Wednesday January 09, 2008

Merling, Davis, Kelly, Hamlin

Merling, Davis, Kelly, Hamlin
Editor’s Note: I wrote this yesterday afternoon and have had to add Kelly to the mix. At this time it has been reported that Davis, Merling and Kelly are leaning towards going pro. These are fluid situations so stay close to a computer to follow this bumpy ride.

As Clemson fans we all would love to have another chance to cheer on James Davis, Phillip Merling, Aaron Kelly and Michael Hamlin. Selfishly I want them all to return because obviously the team would benefit from their return but I also want what is best for each in the long run.

So let’s examine each case:

James Davis-The Atlanta native is a terrific running back who I think will be a very good pro. I am not sure he is a difference maker at the next level or a Pr Bowl back but I do think he has a future in the league. Interestingly enough, running backs in the NFL don’t last very long (only 1 back over the age of 30 was in the top 25 rushers in the NFL this past season). But Davis can play several years in the NFL and no one can convince me otherwise.

One reason to go is the idea that if you are limited in the number of years you have in the league then why not begin them as soon as possible?

Another reason to go is the idea that if you can’t improve your stock then you should leave now. I hear Davis heard he was a third round-type back this season but I am not sure he would jump into the first round if he came back. On average about three or four backs are first round picks each year because many teams feel you can get a running back in the middle rounds. Davis would not break into the first round this season but would he improve enough to get in the first round next season? I am not so sure. Next year, Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells will be eligible to come out and there always seems to be another hot back emerge each year like Kevin Smith of Central Florida.

One reason for Davis to return is the idea of continuing to make his mark on the program. It is my belief that he would have a great chance to break many career records at Clemson next season including the school’s all-time rushing record. Also this team should be on the brink on a pre-season top 10 ranking and should be the pre-season favorite in the ACC. A chance to win a ring and play in a BCS game is enticing.

Finances are always a concern and I do not know nor should I know what his family’s finances look like.

He has said publically that he wanted to return and his mother has talked about him getting his degree. He has said one day he might one to get into coaching at the college level and a college degree is required at most places.

In the end, I would understand Davis leaving but I think he would benefit by returning for his senior season.

Phillip Merling-I think Merling has been told he has projected as a second round pick and this one makes the most sense. I think he will be a very good pro and is marketable because he can play defensive end in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme. Also Merling plays extremely hard on every play and that should play well with NFL scouts.

Merling will be advised by many including his uncle, Chris Rumph, who is also his position coach. He will hear about the importance of a degree and how special 2008 could be special.

In the end I think Merling is a long-time NFL player who has shown enough to indicate he will have staying power in the league. I am not sure he would ever be a first round pick though because he is not a great athlete with a high ceiling. To me he is a solid player but not a spectacular project that could ever be worthy of a top ten-type pick. Therefore, it makes sense for Merling to leave school early and enter the NFL draft.

Aaron Kelly-This came from nowhere. What in the world could he be thinking? Kelly has been projected about a fifth round pick and fifth round picks don’t have great chances for staying power in the NFL. I am sorry but the facts point out that fifth round picks are long shots. Kelly has great height and catches the ball OK. His speed is not great but that won’t kill his draft status. The real issue that NFL teams will have with Kelly is his toughness and his blocking. The National Football League is tough, physical league and in my opinion Kelly is nowhere near ready to make that jump. This is a mistake by all accounts and he is one that should not even consider the move.

I like Aaron Kelly. He is a great kid. But he needs to protect himself and not make a huge mistake. In my opinion this would be a decision he could very easily regret later in life.

Michael Hamlin-He is coming back and this is the right move. A jump would not have made sense to me, not because Hamlin is not worthy but because of his position and his style. The NFL has not been a league that has drafted safeties very high in the past and usually first round picks go more towards cornerbacks not safeties.

Hamlin also tore his MCL during the bowl game so he would be able to workout for the NFL scouts through the process. An MCL is not a huge blow but he would have needed to impress scouts with his individual workouts.

In summary, it made zero sense for Hamlin to leave early as he is very close to have his degree and the injury was a setback.

Other Tigers like Cullen Harper and Dorell Scott submitted their paperwork but both have said they plan to return for 2008.

The final analysis for every player considering jumping to the NFL should rest upon the current economic situation, the projected draft status, the potential of a future draft projection, injuries and how much their season is actually worth to them.

NFL draft expert Mike Detillier of New Orleans suggests that almost every player considering entering early would benefit from another year in school. Gaines Adams did the right thing and benefitted greatly. Derrick Hamilton made a big mistake when he left school before his senior season. But others were not as cut and dry. Keith Adams left early and was not a high draft pick but he was hurt by his height and would have gotten any taller nor would he have improved his stock had he returned as a senior.

We should all hope each Tiger makes the best decision for him and his family and always hold them in high regards regardless if they are here in 2008.

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