Tuesday January 03, 2012

Orange Bowl Prediction by Rev O

As Dabo told his players before the ACC Championship game, “… if you just put it together on offense, defense and special teams, it won’t be close, I don’t care who we play.” They did and it wasn’t close. Clemson seemed to be firing on all cylinders as they powered to a big win over VT in the ACC Championship game and I enjoyed being there to see it!! Now the question is, can they continue to play together on offense, defense and special teams and beat the best that the Big East has to offer? It’s much easier predicting wins and losses against teams within a conference but when you wander outside the conference then you need to look a little deeper. The Big East has never been considered a tough conference but always has a few teams that play at a high level and West Virginia has been one of those teams that has consistently played at a higher level than most in the conference but it appears that parody is beginning to take over and on any given day, even the top team can get beat by a team near the bottom as Syracuse showed when they crushed WVU 49-23 back on October 21st. This bowl game is being touted as one of the most exciting one to watch because of the ability of each team to score points. WVU has a powerful passing game much like Clemson has but their running game is not very strong which makes them kind of one dimensional. This, once again, is good for a Clemson team that has given up yards on the ground. The Tigers did a spectacular job containing the run game of VT and if they play the same press defense against WVU then they should be able to keep the WVU passing game off balance. WVU won their last 3 games by a combined total of 7 points. All three of those teams (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, South Florida) do not have a passing game like Clemson nor do they have a pass defense like Clemson. Offensively, both teams are so similar with respect to personnel and stats. Clemson has QB Tajh Boyd who threw for 3578 yards and 31 TDS with 10 picks. WVU has QB Gino Smith who threw for 3978 yards and 25 TDs with 7 picks. Clemson has WR Sammy Watkins who has 1153 receiving yards and 11 TDs. WVU has WR Stedman Bailey who has 1197 receiving yards and 11 TDs. Watkins averages 15 yards per catch while Bailey averages 18 yards per catch. How much close can it be? In addition, each team has a very capable second go to receiver. Clemson has WR DeAndre Hopkins who has 871 receiving yards and 4 TDs. WVU has WR Tavon Austin who has 1063 receiving yards and 4 TDs. Look closely at these numbers. The average yards per catch between Watkins and Hopkins is 14.5 yards. The average yards per catch between Bailey and Austin is 14.9 yards. All are capable of putting up big numbers and making the big play. And if that’s not enough, Clemson’s offense averages 440.6 yards and 33.6 points per game while WVU’s offense averages 459.6 yards and 34.9 points per game. Can they be any closer? And the records – Clemson is 10-3 (6-2 ACC) while WVU is 9-3 (5-2 Big East). I do have to say that after looking at the statistics of each conference, the ACC is the tougher conference this year and Clemson has certainly played more formidable opponents. I would even have to say that some of WVU’s national statistics are a little inflated based on the opponents they played. Will that translate into a win for Clemson? Well let’s see.

When Clemson has the ball: Advantage: Clemson

Clemson Rushing Offense is 60th in the nation. WVU Rushing Defense is 52nd in the nation.
Clemson Passing Offense is 21st in the nation. WVU Pass Defense is 30th in the nation.
Clemson Total Offense is 27th in the nation. WVU Total Defense is 27th in the nation.
Clemson Scoring Offense is 24th in the nation. WVU Scoring Defense is 63rd in the nation.

Tajh Boyd got his Mojo back against VT and should continue to keep it and use it in his favor against the Mountaineers. This really shows how mature Tajh is. It’s hard getting your confidence back and doing well after just having had your worst outing of the season going 11 of 29 for 83 yards against your in state rival. Against VT he threw for 240 yards completing 69% of his 29 passes. Some might think that his passing yardage was down some but when you are running the ball well, as Clemson did against VT, the need to pass becomes minimal and that’s exactly what happened. Andrea Ellington rushed for 125 yards averaging over 6 yards a carry. The offense was well balanced gaining 217 yards on the ground and 240 through the air - could not have been any better. Andre Hopkins had a good game with 92 receiving yards on 7 receptions while Sammy picked up 80 yards through the air. Dwayne Allen had 2 TDs in the effort as well. With three good receivers to go to and a running back who can put up the numbers, Clemson is one of the better balanced teams in the country. This will certainly keep the Mountaineer defense busy and honest. Another key to the Clemson victory over VT was ball control. Clemson controlled the ball very well and did not turn the ball over while VT turned the ball over three times. Turnovers are very key when playing a high caliber team like VT and that goes for WVU as well. WVU’s defense is led by Senior linebacker Najee Goode who leads the team in tackles with 84 and defensive lineman Bruce Irvin who leads the team in sacks with 7.5 and tackles for loss with 14. Starting safety Terence Garvin, who was the leading tackler in 2010, is out due to injury and the back-ups are very inexperienced and young. This should really play well if the Tigers decide to take advantage of this and go with the long pass. The Clemson offensive line will be challenged but with Tajh releasing the ball quickly when the Tigers are not running the ball, the offense should be able to move the ball well. There will be a lot of Tiger offense generated in this game. Look for Clemson to go deep with Sammy especially since WVU’s starting safety is out for this game due to injury.

