSU as was Bronco Mendenhall at BYU. TCU’s Gary Patterson went 10-2 in year two at TCU.

Bobby Bowden improved to go 10-2 in his second season at Florida State.

Year Three
Knute Rockne, Lou Holtz, Frank Leahy, Ara Parseghian and Dan Devine each won a national title of some sort in his third season at Notre Dame.

It seems the third season has been magical for many top coaches. Les Miles, Danny Ford, Barry Switzer, Dennis Erickson and Gene Stallings also won national championships in their third campaign.

Woody Hayes, Bear Bryant, Jimmy Johnson, Bobby Ross, Nick Saban and Pete Carroll had to wait until their fourth season to grab a national title while Bob Stoops picked up his first one in year two.

First Six Seven Weeks
The original point of the blog was to research and see how coaches did early in their coaching careers. I am not sure how many games Dabo Swinney has to win in his first seven weeks on the job but I was surprised how many great coaches failed in their first season.

Many failed because it was a total rebuilding job and that is not exactly what Dabo faces. However, those coaches had an entire spring and pre-fall camp to prepare and many still failed early.

I think Dabo has to win and win right away at Clemson. However, Woody Hayes, Bear Bryant, Bobby Bowden, Nick Saban, Joe Paterno, Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, Mike Gundy, Mike Leach, JimTressel, Kyle Whittingham, Gary Patterson, Gary Pinkel, Jim Leavitt, Bronco Mendenhall, Mark Mangino, Tim Brewster, Tommy Tuberville, Butch Davis, Jeff Tedford and Rich Rodriguez would not have survived under the same situation. They were perhaps more qualified but their performance based upon wins and losses would not have cut it under this current Clemson scenario.

I am happy for Dabo and I think he has a chance to get the job. This is really the only scenario in which he would have gotten the Clemson job at this stage in his career, so he has to be thankful for the opportunity. However, winning early and turning around a team with problems obviously did not come easy for many great coaches.

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