When WVU has the ball: Advantage: Slight to WVU

WVU Rushing Offense is 98th in the nation. Clemson Rushing Defense is 82nd in the nation.
WVU Passing Offense is 7th in the nation. Clemson Pass Defense is 35th in the nation.
WVU Total Offense is 17th in the nation. Clemson Total Defense is 61st in the nation.
WVU Scoring Offense is 20th in the nation. Clemson Scoring Defense is 62nd in the nation.

Gino Smith runs the highly explosive Mountaineer offense much like Tajh Boyd runs the Clemson offense. He’s confident and likes to throw the ball. This year he has completed 314 out of 483 attempts for 3978 yards. He is 22 yards shy of becoming the first 4,000-yard passer in WVU history and he only needs 47 more yards to break Louisville’s Brian Brohm’s Big East record of 4,024 passing yards set in 2007. He has completed 65% of his pass attempts and has thrown for 25 TDs with only 7 interceptions. WVU doesn’t run the ball as much as they throw the ball and their RB position has been decimated recently. Starting freshman RB Dustin Garrison hurt his knee in practice last week and is out for the game. Vernard Roberts, one of the back-ups, is academically ineligible. I think WVU will still see if they can run against a Clemson defense that has been known to give up yards on the ground. They will use Shawne Alston and Andrew Buie to fill in but Dustin Garrison was a reliable pass catcher out of the backfield in the short passing game that WVU likes to run. Much like Clemson’s passing game, Gino Smith has two favorite receivers that he throws to, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Both are very dangerous and it will be a real challenge for the Clemson defensive backfield to corral these two. Austin is small and very elusive so I would have to say he is the one that I fear the most. The Clemson defensive front will be the key in this game. They will need to prevent the inside run while pressuring Smith from the inside out forcing him to scramble to the outside were Andre Branch, Malliciah Goodman and Kourtnei Brown need to be waiting. Keeping Gino Smith on the inside will limit his visibility downfield. If he gets to the outside too often he could do some damage downfield with his receivers. WVU’s offensive lineman have been inconsistent this season and are undersized. In fact, WVU has used less experienced lineman on occasion just so they have some size up front. The Clemson tackles should be able to take advantage of this. As I said, this is key and can win the game for Clemson. If Smith is allowed to get outside then he will complete passes and the score will be close. If the Tiger defense plays like they played against VT then the WVU offense will have a long night.

Special Teams: Advantage: Even

This should be exciting to watch. Clemson has Sammy Watkins and WVU has Tavon Austin. Austin was named an all-American for his special teams plays. Sammy averages 26.27 yards per kickoff return while Tavon averages 26.48 yards per return ranking them 19th and 17th respectively. Once again, another stat that is so similar. Clemson allows only 19.79 yards per kickoff return ranking them 27th in the nation while WVU ranks 108th allowing 24.52 yards per return. In addition, Tavon is averages 14.11 yards per punt return and ranks 5th in the nation in that category. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them break one for a TD. Let’s just hope it’s Sammy and not Tavon. Catanzaro has made 20 of 25 field goal attempts and ranks 15th nationally while Tyler Bitancurt has hit 16 of 22. Both are efficient. I don’t see a clear advantage here. Clemson should do well on kickoffs and WVU has the advantage on punt returns. With the high powered offense that both teams possess, field position shouldn’t be an issue. Either team can go 80 yards down the field just as well as 50 yards down the field.

Intangibles: Advantage: Clemson

I’m including coaching as an intangible here for the first time. Dabo brings with him a lot of excitement that the players feed off of and has a very talented staff not to mentioned the fact that he was recently named the Bobby Dodd National Coach of the Year. WVU, on the other hand, has Dana Holgorsen who has done a real good job but he is only in his first year at the helm. Clemson has also done very well this season against teams that pass the ball well. Both UNC and FSU had pass efficiency ratings better than WVU while VT and Wake Forest’s pass efficiency ratings were comparable. WVU has also had to deal with a lot of injuries this year. And if nothing else, this is the first time that Clemson has been to the Orange Bowl in exactly 30 years and they need to keep our undefeated Orange Bowl record intact. Come to think of it, I haven’t been to the Orange Bowl in 30 years either but unfortunately I can’t make the trip this time around.

Prediction: Clemson is a 3 point favorite. Flipper the Dolphin has picked WVU to win this game. Yea, so he picked the winner last year. Does that really mean anything. He’s a fish, OK, a mammal - whatever! He still hasn’t got a clue what football is. I’m back on Clemson’s side and I’m All In!!

WVU 25 Clemson 33

Rev O